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Demographic Trends and International Capital Flows in an Integrated World

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  • Luca Marchiori

    (CREA, University of Luxembourg)

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of projected demographic trends on international capital flows. The analysis builds upon a ten-region overlapping generations’model of the world economy where capital is mobile across regions. Results show that, over the first half of the century, emerging regions will finance the demand of capital coming from the developed world where population aging is relatively advanced. In particular, the findings suggest that in the coming decades China will be the world’s main creditor region. However, in the second half of the century, India will take over this leading position because of the predicted decline in the Chinese labor force. An additional analysis demonstrates that the economic consequences of demographic changes depend on the degree of capital market integration between regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Luca Marchiori, 2011. "Demographic Trends and International Capital Flows in an Integrated World," DEM Discussion Paper Series 11-05, Department of Economics at the University of Luxembourg.
    • Handle: RePEc:luc:wpaper:11-05
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    Cited by:

    1. Schön, Matthias & Stähler, Nikolai, 2020. "When old meets young? Germany's population ageing and the current account," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 315-336.
    2. Elisabetta Lodigiani & Luca Marchiori & I-Ling Shen, 2016. "Revisiting the Brain Drain Literature with Insights from a Dynamic General Equilibrium World Model," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(4), pages 557-573, April.
    3. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/6dhper3pho8nspmsluhrt4lcd8 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Ruppert, Kilian & Stähler, Nikolai, 2020. "Household savings, capital investments and public policies: What drives the German current account?," Discussion Papers 41/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. Frederic Ganon & Gilles Le Garrec & Vincent Touzé, 2016. "Aging, international capital flows and long-run convergence," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2016-09, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    6. Haysetta Doresa Shuler & Kimily Faulk & Barbara Hidleburg-Johnson & Demetrice Williams, 2016. "Engaging Diverse Generations in the 21st Century Workplace," International Journal of Business Research and Management (IJBRM), Computer Science Journals (CSC Journals), vol. 7(3), pages 31-39, July.
    7. Beladi, Hamid & Sinha, Chaitali & Kar, Saibal, 2016. "To educate or not to educate: Impact of public policies in developing countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 94-101.
    8. Hassan B. Ghassan & Hassan R. Alhajhoj & Faruk Balli, 2022. "Bi-demographic and current account dynamics using SVAR model: evidence from Saudi Arabia," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1327-1363, August.
    9. Gannon, Frédéric & Le Garrec, Gilles & Touzé, Vincent, 2020. "The South's demographic transition and international capital flows in a financially integrated world economy," Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 86(1), pages 1-45, March.
    10. Ruppert, Kilian & Stähler, Nikolai, 2022. "What drives the German current account? Household savings, capital investments and public policies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    11. Ghassan, Hassan & Alhajhoj, Hassan R. & Balli, Faruk, 2018. "Bi-Demographic Changes and Current Account using SVAR Modeling: Evidence from Saudi Arabia," MPRA Paper 93013, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Feb 2019.
    12. Peeters, Marga, 2012. "Asymmetric demographic pressure in South-Mediterranean versus North-Mediterranean economies and its impact on international gross capital flows," MPRA Paper 39635, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5mcsclpvpm8lsadm6engnbebt7 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6dhper3pho8nspmsluhrt4lcd8 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Marchiori, Luca & Pierrard, Olivier, 2017. "How does global demand for financial services promote domestic growth in Luxembourg? A dynamic general equilibrium analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 103-123.
    16. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5mcsclpvpm8lsadm6engnbebt7 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Leimbach Marian & Baumstark Lavinia & Luderer Gunnar, 2015. "The Role of Time Preferences in Explaining the Long-Term Pattern of International Trade," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 15(1), pages 83-106, March.
    18. Hassan Belkacem Ghassan & Hassan Rafdan Al-Hajhoj & Faruk Balli, 2019. "Bi-Demographic Changes and Current Account using SVAR Modeling: Evidence from Saudi Economy," Working Papers hal-01742574, HAL.
    19. Marian Leimbach & Nico Bauer, 2022. "Capital markets and the costs of climate policies," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 24(3), pages 397-420, July.
    20. Turnovsky, Stephen J., 2019. "Demographic structures, savings, and international capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 1-1.
    21. Hassan B. Ghassan & Hassan R. Al-Hajhoj & Faruk Balli, 2018. "Bi-Demographic Changes and Current Account using SVAR Modeling," Papers 1803.11161, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2019.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demographic trends; capital flows; overlapping generations; general equilibrium; multi-regional model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models

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