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Aging and Economic Growth: The Role of Factor Markets and of Fundamental Pension Reforms

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  • Alexander Ludwig

    (Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA))

Abstract

This paper analyzes the implications of demographic change for economic growth in di®erent countries. Quantitative projections are based on a multi-country over- lapping generations model that is augmented with actual demographic data and pro- jections for di®erent OECD regions. According to the simulation results, per capita incomes decline substantially when aging processes peak in some regions and di®er- ences between regions are quite large. Additional capital formation and increases in labor supply resulting from a fundamental pension reform are found to mitigate but not to solve the problem.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander Ludwig, 2005. "Aging and Economic Growth: The Role of Factor Markets and of Fundamental Pension Reforms," MEA discussion paper series 05094, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    • Handle: RePEc:mea:meawpa:05094
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    14. Alexander Ludwig, 2005. "Moment estimation in Auerbach-Kotlikoff models: How well do they match the data?," MEA discussion paper series 05093, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    15. Futagami, Koichi & Nakajima, Tetsuya, 2001. "Population Aging and Economic Growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 31-44, January.
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    17. Ludwig, Alexander, 2004. "Improving Tatonnement Methods for Solving Heterogeneous Agent Models," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 04-29, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    18. Axel Börsch‐Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2006. "Ageing, Pension Reform and Capital Flows: A Multi‐Country Simulation Model," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(292), pages 625-658, November.
    19. Ludwig, Alexander, 2004. "Improving Tatonnement Methods for Solving Heterogeneous Agent Models," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 04-29, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    20. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Ludwig, Alexander & Winter, Joachim, 2004. "Aging, Pension Reform, and Capital Flows:," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 04-65, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
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    22. Razin, Assaf & Sadka, Efraim, 1999. "Migration and pension with international capital mobility," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 141-150, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Schimke, Antje, 2014. "Aging workforce and firm growth in the context of "extreme" employment growth events," Working Paper Series in Economics 54, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Department of Economics and Management.
    2. Marianna Brunetti & Costanza Torricelli, 2010. "Demographics and asset returns: does the dynamics of population ageing matter?," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 193-219, March.
    3. Emese Kreiszné Hudák & Péter Varga & Viktor Várpalotai, 2015. "The macroeconomic impacts of demographic changes in Hungary in the context of the European Union," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 14(2), pages 89-127.
    4. Bielecki, Marcin & Goraus, Karolina & Hagemejer, Jan & Tyrowicz, Joanna, 2016. "Decreasing fertility vs increasing longevity: Raising the retirement age in the context of ageing processes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 125-143.
    5. Schimke, Antje, 2012. "Entrepreneurial aging and employment growth in the context of extreme growth events," Working Paper Series in Economics 39, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Department of Economics and Management.
    6. Marcin Bielecki & Karolina Goraus & Jan Hagemejer & Joanna Tyrowicz, 2014. "The Sooner The Better - The Welfare Effects of the Retirement Age Increase Under Various Pension Schemes," Working Papers 2014-12, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    7. Schimke, Antje, 2014. "Ageing workforce and firm growth in the context of “extreme” employment growth events," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 86-100.
    8. Jan Hagemejer & Marcin Bielecki & Karolina Goraus & Joanna Tyrowicz, 2014. "The Sooner The Better - The Welfare Effects of the Retirement Age Increase Under Various Pension Schemes," EcoMod2014 6868, EcoMod.
    9. repec:cbh:journl:v:14:y:2015:i:2:p:89-127 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Schön, Matthias, 2020. "Long-term outlook for the German statutory pension system," Discussion Papers 22/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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