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Reconciling the Estimates of Potential Migration into the Enlarged European Union

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  • Zaiceva, Anzelika

    (University of Florence)

Abstract

This paper briefly reviews the existing literature on potential migration into the enlarged European Union, reconciles the results with recent evidence and presents an additional migration scenario. The estimation procedure accounts for both sending and receiving countries' unobserved heterogeneity, and in the simulations a counterfactual scenario is calculated, in which all EU member states introduce free movement of workers simultaneously in 2011. The results suggest that the overall level of migration from the East will amount to around 1 per cent of the EU15 population within a decade after enlargement, and that the legal introduction of free movement of workers will not increase immigration significantly. These findings are compared both with the previous literature and emerging evidence.

Suggested Citation

  • Zaiceva, Anzelika, 2006. "Reconciling the Estimates of Potential Migration into the Enlarged European Union," IZA Discussion Papers 2519, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp2519
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Baas, Timo & Brücker, Herbert, 2012. "The macroeconomic consequences of migration diversion: Evidence for Germany and the UK," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 180-194.
    2. Michael Fertig & Martin Kahanec, 2013. "Mobility in an enlarging European Union: Projections of potential flows from EU's eastern neighbors and Croatia," Discussion Papers 18, Central European Labour Studies Institute (CELSI).
    3. Kahanec, Martin & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2008. "Migration in an Enlarged EU: A Challenging Solution?," IZA Discussion Papers 3913, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Olha Ryndzak, 2019. "Evaluation of a Population’s Migration Potential as an Important Component of Migration Policy," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-14, July.
    5. Silasi, Grigore & Simina, Ovidiu Laurian, 2007. "Romania, a Country in Need of Workers? The Bitter Taste of “Strawberry Jam”," MPRA Paper 14855, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 Apr 2009.
    6. Gabriel Felbermayr & Wido Geis & Wilhelm Kohler, 2014. "Restrictive Immigration Policy in Germany: Pains and Gains Foregone?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: European Economic Integration, WTO Membership, Immigration and Offshoring, chapter 12, pages 395-419, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Andrea Grabmayer & Andrea Hartmann & Maria Thalhammer, 2009. "Labour Mobility within the EU in the Context of Enlargement and the Functioning of the Transitional Arrangements," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 35641.
    8. Silasi, Grigore & Simina, Ovidiu Laurian, 2007. "The Bitter Taste of Strawberry Jam: Distortions on Romanian Labour Market beyond 2007," MPRA Paper 11184, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2008.
    9. Vasily Astrov & Mario Holzner & Stefan Jestl & Michael Landesmann & Isilda Mara & Roman Römisch & Robert Stehrer & Hermine Vidovic, 2019. "Bevölkerungs- und Wirtschaftsentwicklung in den mittel- und osteuropäischen Ländern," wiiw Research Reports in German language 13, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    10. Vladimir Borgy & Xavier Chojnicki & Gilles Le Garrec & Cyrille Schwellnus, 2010. "Macroeconomic Consequences of Global Endogenous Migration: a General Equilibrium Analysis," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 97-98, pages 13-39.
    11. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2013. "Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Herbst 2013," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 80(43), pages 3-77.
    12. Silasi, Grigore & Simina, Ovidiu Laurian, 2008. "Romania and the new economy of migration: costs, decision, networks, development," MPRA Paper 41937, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Vladimir Gligorov, 2009. "Mobility and Transition in Integrating Europe," Human Development Research Papers (2009 to present) HDRP-2009-15, Human Development Report Office (HDRO), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), revised Apr 2009.
    14. Michael Fertig & Martin Kahanec, 2015. "Projections of potential flows to the enlarging EU from Ukraine, Croatia and other Eastern neighbors," IZA Journal of Migration and Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-27, December.
    15. David G. Blanchflower & Chris Shadforth, 2009. "Fear, Unemployment and Migration," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(535), pages 136-182, February.
    16. Anzelika Zaiceva & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2008. "Scale, diversity, and determinants of labour migration in Europe," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 24(3), pages 428-452, Autumn.
    17. Khrystyna FOGEL, 2015. "The multistage nature of labour migration from Eastern and Central Europe (experience of Ukraine, Poland, United Kingdom and Germany during the 2002-2011 period)," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 6, pages 55-81, December.
    18. David G. Blanchflower, 2009. "International Evidence on Well-Being," NBER Chapters, in: Measuring the Subjective Well-Being of Nations: National Accounts of Time Use and Well-Being, pages 155-226, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2013. "Konjunktur zieht an – Haushaltsüberschüsse sinnvoll nutzen," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(20), pages 03-60, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    migration extrapolations; EU enlargement; panel data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

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