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Global Demographic Trends

In: Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging

Author

Listed:
  • Attanasio, O.
  • Bonfatti, A.
  • Kitao, S.
  • Weber, G.

Abstract

In this chapter we review the recent literature on the effects of changing global demographic trends on consumption, factor prices and social security. We also construct an overlapping generation model with four regions of the world. The model is calibrated so that we match some basic statistics of the last few decades. We assume that the model was in a steady state in 1990, input projected demographic trends, which converge to common values across regions by 2200, and make suitable assumptions on productivity profiles and total factor productivity. This allows us to study the evolution of factor prices, current accounts, and welfare during the transition and explore the differences between open and closed economies, when we limit factor mobility to capital mobility and make different assumptions about future trends in demographics and productivity.

Suggested Citation

  • Attanasio, O. & Bonfatti, A. & Kitao, S. & Weber, G., 2016. "Global Demographic Trends," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 179-235, Elsevier.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:hapoch:v1_179
    DOI: 10.1016/bs.hespa.2016.09.006
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    2. Schön, Matthias, 2020. "Demographic change and the rate of return in PAYG pension systems," Discussion Papers 57/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. Heylen, Freddy & Mareels, Marthe & Van Langenhove, Christophe, 2024. "Long-run perspectives on r-g in OECD countries: An empirical analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    4. Auerbach, Alan & Kueng, Lorenz & Lee, Ronald & Yatsynovich, Yury, 2018. "Propagation and smoothing of shocks in alternative social security systems," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 91-105.
    5. Liu, Weifeng Larry, 2022. "Demographic change, national saving and international capital flows," Conference papers 333413, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    6. Hua Chai & Mr. Jun I Kim, 2018. "Demographics, Pension Systems and the Saving-Investment Balance," IMF Working Papers 2018/265, International Monetary Fund.
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    8. Jing You & Miguel Niño-Zarazúa, 2017. "Smoothing or strengthening the 'Great Gatsby curve'?: The intergenerational impact of China's New Rural Pension Scheme," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2017-199, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    9. Mădălina-Gabriela ANGHEL & Dragoș-Alexandru HAȘEGAN, 2021. "Statistical analysis on population ageing," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(2(627), S), pages 83-96, Summer.
    10. Schön, Matthias, 2020. "Long-term outlook for the German statutory pension system," Discussion Papers 22/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    11. Dr. Miriam Koomen & Dr. Laurence Wicht, 2020. "Demographics, pension systems, and the current account: an empirical assessment using the IMF current account model," Working Papers 2020-23, Swiss National Bank.
    12. Sika Peter & Vidová Jarmila, 2021. "Reality and expectations of old-age pension savings in the pension system of the Slovak Republic," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 21(4), pages 411-436, December.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capital flows; Demographic trends; Overlapping generations model; Social security reform; China; E21; F21; F41; J11;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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