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Population Aging and Global Capital Flows in a Parallel Universe

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  • Mr. Robin Brooks

Abstract

This paper explores the global impact of population aging, using a calibrated overlapping generations model of eight world regions to simulate the effects of historical and projected demographic trends on international capital flows. The simulations show that there will be a turning point in regional savings – investment balances between 2010 and 2030 when the European Union and North America will experience a substantial decline in savings relative to investment as their populations age rapidly. This shift will be financed by capital flows from less developed regions which are projected to become capital exporters.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Robin Brooks, 2000. "Population Aging and Global Capital Flows in a Parallel Universe," IMF Working Papers 2000/151, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2000/151
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    Keywords

    WP; interest rate; capital deepening; real GDP; population aging; international capital flows; EU current account; JAP relative; EU experience; age distribution; productivity parameter; balance in the EU; current account switch; Current account; Current account balance; Aging; Current account deficits; Demographic change; North America; Global; Africa;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements

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