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Labor Migration: Macroeconomic and Demographic Outlook for Europe and Neighborhood Regions

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  • Vladimir Borgy
  • Xavier Chojnicki

Abstract

In this paper, we assess the demographic and economic consequences of migration in Europe and neighborhood countries using a multi-regions OLG model (INGENUE2). Our quantitative results shed some light on the long term consequences of migration on regions that are not at the same stage in the ageing process. Despite some improvement of their public pension system, it appears that a realistic migration scenario does not offset the effect of ageing in host regions; leaving room for pension reforms. The adverse economic consequences of emigration appear to be all the more important than the origin region is advanced in the ageing process. Finally, we consider and evaluate a policy of immigration in which the decline of the labor force in Western Europe is eschewed.

Suggested Citation

  • Vladimir Borgy & Xavier Chojnicki, 2009. "Labor Migration: Macroeconomic and Demographic Outlook for Europe and Neighborhood Regions," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 119, pages 115-153.
    • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiei:2009-3te
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    Cited by:

    1. Cécily Defoort & Carine Drapier, 2012. "Immigration and its dependence on the welfare system: the case of France," Working Papers hal-00995293, HAL.
    2. Haqiqi, Iman & Bahalou, Marziyeh, 2015. "A General Equilibrium Analysis of Unskilled Labor Entry and Skilled Labor Exit in Iran," MPRA Paper 95781, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Peeters, Marga, 2011. "“Better Safe than Sorry” - Individual Risk-free Pension Schemes in the European Union - Macroeconomic Benefits, the Mobile Working Citizen’s Perspective and Why Nots," MPRA Paper 33571, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Marga Peeters, 2012. "Better Safe than Sorry - Individual Risk-free Pension Schemes in the European Union," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 6(3), September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    CGEM; migration; international capital flows; neighborhood policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

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