IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/122115.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Analyzing Regional Disparities in E-Commerce Adoption Among Italian SMEs: Integrating Machine Learning Clustering and Predictive Models with Econometric Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Leogrande, Angelo
  • Drago, Carlo
  • Arnone, Massimo

Abstract

The article explores the diffusion of online sales tools among Italian enterprises with at least ten employees, considering regional inequalities through methods that help address economic policy. The study gives an overall assessment of the adoption of e-commerce among Italian SMEs, using multiple methods that help to identify regional disparities and provide insight for policymakers. The data were obtained from the ISTAT-BES database. Analysis was applied using the k-Means machine learning algorithm by comparing the Silhouette coefficient vs. the Elbow method. The elbow method reveals greater expository capacity, and the optimal number of clusters equals 3. The econometric analysis used the following methods: Panel Data with Fixed Effects, Panel Data with Random Effects, Weighted Least Squares-WLS, and Dynamic Panels at 1 Stage. The results show that cultural and creative employment and regular internet users are positively associated with SMEs active in e-commerce while negatively associated with the family's availability of at least one computer and internet connection. Finally, the article compares different machine learning algorithms to predict the future value of SMEs active in e-commerce. The results are discussed critically.

Suggested Citation

  • Leogrande, Angelo & Drago, Carlo & Arnone, Massimo, 2024. "Analyzing Regional Disparities in E-Commerce Adoption Among Italian SMEs: Integrating Machine Learning Clustering and Predictive Models with Econometric Analysis," MPRA Paper 122115, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:122115
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/122115/1/MPRA_paper_122115.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anna Gloria Billé & Alessio Tomelleri & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2023. "Forecasting regional GDPs: a comparison with spatial dynamic panel data models," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 530-551, October.
    2. Francesca Imperiale & Roberta Fasiello & Stefano Adamo, 2021. "Sustainability Determinants of Cultural and Creative Industries in Peripheral Areas," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-23, September.
    3. Miguel Salazar-Kovaleff & David Mauricio, 2024. "Ten Years of SME E-Commerce Performance Factors and Metrics, 2011-2021," Journal of Electronic Commerce in Organizations (JECO), IGI Global, vol. 22(1), pages 1-27, January.
    4. Martina Aronica & Rubinia Celeste Bonfanti & Davide Piacentino, 2021. "Social media adoption in Italian firms. Opportunities and challenges for lagging regions," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(4), pages 959-978, August.
    5. Monika Klein & Piotr Gutowski & Laima Gerlitz & Ewelina Gutowska, 2021. "Creative and Culture Industry in Baltic Sea Region Condition and Future," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-17, April.
    6. Chiara Bentivogli & Tommaso Ferraresi & Paola Monti & Renato Paniccià & Stefano Rosignoli, 2019. "Italian Regions in Global Value Chains: An Input-Output Approach," Politica economica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 1, pages 55-94.
    7. Marin Falk & Eva Hagsten, 2015. "E-commerce trends and impacts across Europe," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 220, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    8. Luciana Lazzeretti & Niccolò Innocenti & Francesco Capone, 2017. "The impact of related variety on the creative employment growth," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 58(3), pages 491-512, May.
    9. Idiano D’Adamo & Rocío González-Sánchez & Maria Sonia Medina-Salgado & Davide Settembre-Blundo, 2021. "E-Commerce Calls for Cyber-Security and Sustainability: How European Citizens Look for a Trusted Online Environment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-17, June.
    10. Burlina, Chiara & Casadei, Patrizia & Crociata, Alessandro, 2023. "Economic complexity and firm performance in the cultural and creative sector: evidence from Italian provinces," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 116979, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. Gong, Daqing & Liu, Shifeng & Liu, Jun & Ren, Long, 2020. "Who benefits from online financing? A sharing economy E-tailing platform perspective," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    12. Valeria Cirillo & Lucrezia Fanti & Andrea Mina & Andrea Ricci, 2023. "New digital technologies and firm performance in the Italian economy," Industry and Innovation, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 159-188, January.
    13. Magazzino, Cosimo & Drago, Carlo & Schneider, Nicolas, 2023. "Evidence of supply security and sustainability challenges in Nigeria’s power sector," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    14. Jan Frick, 2023. "Establishing Effective Business/ Stakeholder Networks to Underpin Regional Digital Strategies," International Journal of Business and Management, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 18(4), pages 1-63, August.
    15. Kuester, Sabine & Konya-Baumbach, Elisa & Schuhmacher, Monika C., 2018. "Get the show on the road: Go-to-market strategies for e-innovations of start-ups," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 65-81.
    16. Amalia Georgescu & Marc K Peter & Silvia Avasilcai, 2022. "A business ecosystem framework for SME development through associative and non-associative business structures in the digital age," Cogent Business & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 2143310-214, December.
    17. Reggi, Luigi & Arduini, Davide & Biagetti, Marco & Zanfei, Antonello, 2014. "How advanced are Italian regions in terms of public e-services? The construction of a composite indicator to analyze patterns of innovation diffusion in the public sector," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 514-529.
    18. Sabyasachi Mohapatra & Rohan Mukherjee & Arindam Roy & Anirban Sengupta & Amit Puniyani, 2022. "Can Ensemble Machine Learning Methods Predict Stock Returns for Indian Banks Using Technical Indicators?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-16, August.
    19. Georgeta Soava & Anca Mehedintu & Mihaela Sterpu, 2022. "Analysis and Forecast of the Use of E-Commerce in Enterprises of the European Union States," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-29, July.
    20. Arsalan Hussain & Minhas Akbar & Arfan Shahzad & Petra Poulova & Ahsan Akbar & Rohail Hassan, 2022. "E-Commerce and SME Performance: The Moderating Influence of Entrepreneurial Competencies," Administrative Sciences, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-16, January.
    21. Finn Christensen, 2019. "Comparative statics and heterogeneity," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 67(3), pages 665-702, April.
    22. Gurjeet Singh, 2022. "Machine Learning Models in Stock Market Prediction," Papers 2202.09359, arXiv.org.
    23. Falk, Martin & Hagsten, Eva, 2015. "E-commerce trends and impacts across Europe," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(PA), pages 357-369.
    24. Pérez-Amaral, Teodosio & Valarezo, Angel & López, Rafael & Garín-Muñoz, Teresa & Herguera, Iñigo, 2020. "E-commerce by individuals in Spain using panel data 2008–2016," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(4).
    25. Paolo Calvosa, 2023. "Characteristics of Games and Online Purchase Decisions: An Analysis in the Italian Gambling Market," International Journal of Business and Management, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 18(1), pages 173-173, February.
    26. Ade Octavia & Sigit Indrawijaya & Yayuk Sriayudha & Heriberta & Husni Hasbullah & Asrini, 2020. "Impact on E-Commerce Adoption on Entrepreneurial Orientation and Market Orientation in Business Performance of SMEs," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 10(5), pages 516-525, May.
    27. Sun, Meng, 2021. "The Internet and SME Participation in Exports," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    28. Massimiliano Mazzanti & Francesco Nicolli & Stefano Pareglio & Marco Quatrosi, 2022. "Adoption of Eco and Circular Economy-Innovation in Italy: exploring different firm profiles," Working Papers 2022.06, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    29. Mariangela Franch & Anna Irimiás & Federica Buffa, 2017. "Place identity and war heritage: managerial challenges in tourism development in Trentino and Alto Adige/Südtirol," Place Branding and Public Diplomacy, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 13(2), pages 119-135, May.
    30. Jianli Gao & Abu Bakkar Siddik & Sayyed Khawar Abbas & Muhammad Hamayun & Mohammad Masukujjaman & Syed Shah Alam, 2023. "Impact of E-Commerce and Digital Marketing Adoption on the Financial and Sustainability Performance of MSMEs during the COVID-19 Pandemic: An Empirical Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-21, January.
    31. Alessandro Muscio & Michele Scarpinato, 2007. "Employment and Wage Dynamics in Italian Industrial Districts," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(6), pages 765-777.
    32. Chunhui Yuan & Haitao Yang, 2019. "Research on K-Value Selection Method of K-Means Clustering Algorithm," J, MDPI, vol. 2(2), pages 1-10, June.
    33. Neelam Chawla & Basanta Kumar, 2022. "E-Commerce and Consumer Protection in India: The Emerging Trend," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 180(2), pages 581-604, October.
    34. Leogrande, Angelo & Costantiello, Alberto & Laureti, Lucio, 2022. "k-Means Clusterization and Machine Learning Prediction of European Most Cited Scientific Publications," MPRA Paper 114273, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    35. Luca Romagnoli & Paola Di Renzo & Luigi Mastronardi, 2022. "Modelling Income Drivers in Peripheral Municipalities: The Case of Italian Inner Areas," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-16, November.
    36. Ade Octavia & Sigit Indrawijaya & Yayuk Sriayudha & Heriberta & Husni Hasbullah & Asrini, 2020. "Impact on E-Commerce Adoption on Entrepreneurial Orientation and Market Orientation in Business Performance of SMEs," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 10(5), pages 516-525.
    37. Mensi, Walid & Boubaker, Ferihane Zaraa & Al-Yahyaee, Khamis Hamed & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2018. "Dynamic volatility spillovers and connectedness between global, regional, and GIPSI stock markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 230-238.
    38. Carlo Drago & Andrea Scozzari, 2023. "A Network-Based Analysis for Evaluating Conditional Covariance Estimates," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-19, January.
    39. Elia, Stefano & Giuffrida, Maria & Mariani, Marcello M. & Bresciani, Stefano, 2021. "Resources and digital export: An RBV perspective on the role of digital technologies and capabilities in cross-border e-commerce," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 158-169.
    40. Bernardina Algieri & Antonio à lvarez, 2023. "Assessing the ability of regions to attract foreign tourists: The case of Italy," Tourism Economics, , vol. 29(3), pages 788-811, May.
    41. Ernesto Cassetta & Umberto Monarca & Ivano Dileo & Claudio Di Berardino & Marco Pini, 2020. "The relationship between digital technologies and internationalisation. Evidence from Italian SMEs," Industry and Innovation, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(4), pages 311-339, April.
    42. Jinhyo Joseph Yun & Xiaofei Zhao & KyungBae Park & Lei Shi, 2020. "Sustainability Condition of Open Innovation: Dynamic Growth of Alibaba from SME to Large Enterprise," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-24, May.
    43. Sara Belisari & Daniele Binci & Andrea Appolloni, 2020. "E-Procurement Adoption: A Case Study about the Role of Two Italian Advisory Services," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-18, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Leogrande, Angelo, 2024. "Companies with at least 10 Employees Selling Online across the Italian Regions," MPRA Paper 120637, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Teruel Carrizosa, Mercedes & Coad, Alexander & Domnick, Clemens & Flachenecker, Florian & Harasztosi, Péter & Janiri, Mario Lorenzo & Pál, Rozália, 2021. "The birth of new high growth enterprises: Internationalisation through new digital technologies," EIB Working Papers 2021/02, European Investment Bank (EIB).
    3. Mercedes Teruel & Alex Coad & Clemens Domnick & Florian Flachenecker & Peter Harasztosi & Mario Lorenzo Janiri & Rozalia Pal, 2022. "The birth of new HGEs: internationalization through new digital technologies," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 804-845, June.
    4. Natália Barbosa, 2024. "Artificial Intelligence and exporting performance:Firm-level evidence from Portugal," GEE Papers 183, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised Sep 2024.
    5. Min Zhong & Zengtao Wang & Xing Ge, 2022. "Does Cross-Border E-Commerce Promote Economic Growth? Empirical Research on China’s Pilot Zones," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-18, September.
    6. Pham Quang Huy & Vu Kien Phuc, 2023. "Big data in relation with business intelligence capabilities and e-commerce during COVID-19 pandemic in accountant’s perspective," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 1-21, December.
    7. Liang Xiao & Feipeng Guo & Fumao Yu & Shengnan Liu, 2019. "The Effects of Online Shopping Context Cues on Consumers’ Purchase Intention for Cross-Border E-Commerce Sustainability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-24, May.
    8. Eric Bartelsman & Eva Hagsten & Michael Polder, 2018. "Micro Moments Database for cross‐country analysis of ICT, innovation, and economic outcomes," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 626-648, September.
    9. Martina Francesca Ferracane & Erik van der Marel, 2020. "Patterns of trade restrictiveness in online platforms: A first look," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(11), pages 2932-2959, November.
    10. Michael Peneder & Julia Bock-Schappelwein & Matthias Firgo & Oliver Fritz & Gerhard Streicher, 2017. "Ökonomische Effekte der Digitalisierung in Österreich," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 90(3), pages 177-192, March.
    11. ROMAN Angela & RUSU Valentina Diana, 2022. "Digital Technologies And The Performance Of Small And Medium Enterprises," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 17(3), pages 190-203, December.
    12. Tamara Bińczak & Filip Kaczmarek & Jakub Rybacki, 2018. "Determinants of E-Commerce Turnover in Europe: Consumer Protection Matters," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 3, pages 125-141.
    13. Yun Yang & Feng Hao & Xingchen Meng, 2024. "How does the national e-commerce demonstration city pilot policy boost economic growth? Evidence from China," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 929-975, November.
    14. Elżbieta Roszko-Wójtowicz & Gagan Deep Sharma & Barbara Dańska-Borsiak & Maria M. Grzelak, 2024. "Innovation-Driven E-Commerce Growth in the EU: An Empirical Study of the Propensity for Online Purchases and Sustainable Consumption," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-25, February.
    15. Cathles, Alison & Nayyar, Gaurav & Rückert, Désirée, 2020. "Digital technologies and firm performance: Evidence from Europe," EIB Working Papers 2020/06, European Investment Bank (EIB).
    16. Liang, Shuang & Tan, Qingmei, 2024. "Can the digital economy accelerates China's export technology upgrading? Based on the perspective of export technology complexity," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    17. Marino-Romero, Jorge Alberto & Palos-Sánchez, Pedro R. & Velicia-Martín, Félix, 2024. "Evolution of digital transformation in SMEs management through a bibliometric analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    18. Erik Canton & Federica Colasanti & Jorge Durán & Maria Garrone & Alexandr Hobza & Wouter Simons & Anneleen Vandeplas, 2021. "The Sectoral Impact of the COVID-19 Crisis. An Unprecedented and Atypical Crisis," European Economy - Economic Briefs 069, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    19. Björn Döhring & Atanas Hristov & Christoph Maier & Werner Roeger & Anna Thum-Thysen, 2021. "COVID-19 acceleration in digitalisation, aggregate productivity growth and the functional income distribution," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 571-604, July.
    20. Ouaida, Fadila & El Hajjar, Samer, 2018. "Assessing e-commerce productivity for French micro firms using propensity score matching," Economics Discussion Papers 2018-66, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    e-Commerce; Small and Medium Enterprises; Regional Inequalities; Panel Data; k-Means; Machine-Learning.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O3 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights
    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • O32 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O34 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Intellectual Property and Intellectual Capital
    • O38 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Government Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:122115. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.