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Nutrition Transition and the Structure of Global Food Demand

Author

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  • Christophe C. Gouel

    (CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique, ECO-PUB - Economie Publique - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - AgroParisTech, IFPRI - International Food Policy Research Institute [Washington] - CGIAR - Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR])

  • Houssein Guimbard

    (CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique)

Abstract

Estimating future demand for food is a critical aspect of global food security analyses. The process linking dietary changes to wealth is known as the nutrition transition and presents well-identified features that help to predict consumption changes in poor countries. This study proposes to represent the nutrition transition with a nonhomothetic, flexible-in-income, demand system. The resulting model is estimated statistically based on cross-sectional information from FAOSTAT. It captures the main features of the nutrition transition: rise in demand for calories associated with income growth; diversification of diets away from starchy staples; and a large increase in caloric demand for animal-based products, fats, and sweeteners. The estimated model is used to project food demand between 2010 and 2050 based on a set of plausible futures (trend projections and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios). The main results of these projections are: (1) global food demand will increase by 47%, less than half the growth in the previous four decades; (2) this growth will be attributable mainly to lower-middle-income and low-income countries; (3) the structure of global food demand will change over the period, with a doubling of demand for animal-based calories and a much smaller 19% increase in demand for starchy staples; and (4) the analysis of a range of population and income projections reveals important uncertainties: depending on the scenario, the projected increases in demand for animal-based and vegetal-based calories range from 74 to 114% and from 20 to 42%, respectively.

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  • Christophe C. Gouel & Houssein Guimbard, 2019. "Nutrition Transition and the Structure of Global Food Demand," Post-Print hal-02043169, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02043169
    DOI: 10.1093/ajae/aay030
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    4. Christophe Gouel & Houssein Guimbard, 2018. "Nutrition Transition and the Structure of Global Food Demand," Post-Print hal-01820555, HAL.
    5. Hillberry, Russell & Yang, Anton, 2020. "Implicit Utility and the Canonical Gravity Model," Conference papers 333172, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
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    19. Arendarczyk, Bart & Alexander, Peter & Brown, Calum & Rounsevell, Mark, 2023. "The impact of UK food and bioenergy imports on global land use under future socioeconomic scenarios (UK-SSPs)," 97th Annual Conference, March 27-29, 2023, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 334509, Agricultural Economics Society - AES.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bennett’s law; food security; food demand; nutrition transition;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices

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