IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/agecon/v45y2014i1p51-67.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The future of food demand: understanding differences in global economic models

Author

Listed:
  • Hugo Valin
  • Ronald D. Sands
  • Dominique van der Mensbrugghe
  • Gerald C. Nelson
  • Helal Ahammad
  • Elodie Blanc
  • Benjamin Bodirsky
  • Shinichiro Fujimori
  • Tomoko Hasegawa
  • Petr Havlik
  • Edwina Heyhoe
  • Page Kyle
  • Daniel Mason-D'Croz
  • Sergey Paltsev
  • Susanne Rolinski
  • Andrzej Tabeau
  • Hans van Meijl
  • Martin von Lampe
  • Dirk Willenbockel

Abstract

Understanding the capacity of agricultural systems to feed the world population under climate change requires projecting future food demand. This article reviews demand modeling approaches from 10 global economic models participating in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). We compare food demand projections in 2050 for various regions and agricultural products under harmonized scenarios of socioeconomic development, climate change, and bioenergy expansion. In the reference scenario (SSP2), food demand increases by 59–98% between 2005 and 2050, slightly higher than the most recent FAO projection of 54% from 2005/2007. The range of results is large, in particular for animal calories (between 61% and 144%), caused by differences in demand systems specifications, and in income and price elasticities. The results are more sensitive to socioeconomic assumptions than to climate change or bioenergy scenarios. When considering a world with higher population and lower economic growth (SSP3), consumption per capita drops on average by 9% for crops and 18% for livestock. The maximum effect of climate change on calorie availability is −6% at the global level, and the effect of biofuel production on calorie availability is even smaller.

Suggested Citation

  • Hugo Valin & Ronald D. Sands & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe & Gerald C. Nelson & Helal Ahammad & Elodie Blanc & Benjamin Bodirsky & Shinichiro Fujimori & Tomoko Hasegawa & Petr Havlik & Edwina Heyhoe, 2014. "The future of food demand: understanding differences in global economic models," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(1), pages 51-67, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:agecon:v:45:y:2014:i:1:p:51-67
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/agec.12089
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. B.C. O'Neill & T Carter & Kl Ebi & J. Edmonds & Stéphane Hallegatte & E. Kemp-Benedict & E. Kriegler & L. Mearns & R. Moss & K. Riahi & B. van Ruijven & D. van Vuuren, 2012. "Meeting Report of the Workshop on The Nature and Use of New Socioeconomic Pathways for Climate Change Research," CIRED Working Papers hal-00801931, HAL.
    2. Hermann Lotze-Campen & Martin Lampe & Page Kyle & Shinichiro Fujimori & Petr Havlik & Hans Meijl & Tomoko Hasegawa & Alexander Popp & Christoph Schmitz & Andrzej Tabeau & Hugo Valin & Dirk Willenbocke, 2014. "Impacts of increased bioenergy demand on global food markets: an AgMIP economic model intercomparison," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(1), pages 103-116, January.
    3. Seale, James L., Jr. & Regmi, Anita & Bernstein, Jason, 2003. "International Evidence On Food Consumption Patterns," Technical Bulletins 33580, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    4. Jorgenson, Dale W. & Goettle, Richard J. & Ho, Mun S. & Wilcoxen, Peter J., 2013. "Energy, the Environment and US Economic Growth," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 477-552, Elsevier.
    5. Seale, James L., Jr. & Regmi, Anita & Bernstein, Jason, 2003. "International Evidence On Food Consumption Patterns," Technical Bulletins 33580, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    6. Muhammad, Andrew & Meade, Birgit Gisela Saager & Regmi, Anita & Seale, James L., 2011. "International Evidence on Food Consumption Patterns: An Update Using 2005 International Comparison Program Data," Technical Bulletins 120252, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    7. Valin, Hugo & Havlik, Petr & Mosnier, Aline & Obersteiner, Michael, 2010. "Climate Change Mitigation And Future Food Consumption Patterns," 115th Joint EAAE/AAEA Seminar, September 15-17, 2010, Freising-Weihenstephan, Germany 116392, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    8. Gerald C. Nelson & Dominique Mensbrugghe & Helal Ahammad & Elodie Blanc & Katherine Calvin & Tomoko Hasegawa & Petr Havlik & Edwina Heyhoe & Page Kyle & Hermann Lotze-Campen & Martin Lampe & Daniel Ma, 2014. "Agriculture and climate change in global scenarios: why don't the models agree," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(1), pages 85-101, January.
    9. Preckel, Paul V. & Cranfield, John A.L. & Hertel, Thomas W., 2005. "Implicit Additive Preferences: A Generalization Of The Ces," Staff Papers 28646, Purdue University, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    10. Preckel, Paul V. & Cranfield, John A.L. & Hertel, Thomas W., 2005. "Implicit Additive Preferences: A Further Generalization Of The Ces," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19373, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    11. Lewbel, Arthur, 1991. "The Rank of Demand Systems: Theory and Nonparametric Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 711-730, May.
    12. Yu, Wusheng & Hertel, Thomas W. & Preckel, Paul V. & Eales, James S., 2004. "Projecting world food demand using alternative demand systems," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 99-129, January.
    13. Derek Headey & Shenggen Fan, 2008. "Anatomy of a crisis: the causes and consequences of surging food prices," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 375-391, November.
    14. Martin Lampe & Dirk Willenbockel & Helal Ahammad & Elodie Blanc & Yongxia Cai & Katherine Calvin & Shinichiro Fujimori & Tomoko Hasegawa & Petr Havlik & Edwina Heyhoe & Page Kyle & Hermann Lotze-Campe, 2014. "Why do global long-term scenarios for agriculture differ? An overview of the AgMIP Global Economic Model Intercomparison," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(1), pages 3-20, January.
    15. J. A. L. Cranfield & James S. Eales & Thomas W. Hertel & Paul V. Preckel, 2003. "Model selection when estimating and predicting consumer demands using international, cross section data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 353-364, April.
    16. Bennett, Merrill K., 1941. "Wheat in National Diets," Wheat Studies, Stanford University, Food Research Institute, vol. 18(02), pages 1-44, October.
    17. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685, December.
    18. Deaton, Angus S & Muellbauer, John, 1980. "An Almost Ideal Demand System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 312-326, June.
    19. Muhammad, Andrew & Meade, Birgit Gisela Saager, 2011. "International Evidence on Food Consumption Patterns: An Update Using 2005 International Comparison Program Data," Technical Bulletins 120252, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mun Ho & Wolfgang Britz & Ruth Delzeit & Florian Leblanc & Roberto Roson & Franziska Schuenemann & Matthias Weitzel, 2020. "Modelling Consumption and Constructing Long-Term Baselines in Final Demand," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 5(1), pages 63-108, June.
    2. Clements, Kenneth W. & Gao, Grace, 2015. "The Rotterdam demand model half a century on," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 91-103.
    3. Femenia, Fabienne, 2019. "A Meta-Analysis of the Price and Income Elasticities of Food Demand," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 68(2), June.
    4. Bjelle, Eivind Lekve & Wiebe, Kirsten S. & Többen, Johannes & Tisserant, Alexandre & Ivanova, Diana & Vita, Gibran & Wood, Richard, 2021. "Future changes in consumption: The income effect on greenhouse gas emissions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    5. Seale, James L. & Solano, Alexis A., 2012. "The changing demand for energy in rich and poor countries over 25years," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1834-1844.
    6. David Laborde & Simla Tokgoz & Lindsay Shutes & Hugo Valin, 2013. "Assessment framework and operational definitions for long-term scenarios," FOODSECURE Working papers 14, LEI Wageningen UR.
    7. Laura Cornelsen & Mario Mazzocchi & Rosemary Green & Alan D. Dangour & Richard D. Smith, 2016. "Estimating the Relationship between Food Prices and Food Consumption—Methods Matter," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 38(3), pages 546-561.
    8. Ole Boysen, 2019. "When does specification or aggregation across consumers matter for economic impact analysis models? An investigation into demand systems," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 137-172, January.
    9. Wainio, John & Dyck, John & Meade, Birgit Gisela Saager & Mitchell, Lorrarine & Zahniser, Steven & Arita, Shawn & Beckman, Jayson F. & Burfisher, Mary E., 2014. "Agriculture in the Trans-Pacific Partnership," Economic Research Report 188429, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    10. Martin Lampe & Dirk Willenbockel & Helal Ahammad & Elodie Blanc & Yongxia Cai & Katherine Calvin & Shinichiro Fujimori & Tomoko Hasegawa & Petr Havlik & Edwina Heyhoe & Page Kyle & Hermann Lotze-Campe, 2014. "Why do global long-term scenarios for agriculture differ? An overview of the AgMIP Global Economic Model Intercomparison," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(1), pages 3-20, January.
    11. Cheng, Zhen & Larochelle, Catherine, 2017. "Demand for staple foods in Niger and Nigeria: A three-stage approach," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258382, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    12. Bouët, Antoine & Femenia, Fabienne & Laborde, David, 2014. "On the role of demand systems in CGE simulations of trade reforms," Conference papers 332443, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    13. Yu, Wusheng & Hertel, Thomas W. & Preckel, Paul V. & Eales, James S., 2004. "Projecting world food demand using alternative demand systems," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 99-129, January.
    14. Kira Lancker & Julia Bronnmann, 2022. "Substitution Preferences for Fish in Senegal," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 82(4), pages 1015-1045, August.
    15. Valin, Hugo & Havlik, Petr & Mosnier, Aline & Obersteiner, Michael, 2012. "Impacts of Alternative Climate Change Mitigation Policies on Food Consumption under various Diet Scenarios," Conference papers 332253, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    16. Zhou, De & Yu, Xiaohua & Abler, David & Chen, Danhong, 2020. "Projecting meat and cereals demand for China based on a meta-analysis of income elasticities," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    17. Helin, Janne & Weikard, Hans-Peter, 2019. "A model for estimating phosphorus requirements of world food production," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    18. Kamel Elouhichi & Pascal Tillie & Aymeric Ricome & Sergio Gomez-Y-Paloma, 2020. "Modelling Farm-household Livelihoods in Developing Economies: Insights from three country case studies using LSMS-ISA data," JRC Research Reports JRC118822, Joint Research Centre.
    19. Choudhury, Samira & Headey, Derek D., 2016. "What drives diversification of national food supplies? A cross-country analysis," IFPRI discussion papers 1581, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    20. Zuzana Smeets Kristkova & Edward Smeets & Hans van Meijl, 2016. "Agricultural R&D investments, biofuel policy and food security – a CGE analysis," EcoMod2016 9966, EcoMod.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:agecon:v:45:y:2014:i:1:p:51-67. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iaaeeea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.