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Climate change favors rice production at higher elevations in Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • F. Castro-Llanos

    (International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT)
    Universidad del Valle)

  • G. Hyman

    (International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT)
    Spatial Informatics Group)

  • J. Rubiano

    (Universidad del Valle)

  • J. Ramirez-Villegas

    (International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT)
    CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), c/o CIAT
    University of Leeds)

  • H. Achicanoy

    (International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT))

Abstract

Rice (Oriza sativa) feeds nearly half of the world’s population. Regional and national studies in Asia suggest that rice production will suffer under climate change, but researchers conducted few studies for other parts of the world. This research identifies suitable areas for cultivating irrigated rice in Colombia under current climates and for the 2050s, according to the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. The methodology uses known locations of the crop, environmental variables, and maximum entropy and probabilistic methods to develop niche-based models for estimating the potential geographic distribution of irrigated rice. Results indicate that future climate change in Colombia could reduce the area that is suitable for rice production by 60%, from 4.4 to 1.8 million hectares. Low-lying rice production regions could be the most susceptible to changing environmental conditions, while mid-altitude valleys could see improvements in rice-growing conditions. In contrast to a country like China where rice production can move to higher latitudes, rice adaptation in tropical Colombia will favor higher elevations. These results suggest adaptation strategies for the Colombian rice sector. Farmers can adopt climate-resilient varieties or change water and agronomic management practices, or both. Other farmers may consider abandoning rice production for some other crop or activity.

Suggested Citation

  • F. Castro-Llanos & G. Hyman & J. Rubiano & J. Ramirez-Villegas & H. Achicanoy, 2019. "Climate change favors rice production at higher elevations in Colombia," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 24(8), pages 1401-1430, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:masfgc:v:24:y:2019:i:8:d:10.1007_s11027-019-09852-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11027-019-09852-x
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    2. Akpoti, Komlavi & Groen, Thomas & Dossou-Yovo, Elliott & Kabo-bah, Amos T. & Zwart, Sander J., 2022. "Climate change-induced reduction in agricultural land suitability of West-Africa's inland valley landscapes," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).

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