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Structural change as a key component for agricultural non-CO2 mitigation efforts

Author

Listed:
  • Stefan Frank

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

  • Robert Beach

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
    RTI International, Research Triangle Park)

  • Petr Havlík

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

  • Hugo Valin

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

  • Mario Herrero

    (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization)

  • Aline Mosnier

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

  • Tomoko Hasegawa

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
    National Institute for Environmental Studies)

  • Jared Creason

    (Environmental Protection Agency)

  • Shaun Ragnauth

    (Environmental Protection Agency)

  • Michael Obersteiner

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

Abstract

Agriculture is the single largest source of anthropogenic non-carbon dioxide (non-CO2) emissions. Reaching the climate target of the Paris Agreement will require significant emission reductions across sectors by 2030 and continued efforts thereafter. Here we show that the economic potential of non-CO2 emissions reductions from agriculture is up to four times as high as previously estimated. In fact, we find that agriculture could achieve already at a carbon price of 25 $/tCO2eq non-CO2 reductions of around 1 GtCO2eq/year by 2030 mainly through the adoption of technical and structural mitigation options. At 100 $/tCO2eq agriculture could even provide non-CO2 reductions of 2.6 GtCO2eq/year in 2050 including demand side efforts. Immediate action to favor the widespread adoption of technical options in developed countries together with productivity increases through structural changes in developing countries is needed to move agriculture on track with a 2 °C climate stabilization pathway.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Frank & Robert Beach & Petr Havlík & Hugo Valin & Mario Herrero & Aline Mosnier & Tomoko Hasegawa & Jared Creason & Shaun Ragnauth & Michael Obersteiner, 2018. "Structural change as a key component for agricultural non-CO2 mitigation efforts," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-8, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:9:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-018-03489-1
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-03489-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Muhammad, Andrew & Meade, Birgit Gisela Saager, 2011. "International Evidence on Food Consumption Patterns: An Update Using 2005 International Comparison Program Data," Technical Bulletins 120252, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    2. Vermont, Bruno & De Cara, Stéphane, 2010. "How costly is mitigation of non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture?: A meta-analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(7), pages 1373-1386, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Stefan Frank & Petr Havlík & Elke Stehfest & Hans Meijl & Peter Witzke & Ignacio Pérez-Domínguez & Michiel Dijk & Jonathan C. Doelman & Thomas Fellmann & Jason F. L. Koopman & Andrzej Tabeau & Hugo Va, 2019. "Agricultural non-CO2 emission reduction potential in the context of the 1.5 °C target," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 66-72, January.
    2. Fekete, Hanna & Kuramochi, Takeshi & Roelfsema, Mark & Elzen, Michel den & Forsell, Nicklas & Höhne, Niklas & Luna, Lisa & Hans, Frederic & Sterl, Sebastian & Olivier, Jos & van Soest, Heleen & Frank,, 2021. "A review of successful climate change mitigation policies in major emitting economies and the potential of global replication," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    3. Ana Maria Loboguerrero & Bruce M. Campbell & Peter J. M. Cooper & James W. Hansen & Todd Rosenstock & Eva Wollenberg, 2019. "Food and Earth Systems: Priorities for Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation for Agriculture and Food Systems," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-26, March.
    4. Nidhi Kalra & Edmundo Molina-Pérez & James Syme & Fernando Esteves & Hermilio Cortés & Mateo Tonatiuh Rodríguez-Cervantes & Víctor Manuel Espinoza-Juárez & Marcela Jaramillo & Richard Baron & Claudio , 2023. "The Benefits and Costs of Reaching Net Zero Emissions in Latin America and the Caribbean," Post-Print halshs-04458161, HAL.
    5. Tianyi Cai & Degang Yang & Xinhuan Zhang & Fuqiang Xia & Rongwei Wu, 2018. "Study on the Vertical Linkage of Greenhouse Gas Emission Intensity Change of the Animal Husbandry Sector between China and Its Provinces," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-18, July.
    6. Hans Jensen & Ignacio Pérez Domínguez & Thomas Fellmann & Paul Lirette & Jordan Hristov & George Philippidis, 2019. "Economic Impacts of a Low Carbon Economy on Global Agriculture: The Bumpy Road to Paris," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-17, April.

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