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Changes in the Structure of Global Food Demand

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  • John A.L. Cranfield
  • Thomas W. Hertel
  • James S. Eales
  • Paul V. Preckel

Abstract

A newly developed demand system is used to estimate the response of food and food product demand to per capita expenditure changes. The resulting Engel elasticities are then used to project food and food product demand in 2020 assuming per capita expenditure and population changes. Results suggest that while food expenditure is projected to grow, it accounts for a smaller proportion of total expenditure. Further analysis indicates change in the composition of food demand away from a grain and towards livestock is projected to occur in lower income countries in 2020.
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  • John A.L. Cranfield & Thomas W. Hertel & James S. Eales & Paul V. Preckel, 1998. "Changes in the Structure of Global Food Demand," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(5), pages 1042-1050.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:80:y:1998:i:5:p:1042-1050
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    1. Maureen T. Rimmer & Alan A. Powell, 1992. "Demand Patterns Across the Development Spectrum: Estimates for the AIDADS System," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers op-75, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    2. James Banks & Richard Blundell & Arthur Lewbel, 1997. "Quadratic Engel Curves And Consumer Demand," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 527-539, November.
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    1. Powell, Alan A. & McLaren, Keith R. & Pearson, K.R. & Rimmer, Maureen T., 2002. "Cobb-Douglas Utility - Eventually!," Conference papers 330977, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    2. Wei-Ming Tian & Zhang-Yue Zhou, 2011. "Fluctuations of Prices in the World Grain Market: Policy Responses by the Chinese Government," Chapters, in: Lilai Xu (ed.), China’s Economy in the Post-WTO Environment, chapter 8, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Bakhshoodeh, M., 2010. "Impacts of world prices transmission to domestic rice markets in rural Iran," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 12-19, February.
    4. Christophe Gouel & Houssein Guimbard, 2018. "Nutrition Transition and the Structure of Global Food Demand," Post-Print hal-01820555, HAL.
    5. Lips, Markus & Rieder, Peter, 2002. "Endogenous adjusted Output Quotas - The Abolishment of the Raw Milk Quota in the European Union," Conference papers 330980, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    6. Delgado, Christopher L. & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Meijer, Siet, 2001. "Livestock To 2020: The Revolution Continues," 2001: International Trade in Livestock Products Symposium, January 2001, Auckland, New Zealand 14560, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    7. Ujjayant Chakravorty & Marie-Hélène Hubert & Linda Nøstbakken, 2009. "Fuel Versus Food," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 645-663, September.
      • Chakravorty, Ujjayant & Hubert, Marie-Helene & Nostbakken, Linda, 2009. "Fuel versus Food," Working Papers 2009-20, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
      • Ujjayant Chakravorty & Marie-Hélène Hubert & Linda Nøstbakken, 2009. "Fuel Versus Food," Post-Print halshs-01117673, HAL.
    8. Yu, Wusheng & Hertel, Thomas W. & Preckel, Paul V. & Eales, James S., 2004. "Projecting world food demand using alternative demand systems," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 99-129, January.
    9. Christophe Gouel & Houssein Guimbard, 2019. "Nutrition Transition and the Structure of Global Food Demand," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 101(2), pages 383-403.
    10. Nilson de Paula & Huáscar Pessali, 2014. "Agricultural Trade Negotiations and the Challenges of Food Security," Agrarian South: Journal of Political Economy, Centre for Agrarian Research and Education for South, vol. 3(3), pages 313-335, December.
    11. Regmi, Anita & Seale, James L., Jr., 2010. "Cross-Price Elasticities of Demand Across 114 Countries," Technical Bulletins 59870, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    12. Tey, (John) Yeong-Sheng & Shamsudin, Mad Nasir & Mohamed, Zainalabidin & Abdullah, Amin Mahir & Radam, Alias, 2008. "Demand analyses of rice in Malaysia," MPRA Paper 15062, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Ehui, Simeon K. & Delgado, Christopher L., 1999. "Economy-wide impacts of technological change in the agro-food production and processing sectors in Sub- Saharan Africa," MTID discussion papers 38, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    14. Ludena, Carlos E., 2004. "Impact Of Productivity Growth In Crops And Livestock On World Food Trade Patterns," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20366, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    15. Fabiosa, Jacinto F., 2006. "Growing Demand for Animal-Protein-Source Products in Indonesia: Trade Implications," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21417, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    16. Delgado, Christopher L. & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Wada, Nikolas, 2003. "Meating and Milking Global Demand: Stakes for Small-Scale Farmers in Developing Countries," 2003: The Livestock Revolution: A Pathway from Poverty?, 13 August 2003 124009, Crawford Fund.
    17. Graham, Brett & Tyers, Rodney, 2002. "Global Population Forecast Errors, Economic Performance and Food Demand: Preliminary Simulations," 2002 Conference (46th), February 13-15, 2002, Canberra, Australia 125091, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    18. Nin Pratt, Alejandro & Hertel, Thomas W. & Foster, Kenneth A. & Rae, Allan N., 2001. "Productivity Growth And Catching-Up: Implications For China'S Trade In Livestock Products," 2001 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Chicago, IL 20590, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    19. Bouët, Antoine & Femenia, Fabienne & Laborde, David, 2014. "On the role of demand systems in CGE simulations of trade reforms," Conference papers 332443, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    20. Hansen, James M., 2012. "Assessing the Impact of Southeast Asia's Increasing Meat Demand on Global Feed Demand and Prices," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124683, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    21. White, Robin R. & Brady, Michael, 2014. "Can consumers’ willingness to pay incentivize adoption of environmental impact reducing technologies in meat animal production?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(P1), pages 41-49.
    22. Yu, Wusheng & Hertel, Thomas W. & Preckel, Paul V. & Eales, James S., 2004. "Projecting world food demand using alternative demand systems," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 99-129, January.
    23. Tey, (John) Yeong-Sheng, 2008. "Household expenditure on food at home in Malaysia," MPRA Paper 15031, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Cao, Li‐Juan & Tian, Wei‐Ming & Wang, Ji‐Min & Malcolm, Bill & Liu, Hong‐Bo & Zhou, Zhang‐Yue, 2013. "Recent Food Consumption Trends in China and Trade," Australasian Agribusiness Review, University of Melbourne, Department of Agriculture and Food Systems, vol. 21, pages 1-30.
    25. Vasant, P. Ghandi & Zhang-Yue, Zhou, 2010. "Rising demand for livestock products in India: nature, patterns and implications," Australasian Agribusiness Review, University of Melbourne, Department of Agriculture and Food Systems, vol. 18, pages 1-33.

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