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The Impact of Syrian Refugees on the Labor Market in Neighboring Countries: Empirical Evidence from Jordan

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  • Ali Fakih
  • May Ibrahim

Abstract

This paper analyzes time-sensitive data on a humanitarian crisis in the Middle East. It aims to assess the impact of the steep influx of Syrian refugees into Jordan on the country’s labor market since the onset of the conflict in Syria (March 2011). As of August 2014, nearly 3 million registered Syrians have sought refuge in neighboring countries (Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, and Turkey), according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). Jordan and Lebanon are hosting the majority of them. This paper utilizes data regarding unemployment rates, employment rates, labor force participation, the number of refugees, and economic activity at the level of governorates. The Vector Autoregressive (VAR) methodology is used to examine time series data from the most affected governorates in Jordan. The empirical results of Granger causality tests and impulse response functions show that there is no relationship between the influx of Syrian refugees and the Jordanian labor market. Our results are verified through a set of robustness checks.

Suggested Citation

  • Ali Fakih & May Ibrahim, 2016. "The Impact of Syrian Refugees on the Labor Market in Neighboring Countries: Empirical Evidence from Jordan," CIRANO Working Papers 2016s-05, CIRANO.
    • Handle: RePEc:cir:cirwor:2016s-05
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    Cited by:

    1. Anda David & Mohamed Ali Marouani & Charbel Nahas & Björn Nilsson, 2020. "The economics of the Syrian refugee crisis in neighbouring countries: The case of Lebanon," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(1), pages 89-109, January.
    2. Fallah, Belal & Krafft, Caroline & Wahba, Jackline, 2019. "The impact of refugees on employment and wages in Jordan," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 203-216.
    3. Akgündüz, Yusuf Emre & Torun, Huzeyfe, 2020. "Two and a half million Syrian refugees, tasks and capital intensity," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    4. Yusuf Emre Akgündüz & Marcel van den Berg & Wolter Hassink, 2018. "The Impact of the Syrian Refugee Crisis on Firm Entry and Performance in Turkey," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 32(1), pages 19-40.
    5. Alexandra M. Espinosa & Ignacio Díaz-Emparanza, 2023. "Assessing the Spanish immigration policy with frequency-wise causality in Hosoya’s sense," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(1), pages 111-147, July.
    6. Evren Ceritoglu & H. Burcu Gurcihan Yunculer & Huzeyfe Torun & Semih Tumen, 2017. "The impact of Syrian refugees on natives’ labor market outcomes in Turkey: evidence from a quasi-experimental design," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 6(1), pages 1-28, December.
    7. Oğuz Esen & Ayla Oğuş Binatlı, 2017. "The Impact of Syrian Refugees on the Turkish Economy: Regional Labour Market Effects," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-12, October.
    8. Anda David & Mohamed Ali Marouani & Charbel Nahas & Björn Nilsson, 2018. "The economics of the Syrian refugee crisis in neighboring countries," Working Papers 20180001, UMR Développement et Sociétés, Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement.
    9. Salah Abosedra & Ali Fakih & Nathir Haimoun, 2020. "Ethnic Divisions And The Onset Of Civil Wars In Syria," Working Papers 1384, Economic Research Forum, revised 20 Mar 2020.
    10. Björn Nilsson & Racha Ramadan, 2020. "Migration and Inequalities Around the Mediterranean Sea," Working Papers 1390, Economic Research Forum, revised 20 Apr 2020.
    11. Pascal L. Ghazalian, 2022. "The effects of the Arab Spring on female labour force participation in the MENA region," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(4), pages 869-900, October.
    12. Mohammad A. Sumadi & Nadia A. Alkhateeb & Ahmad Suliman Alnsour & Meimuneh Sumadi, 2023. "Perceptions and Attitudes Towards Syrian Refugee on Socioeconomic Sectors: Evidence from Jordan," Journal of International Migration and Integration, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 865-884, June.
    13. Verme, Paolo & Schuettler, Kirsten, 2021. "The impact of forced displacement on host communities: A review of the empirical literature in economics," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    14. Ahmad AlShwawra, 2021. "Syrian Refugees’ Integration Policies in Jordanian Labor Market," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-16, June.
    15. Michael Christian Lehmann, 2023. "Macroeconomic volatility and anti‐refugee violence in developing countries: Evidence from commodity price shocks," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(2), pages 992-1012, May.
    16. Tumen, Semih, 2018. "The Impact of Low-Skill Refugees on Youth Education," IZA Discussion Papers 11869, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Rozo, Sandra V. & Sviatschi, Micaela, 2021. "Is a refugee crisis a housing crisis? Only if housing supply is unresponsive," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    18. Sandra Rozo & Micaela Sviastchi, 2018. "Are Refugees a Burden? Impacts of Refugee Inflows on Hosts Consumption Expenditures," Working Papers 2018-3, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    19. Ghassan Dibeh & Ali Fakih & Walid Marrouch, 2020. "Tourism–growth nexus under duress: Lebanon during the Syrian crisis," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(3), pages 353-370, May.
    20. Tara M Powell & Najat Qushua, 2023. "A qualitative study of a mental health awareness intervention for Jordanian and resettled Syrian refugees in host communities," International Journal of Social Psychiatry, , vol. 69(1), pages 161-172, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forced refugees; Host country; Labor market; VAR model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • N45 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - Asia including Middle East

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