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Identifying macroeconomic effects of refugee migration to Germany

Author

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  • Weber, Enzo

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

  • Weigand, Roland

    (IAB)

Abstract

"This study investigates impacts of migration on the German economy, explicitly distinguishing refugee and non-refugee immigration. We propose a macroeconometric modelling approach complemented by instrumental variable techniques. We find that non-refugee immigration has more beneficial medium-run effects on GDP and the labour market." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Suggested Citation

  • Weber, Enzo & Weigand, Roland, 2016. "Identifying macroeconomic effects of refugee migration to Germany," IAB-Discussion Paper 201620, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    • Handle: RePEc:iab:iabdpa:201620
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Ekrame Boubtane & Dramane Coulibaly & Christophe Rault, 2013. "Immigration, Growth, and Unemployment: Panel VAR Evidence from OECD Countries," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 27(4), pages 399-420, December.
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    6. Ruist, Joakim, 2013. "The labor market impact of refugee immigration in Sweden 1999–2007," SULCIS Working Papers 2013:1, Stockholm University, Linnaeus Center for Integration Studies - SULCIS.
    7. Gabriel Felbermayr & Wido Geis & Wilhelm Kohler, 2014. "Restrictive Immigration Policy in Germany: Pains and Gains Foregone?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: European Economic Integration, WTO Membership, Immigration and Offshoring, chapter 12, pages 395-419, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. Brücker, Herbert & Hauptmann, Andreas & Jahn, Elke J. & Upward, Richard, 2014. "Migration and imperfect labor markets: Theory and cross-country evidence from Denmark, Germany and the UK," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 205-225.
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    21. Kiguchi, Takehiro & Mountford, Andrew, 2013. "The macroeconomics of immigration," MPRA Paper 45517, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Hatton, Timothy J, 1995. "A Model of U.K. Emigration, 1870-1913," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(3), pages 407-415, August.
    23. Litterman, Robert, 1986. "Forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregressions -- Five years of experience : Robert B. Litterman, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 4 (1986) 25-38," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 497-498.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hutter, Christian & Klinger, Sabine & Trenkler, Carsten & Weber, Enzo, 2019. "Which factors are behind Germany's labour market upswing?," IAB-Discussion Paper 201920, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    2. Fuchs, Johann & Gehrke, Britta & Hummel, Markus & Hutter, Christian & Wanger, Susanne & Weber, Enzo & Weigand, Roland & Zika, Gerd, 2016. "IAB-Prognose 2016/2017: Arbeitslosigkeit sinkt weiter," IAB-Kurzbericht 201620, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    3. Sabine Klinger & Anvar Musayev & Jean-Marc Natal & Enzo Weber, 2019. "Immigration and Wage Dynamics in Germany," IMF Working Papers 2019/301, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Stefan Bach & Peter Haan & Kristina van Deuverden & Björn Fischer & Herbert Brücker & Agnese Romiti & Enzo Weber, 2017. "Abschätzung von Effekten der Integration von Flüchtlingen: Kurzexpertise für das Bundesministerium für Arbeit und Soziales," DIW Berlin: Politikberatung kompakt, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, volume 117, number pbk117.
    5. Auer, Daniel & Götz, Lilia, 2021. "Refugee migration, labor demand, and local employment," GLO Discussion Paper Series 989, Global Labor Organization (GLO).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; Asylbewerber ; Bruttoinlandsprodukt ; Einwanderung ; Geflüchtete ; Lohn ; Arbeitslosenquote ; 1970-2014;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • C36 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation

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