Roger M. Cooke

Research output

Working papers

1. Rennert, Kevin & Prest, Brian C. & Pizer, William & Newell, Richard G. & Anthoff, David & Kingdon, Cora & Rennels, Lisa & Cooke, Roger & Raftery, Adrian E. & Ševčíková, Hana & Errickson, Frank, 2021. "The Social Cost of Carbon: Advances in Long-Term Probabilistic Projections of Population, GDP, Emissions, and Discount Rates," RFF Working Paper Series 21-28, Resources for the Future.
   • Kevin Rennert & Brian C. Prest & William A. Pizer & Richard G. Newell & David Anthoff & Cora Kingdon & Lisa Rennels & Roger Cooke & Adrian E. Raftery & Hana Sevcikova & Frank Errickson, 2021. "The Social Cost of Carbon: Advances in Long-Term Probabilistic Projections of Population, GDP, Emissions, and Discount Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 52(2 (Fall)), pages 223-305.
2. Cooke, Roger & Golub, Alexander, 2019. "Market-Based Methods for Monetizing Uncertainty Reduction: A Case Study," RFF Working Paper Series 19-15, Resources for the Future.
3. Lutter, Randall & Colson, Abigail & Cooke, Roger, 2017. "Effects of Increases in IQ in India on the Present Value of Lifetime Earnings: A Structured Expert Judgment Study," RFF Working Paper Series 17-18, Resources for the Future.
4. Cooke, Roger M. & Golub, Alexander & Wielicki, Bruce A. & Mlynczak, Martin G. & Young, David F. & Baize, Rosemary R., 2016. "Real Option Value for New Measurements of Cloud Radiative Forcing," RFF Working Paper Series dp-16-19, Resources for the Future.
5. Colson, Abigail & Cooke, Roger & Lutter, Virginia, 2016. "Full title How Does Breastfeeding Affect IQ? Applying the Classical Model of Structured Expert Judgment," RFF Working Paper Series dp-16-28, Resources for the Future.
6. Cooke, Roger M., 2014. "Deep and Shallow Uncertainty in Messaging Climate Change," RFF Working Paper Series dp-14-11, Resources for the Future.
7. Cooke, Roger M. & Ross, Heather L. & Stern, Adam, 2011. "Precursor Analysis for Offshore Oil and Gas Drilling: From Prescriptive to Risk-Informed Regulation," RFF Working Paper Series dp-10-61, Resources for the Future.
8. Cooke, Roger M., 2011. "A shapley value approach to pricing climate risks," Economics Discussion Papers 2011-17, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
9. Cooke, Roger M. & Nieboer, Daan, 2011. "Heavy-Tailed Distributions: Data, Diagnostics, and New Developments," RFF Working Paper Series dp-11-19, Resources for the Future.
10. Kousky, Carolyn & Kopp, Robert E. & Cooke, Roger, 2011. "Risk premia and the social cost of carbon: A review," Economics Discussion Papers 2011-19, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Kousky, Carolyn & Kopp, Robert E. & Cooke, Roger M., 2011. "Risk premia and the social cost of carbon: A review," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 5, pages 1-24.
11. Cooke, Roger M. & Kelly, G.N., 2010. "Climate Change Uncertainty Quantification: Lessons Learned from the Joint EU-USNRC Project on Uncertainty Analysis of Probabilistic Accident Consequence Codes," RFF Working Paper Series dp-10-29, Resources for the Future.
12. Kousky, Carolyn & Cooke, Roger, 2009. "Climate Change and Risk Management: Challenges for Insurance, Adaptation, and Loss Estimation," RFF Working Paper Series dp-09-03-rev, Resources for the Future.
13. Kousky, Carolyn & Cooke, Roger M., 2009. "The Unholy Trinity: Fat Tails, Tail Dependence, and Micro-Correlations," RFF Working Paper Series dp-09-36-rev.pdf, Resources for the Future.

Articles

1. Roger M. Cooke, 2023. "Averaging quantiles, variance shrinkage, and overconfidence," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(1), March.
2. Kevin Rennert & Frank Errickson & Brian C. Prest & Lisa Rennels & Richard G. Newell & William Pizer & Cora Kingdon & Jordan Wingenroth & Roger Cooke & Bryan Parthum & David Smith & Kevin Cromar & Dela, 2022. "Comprehensive evidence implies a higher social cost of CO2," Nature, Nature, vol. 610(7933), pages 687-692, October.
3. Cooke, Roger M. & Marti, Deniz & Mazzuchi, Thomas, 2021. "Expert forecasting with and without uncertainty quantification and weighting: What do the data say?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 378-387.
4. Roger M. Cooke & Harry Joe & Bo Chang, 2020. "Vine copula regression for observational studies," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 104(2), pages 141-167, June.
5. Roger Cooke & Alexander Golub, 2020. "Market-based methods for monetizing uncertainty reduction," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 40(1), pages 3-13, March.
6. Abigail R Colson & Itamar Megiddo & Gerardo Alvarez-Uria & Sumanth Gandra & Tim Bedford & Alec Morton & Roger M Cooke & Ramanan Laxminarayan, 2019. "Quantifying uncertainty about future antimicrobial resistance: Comparing structured expert judgment and statistical forecasting methods," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(7), pages 1-18, July.
7. Roger M Cooke & Bruce Wielicki, 2018. "Probabilistic reasoning about measurements of equilibrium climate sensitivity: combining disparate lines of evidence," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(3), pages 541-554, December.
8. Abigail R Colson & Roger M Cooke, 2018. "Expert Elicitation: Using the Classical Model to Validate Experts’ Judgments," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 12(1), pages 113-132.
9. A. M. Hanea & G. F. Nane & B. A. Wielicki & R. M. Cooke, 2018. "Bayesian networks for identifying incorrect probabilistic intuitions in a climate trend uncertainty quantification context," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(9), pages 1146-1161, September.
10. Roger Cooke & Alexander Golub & Bruce A. Wielicki & David F. Young & Martin G. Mlynczak & Rosemary R. Baize, 2017. "Using the social cost of carbon to value earth observing systems," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 330-345, April.
11. Werner, Christoph & Bedford, Tim & Cooke, Roger M. & Hanea, Anca M. & Morales-Nápoles, Oswaldo, 2017. "Expert judgement for dependence in probabilistic modelling: A systematic literature review and future research directions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 258(3), pages 801-819.
12. Colson, Abigail R. & Cooke, Roger M., 2017. "Cross validation for the classical model of structured expert judgment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 109-120.
13. Michael Oppenheimer & Christopher M. Little & Roger M. Cooke, 2016. "Expert judgement and uncertainty quantification for climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(5), pages 445-451, May.
14. Cooke Roger M. & Saatchi Sassan & Hagen Stephen, 2016. "Global correlation and uncertainty accounting," Dependence Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-6, September.
15. W P Aspinall & R M Cooke & A H Havelaar & S Hoffmann & T Hald, 2016. "Evaluation of a Performance-Based Expert Elicitation: WHO Global Attribution of Foodborne Diseases," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(3), pages 1-14, March.
16. Roger M. Cooke, 2015. "Messaging climate change uncertainty," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(1), pages 8-10, January.
17. Roger M. Cooke, 2015. "The Aggregation of Expert Judgment: Do Good Things Come to Those Who Weight?," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(1), pages 12-15, January.
18. Cooke, R.M. & Kurowicka, D. & Wilson, K., 2015. "Sampling, conditionalizing, counting, merging, searching regular vines," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 4-18.
19. T. Ganguly & K. J. Wilson & J. Quigley & R. M. Cooke & Alessandra Babuscia & Kar-Ming Cheung, 2014. "Reaction to ‘An approach to perform expert elicitation for engineering design risk analysis: methodology and experimental results’," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 177(4), pages 981-985, October.
20. Patrycja L. Gradowska & Roger M. Cooke, 2014. "Estimating expected value of information using Bayesian belief networks: a case study in fish consumption advisory," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 88-97, March.
21. Roger Cooke & Bruce A. Wielicki & David F. Young & Martin G. Mlynczak, 2014. "Value of information for climate observing systems," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 98-109, March.
22. Roger Cooke, 2013. "Uncertainty analysis comes to integrated assessment models for climate change…and conversely," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(3), pages 467-479, April.
23. Halpern, Benjamin S. & Longo, Catherine & McLeod, Karen L. & Cooke, Roger & Fischhoff, Baruch & Samhouri, Jameal F. & Scarborough, Courtney, 2013. "Elicited preferences for components of ocean health in the California Current," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 68-73.
24. R. M. Cooke, 2013. "Quantifying uncertainty on thin ice," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(4), pages 311-312, April.
25. Daniele Canzio & Maofu Liao & Nariman Naber & Edward Pate & Adam Larson & Shenping Wu & Diana B. Marina & Jennifer F. Garcia & Hiten D. Madhani & Roger Cooke & Peter Schuck & Yifan Cheng & Geeta J. Na, 2013. "A conformational switch in HP1 releases auto-inhibition to drive heterochromatin assembly," Nature, Nature, vol. 496(7445), pages 377-381, April.
26. Carolyn Kousky & Roger Cooke, 2012. "Explaining the Failure to Insure Catastrophic Risks," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 37(2), pages 206-227, April.
27. Gradowska, P.L. & Cooke, R.M., 2012. "Least squares type estimation for Cox regression model and specification error," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(7), pages 2288-2302.
28. David Cooley & Christopher Galik & Thomas Holmes & Carolyn Kousky & Roger Cooke, 2012. "Managing dependencies in forest offset projects: toward a more complete evaluation of reversal risk," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 17-24, January.
29. Kousky, Carolyn & Kopp, Robert E. & Cooke, Roger M., 2011. "Risk premia and the social cost of carbon: A review," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 5, pages 1-24.
    • Kousky, Carolyn & Kopp, Robert E. & Cooke, Roger, 2011. "Risk premia and the social cost of carbon: A review," Economics Discussion Papers 2011-19, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
30. Roger M. Cooke, 2011. "Response to Conundrums Letter," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(1), pages 5-6, January.
31. R. E. J. Neslo & R. M. Cooke, 2011. "Modeling and validating stakeholder preferences with probabilistic inversion," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(2), pages 115-130, March.
32. Hanea, A.M. & Kurowicka, D. & Cooke, R.M. & Ababei, D.A., 2010. "Mining and visualising ordinal data with non-parametric continuous BBNs," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 668-687, March.
33. Roger M. Cooke, 2010. "Response to Reviewers," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(3), pages 353-353, March.
34. Arie H Havelaar & Floor van Rosse & Catalin Bucura & Milou A Toetenel & Juanita A Haagsma & Dorota Kurowicka & J (Hans) A P Heesterbeek & Niko Speybroeck & Merel F M Langelaar & Johanna W B van der Gi, 2010. "Prioritizing Emerging Zoonoses in The Netherlands," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 5(11), pages 1-9, November.
35. Roger Cooke, 2010. "Conundrums with Uncertainty Factors," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(3), pages 330-339, March.
36. Dorota Kurowicka & Catalin Bucura & Roger Cooke & Arie Havelaar, 2010. "Probabilistic Inversion in Priority Setting of Emerging Zoonoses," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(5), pages 715-723, May.
37. Dorota Kurowicka & Maarten Nauta & Katarzyna Jozwiak & Roger Cooke, 2010. "Updating Parameters of the Chicken Processing Line Model," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(6), pages 934-944, June.
38. Ale, B.J.M. & Bellamy, L.J. & van der Boom, R. & Cooper, J. & Cooke, R.M. & Goossens, L.H.J. & Hale, A.R. & Kurowicka, D. & Morales, O. & Roelen, A.L.C. & Spouge, J., 2009. "Further development of a Causal model for Air Transport Safety (CATS): Building the mathematical heart," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(9), pages 1433-1441.
39. Lisa R. Racki & Janet G. Yang & Nariman Naber & Peretz D. Partensky & Ashley Acevedo & Thomas J. Purcell & Roger Cooke & Yifan Cheng & Geeta J. Narlikar, 2009. "The chromatin remodeller ACF acts as a dimeric motor to space nucleosomes," Nature, Nature, vol. 462(7276), pages 1016-1021, December.
40. Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Kimberly M. Thompson & M. G. Myriam Hunink & Thomas A. Mazzuchi & Daniel Lewandowski & Dorota Kurowicka & Roger M. Cooke, 2008. "Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses of a Dynamic Economic Evaluation Model for Vaccination Programs," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 28(2), pages 182-200, March.
41. Roger M. Cooke & Margaret MacDonell, 2008. "Regulating Under Uncertainty: Newsboy for Exposure Limits," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(3), pages 577-587, June.
42. Cooke, Roger M. & ElSaadany, Susie & Huang, Xinzheng, 2008. "On the performance of social network and likelihood-based expert weighting schemes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(5), pages 745-756.
43. Cooke, Roger M. & Goossens, Louis L.H.J., 2008. "TU Delft expert judgment data base," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(5), pages 657-674.
44. Cooke, R. & Cripps, A. & Irwin, A. & Kolokotroni, M., 2007. "Alternative energy technologies in buildings: Stakeholder perceptions," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(14), pages 2320-2333.
45. Kurowicka, D. & Cooke, R.M., 2007. "Sampling algorithms for generating joint uniform distributions using the vine-copula method," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 2889-2906, March.
46. Cooke, Roger M. & Nauta, Maarten & Havelaar, Arie H. & van der Fels, Ine, 2006. "Probabilistic inversion for chicken processing lines," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 91(10), pages 1364-1372.
47. Du, C. & Kurowicka, D. & Cooke, R.M., 2006. "Techniques for generic probabilistic inversion," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1164-1187, March.
48. H. J. Van der Fels‐Klerx & Roger M. Cooke & Maarten N. Nauta & Louis H. Goossens & Arie H. Havelaar, 2005. "A Structured Expert Judgment Study for a Model of Campylobacter Transmission During Broiler‐Chicken Processing," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(1), pages 109-124, February.
49. Bunea, C. & Charitos, T. & Cooke, R.M. & Becker, G., 2005. "Two-stage Bayesian models—application to ZEDB project," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 123-130.
50. Cooke, Roger M. & Bosma, Atze & Harte, Frank, 2005. "A practical model of Heineken's bottle filling line with dependent failures," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 164(2), pages 491-504, July.
51. Kristin Shrader‐Frechette & Roger Cooke, 2004. "Ethics and Choosing Appropriate Means to an End: Problems with Coal Mine and Nuclear Workplace Safety," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(1), pages 147-156, February.
52. Motomasa Tanaka & Peter Chien & Nariman Naber & Roger Cooke & Jonathan S. Weissman, 2004. "Conformational variations in an infectious protein determine prion strain differences," Nature, Nature, vol. 428(6980), pages 323-328, March.
53. Kimberly M. Thompson & R. Frank Rabouw & Roger M. Cooke, 2001. "The Risk of Groundling Fatalities from Unintentional Airplane Crashes," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 21(6), pages 1025-1038, December.
54. Sarah Rice & Abel W. Lin & Daniel Safer & Cynthia L. Hart & Nariman Naber & Bridget O. Carragher & Shane M. Cain & Elena Pechatnikova & Elizabeth M. Wilson-Kubalek & Michael Whittaker & Edward Pate & , 1999. "A structural change in the kinesin motor protein that drives motility," Nature, Nature, vol. 402(6763), pages 778-784, December.
55. Bedford, Tim & Cooke, Roger, 1999. "A new generic model for applying MAUT," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 118(3), pages 589-604, November.
56. Roger Cooke & Eric Jager, 1998. "A Probabilistic Model for the Failure Frequency of Underground Gas Pipelines," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(4), pages 511-527, August.
57. L.H.J. Goossens & R.M. Cooke & F Woudenberg & P Van Der Torn, 1998. "Expert judgement and lethal toxicity of inhaled chemicals," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 117-133, April.
58. van Noortwijk, Jan M. & Cooke, Roger M. & Kok, Matthijs, 1995. "A Bayesian failure model based on isotropic deterioration," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 270-282, April.
59. A. Dawid & M. DeGroot & J. Mortera & R. Cooke & S. French & C. Genest & M. Schervish & D. Lindley & K. McConway & R. Winkler, 1995. "Coherent combination of experts' opinions," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 4(2), pages 263-313, December.
60. Cooke, Roger M., 1993. "The total time on test statistic and age-dependent censoring," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 307-312, November.
61. Bhola, B. & Cooke, R. M. & Blaauw, H. G. & Kok, M., 1992. "Expert opinion in project management," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 24-31, February.
62. Lootsma, F. A. & Boonekamp, P. G. M. & Cooke, R. M. & Van Oostvoorn, F., 1990. "Choice of a long-term strategy for the national electricity supply via scenario analysis and multi-criteria analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 189-203, September.
63. Roger M. Cooke & Rudi Waij, 1986. "Monte Carlo Sampling for Generalized Knowledge Dependence with Application to Human Reliability," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 6(3), pages 335-343, September.
64. Roger M. Cooke, 1986. "Problems with Empirical Bayes," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 6(3), pages 269-272, September.
65. Roger M. Cooke, 1984. "Price—Anderson Revisited," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 4(3), pages 155-155, September.

Chapters

1. Deniz Marti & Thomas A. Mazzuchi & Roger M. Cooke, 2021. "Are Performance Weights Beneficial? Investigating the Random Expert Hypothesis," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Anca M. Hanea & Gabriela F. Nane & Tim Bedford & Simon French (ed.), Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis, chapter 0, pages 53-82, Springer.
2. Roger M. Cooke, 2021. "A Number of Things," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Anca M. Hanea & Gabriela F. Nane & Tim Bedford & Simon French (ed.), Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis, chapter 0, pages 199-213, Springer.
3. John Quigley & Abigail Colson & Willy Aspinall & Roger M. Cooke, 2018. "Elicitation in the Classical Model," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Luis C. Dias & Alec Morton & John Quigley (ed.), Elicitation, chapter 0, pages 15-36, Springer.
4. Roger M. Cooke, 2018. "Validation in the Classical Model," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Luis C. Dias & Alec Morton & John Quigley (ed.), Elicitation, chapter 0, pages 37-59, Springer.
5. Carolyn Kousky & Roger M. Cooke, 2012. "The Value of Information in a Risk Management Approach to Climate Change," Springer Books, in: Ramanan Laxminarayan & Molly K. Macauley (ed.), The Value of Information, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 19-43, Springer.
6. Roger M. Cooke & Carolyn Kousky & Harry Joe, 2010. "Micro Correlations and Tail Dependence," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Dorota Kurowicka & Harry Joe (ed.), Dependence Modeling Vine Copula Handbook, chapter 5, pages 89-112, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
7. Roger M. Cooke & Harry Joe & Kjersti Aas, 2010. "Vines Arise," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Dorota Kurowicka & Harry Joe (ed.), Dependence Modeling Vine Copula Handbook, chapter 3, pages 37-71, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
8. Harry Joe & Roger M. Cooke & Dorota Kurowicka, 2010. "Regular Vines: Generation Algorithm and Number of Equivalence Classes," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Dorota Kurowicka & Harry Joe (ed.), Dependence Modeling Vine Copula Handbook, chapter 10, pages 219-231, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
9. Roger M. Cooke, 2009. "Obtaining Distributions from Groups for Decisions Under Uncertainty," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Terry M. Williams & Knut Samset & Kjell J. Sunnevåg (ed.), Making Essential Choices with Scant Information, chapter 13, pages 257-276, Palgrave Macmillan.