IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v94y2009i9p1433-1441.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Further development of a Causal model for Air Transport Safety (CATS): Building the mathematical heart

Author

Listed:
  • Ale, B.J.M.
  • Bellamy, L.J.
  • van der Boom, R.
  • Cooper, J.
  • Cooke, R.M.
  • Goossens, L.H.J.
  • Hale, A.R.
  • Kurowicka, D.
  • Morales, O.
  • Roelen, A.L.C.
  • Spouge, J.

Abstract

The development of the Netherlands international airport Schiphol has been the subject of fierce political debate for several decades. One of the considerations has been the safety of the population living around the airport, the density of which has been and still is growing. In the debate about the acceptability of the risks associated with the air traffic above, The Netherlands extensive use has been made of statistical models relating the movement of airplanes to the risks on the ground. Although these models are adequate for the debate and for physical planning around the airport, the need has arisen to gain a more thorough understanding of the accident genesis in air traffic, with the ultimate aim of improving the safety situation in air traffic in general and around Schiphol in particular. To this aim, a research effort has started to develop causal models for air traffic risks in the expectation that these will ultimately give the insight needed. The concept was described in an earlier paper. In this paper, the backbone of the model and the way event sequence diagrams, fault-trees and Bayesian belief nets are linked to form a homogeneous mathematical model suitable as a tool to analyse causal chains and quantify risks is described.

Suggested Citation

  • Ale, B.J.M. & Bellamy, L.J. & van der Boom, R. & Cooper, J. & Cooke, R.M. & Goossens, L.H.J. & Hale, A.R. & Kurowicka, D. & Morales, O. & Roelen, A.L.C. & Spouge, J., 2009. "Further development of a Causal model for Air Transport Safety (CATS): Building the mathematical heart," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(9), pages 1433-1441.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:94:y:2009:i:9:p:1433-1441
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2009.02.024
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832009000374
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2009.02.024?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Morales, O. & Kurowicka, D. & Roelen, A., 2008. "Eliciting conditional and unconditional rank correlations from conditional probabilities," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(5), pages 699-710.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Roger M Cooke & Bruce Wielicki, 2018. "Probabilistic reasoning about measurements of equilibrium climate sensitivity: combining disparate lines of evidence," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(3), pages 541-554, December.
    2. Montewka, Jakub & Goerlandt, Floris & Kujala, Pentti, 2014. "On a systematic perspective on risk for formal safety assessment (FSA)," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 77-85.
    3. Luo, Pengcheng & Hu, Yang, 2013. "System risk evolution analysis and risk critical event identification based on event sequence diagram," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 36-44.
    4. Zhang, Xiaoge & Mahadevan, Sankaran, 2021. "Bayesian network modeling of accident investigation reports for aviation safety assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    5. Bauranov, Aleksandar & Rakas, Jasenka, 2024. "Bayesian network model of aviation safety: Impact of new communication technologies on mid-air collisions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    6. Pandya, Dhruv & Podofillini, Luca & Emert, Frank & Lomax, Antony J. & Dang, Vinh N. & Sansavini, Giovanni, 2020. "Quantification of a human reliability analysis method for radiotherapy applications based on expert judgment aggregation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    7. L. Robin Keller & Kelly M. Kophazi, 2012. "From the Editors ---Copulas, Group Preferences, Multilevel Defenders, Sharing Rewards, and Communicating Analytics," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 9(3), pages 213-218, September.
    8. Pasman, H.J. & Knegtering, B. & Rogers, W.J., 2013. "A holistic approach to control process safety risks: Possible ways forward," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 21-29.
    9. Zhang, Yimin & Shortle, John & Sherry, Lance, 2015. "Methodology for collision risk assessment of an airspace flow corridor concept," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 444-455.
    10. Rogerson, Ellen C. & Lambert, James H., 2012. "Prioritizing risks via several expert perspectives with application to runway safety," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 22-34.
    11. Hossein Hassani & Xu Huang & Mansi Ghodsi, 2018. "Big Data and Causality," Annals of Data Science, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 133-156, June.
    12. Rios Insua, D. & Alfaro, C. & Gomez, J. & Hernandez-Coronado, P. & Bernal, F., 2018. "A framework for risk management decisions in aviation safety at state level," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 74-82.
    13. Mkrtchyan, L. & Podofillini, L. & Dang, V.N., 2015. "Bayesian belief networks for human reliability analysis: A review of applications and gaps," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 1-16.
    14. Dorota Kurowicka, 2012. "Conditionalization of Copula-Based Models," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 9(3), pages 219-230, September.
    15. Miriam Andrejiova & Anna Grincova & Daniela Marasova & Peter Koščák, 2021. "Civil Aviation Occurrences in Slovakia and Their Evaluation Using Statistical Methods," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-17, May.
    16. Stroeve, Sybert H. & Som, Pradip & van Doorn, Bas A. & (Bert) Bakker, G.J., 2016. "Strengthening air traffic safety management by moving from outcome-based towards risk-based evaluation of runway incursions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 93-108.
    17. Zhou, Jianfeng & Reniers, Genserik & Khakzad, Nima, 2016. "Application of event sequence diagram to evaluate emergency response actions during fire-induced domino effects," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 202-209.
    18. Bandeira, Michelle Carvalho Galvão Silva Pinto & Correia, Anderson Ribeiro & Martins, Marcelo Ramos, 2018. "General model analysis of aeronautical accidents involving human and organizational factors," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 137-146.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Morales-Nápoles, Oswaldo & Steenbergen, Raphaël D.J.M., 2014. "Analysis of axle and vehicle load properties through Bayesian Networks based on Weigh-in-Motion data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 153-164.
    2. Hanea, D.M. & Jagtman, H.M. & Ale, B.J.M., 2012. "Analysis of the Schiphol Cell Complex fire using a Bayesian belief net based model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 115-124.
    3. Patrycja L. Gradowska & Roger M. Cooke, 2014. "Estimating expected value of information using Bayesian belief networks: a case study in fish consumption advisory," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 88-97, March.
    4. Werner, Christoph & Bedford, Tim & Cooke, Roger M. & Hanea, Anca M. & Morales-Nápoles, Oswaldo, 2017. "Expert judgement for dependence in probabilistic modelling: A systematic literature review and future research directions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 258(3), pages 801-819.
    5. Hanea, Anca & Morales Napoles, Oswaldo & Ababei, Dan, 2015. "Non-parametric Bayesian networks: Improving theory and reviewing applications," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 265-284.
    6. Wang, Fan & Li, Heng & Dong, Chao & Ding, Lieyun, 2019. "Knowledge representation using non-parametric Bayesian networks for tunneling risk analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    7. Nogal, Maria & Morales Nápoles, Oswaldo & O’Connor, Alan, 2019. "Structured expert judgement to understand the intrinsic vulnerability of traffic networks," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 136-152.
    8. Lin, P.H. & Hale, A.R. & van Gulijk, C., 2013. "A paired comparison approach to improve the quantification of management influences in air transportation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 52-60.
    9. Tim Bedford & Alireza Daneshkhah & Kevin J. Wilson, 2016. "Approximate Uncertainty Modeling in Risk Analysis with Vine Copulas," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(4), pages 792-815, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Risk; Causal model; Aviation;
    All these keywords.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:94:y:2009:i:9:p:1433-1441. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.