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A Structured Expert Judgment Study for a Model of Campylobacter Transmission During Broiler‐Chicken Processing

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  • H. J. Van der Fels‐Klerx
  • Roger M. Cooke
  • Maarten N. Nauta
  • Louis H. Goossens
  • Arie H. Havelaar

Abstract

A structured expert judgment study was organized to obtain input data for a microbial risk‐assessment model describing the transmission of campylobacter during broiler‐chicken processing in the Netherlands. More specially, the expert study was aimed at quantifying the uncertainty on input parameters of this model and focused on the contamination of broiler‐chicken carcasses with campylobacter during processing. Following the protocol for structured expert judgment studies, expert assessments were elicited individually through subjective probability distribution functions. The classical model was used to aggregate the individual experts' distributions in order to obtain a single combined distribution per variable. Three different weighting schemes were applied, including equal weighting and performance‐based weighting with and without optimalization of the combined distributions. The individual experts' weights were based on their performance on the seed variables. Results of the various weighting schemes are presented in terms of performance, robustness, and combined distributions of the seed variables and some of the query variables. All three weighting schemes had adequate performance, with the optimized combined distributions significantly outperforming both the equal weight and the nonoptimized combined distributions. Hence, this weighting scheme, having adequate robustness, was chosen for further processing of the results.

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  • H. J. Van der Fels‐Klerx & Roger M. Cooke & Maarten N. Nauta & Louis H. Goossens & Arie H. Havelaar, 2005. "A Structured Expert Judgment Study for a Model of Campylobacter Transmission During Broiler‐Chicken Processing," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(1), pages 109-124, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:25:y:2005:i:1:p:109-124
    DOI: 10.1111/j.0272-4332.2005.00571.x
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    1. L.H.J. Goossens & R.M. Cooke & F Woudenberg & P Van Der Torn, 1998. "Expert judgement and lethal toxicity of inhaled chemicals," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 117-133, April.
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    3. Maarten Nauta & Ine Van Der Fels‐Klerx & Arie Havelaar, 2005. "A Poultry‐Processing Model for Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(1), pages 85-98, February.
    4. Ine H. J. Van Der Fels‐Klerx & Louis H. J. Goossens & Helmut W. Saatkamp & Suzan H. S. Horst, 2002. "Elicitation of Quantitative Data from a Heterogeneous Expert Panel: Formal Process and Application in Animal Health," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 22(1), pages 67-81, February.
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    1. World Health Organization, Foodborne Epidemiology Reference Group, Source Attribution Task Force, 2016. "Research Synthesis Methods in an Age of Globalized Risks: Lessons from the Global Burden of Foodborne Disease Expert Elicitation," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(2), pages 191-202, February.
    2. Christopher W. Karvetski & David R. Mandel & Daniel Irwin, 2020. "Improving Probability Judgment in Intelligence Analysis: From Structured Analysis to Statistical Aggregation," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(5), pages 1040-1057, May.
    3. Mitchell J. Small, 2008. "Methods for Assessing Uncertainty in Fundamental Assumptions and Associated Models for Cancer Risk Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(5), pages 1289-1308, October.
    4. Maarten J. Nauta & Wilma F. Jacobs‐Reitsma & Arie H. Havelaar, 2007. "A Risk Assessment Model for Campylobacter in Broiler Meat," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(4), pages 845-861, August.
    5. Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens & Mark A. Pallansch & Konstantin M. Chumakov & Neal A. Halsey & Tapani Hovi & Philip D. Minor & John F. Modlin & Peter A. Patriarca & Roland W. Sutter & Peter F. Wright & S, 2013. "Review and Assessment of Poliovirus Immunity and Transmission: Synthesis of Knowledge Gaps and Identification of Research Needs," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(4), pages 606-646, April.
    6. Ides Boone & Yves Van der Stede & Kaatje Bollaerts & David Vose & Dominiek Maes & Jeroen Dewulf & Winy Messens & Georges Daube & Marc Aerts & Koen Mintiens, 2009. "NUSAP Method for Evaluating the Data Quality in a Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Model for Salmonella in the Pork Production Chain," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(4), pages 502-517, April.
    7. Dorota Kurowicka & Maarten Nauta & Katarzyna Jozwiak & Roger Cooke, 2010. "Updating Parameters of the Chicken Processing Line Model," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(6), pages 934-944, June.
    8. Karin Hoelzer & Haley F. Oliver & Larry R. Kohl & Jill Hollingsworth & Martin T. Wells & Martin Wiedmann, 2012. "Structured Expert Elicitation About Listeria monocytogenes Cross‐Contamination in the Environment of Retail Deli Operations in the United States," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(7), pages 1139-1156, July.

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