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Updating Parameters of the Chicken Processing Line Model

Author

Listed:
  • Dorota Kurowicka
  • Maarten Nauta
  • Katarzyna Jozwiak
  • Roger Cooke

Abstract

A mathematical model of chicken processing that quantitatively describes the transmission of Campylobacter on chicken carcasses from slaughter to chicken meat product has been developed in Nauta et al. (2005). This model was quantified with expert judgment. Recent availability of data allows updating parameters of the model to better describe processes observed in slaughterhouses. We propose Bayesian updating as a suitable technique to update expert judgment with microbiological data. Berrang and Dickens's data are used to demonstrate performance of this method in updating parameters of the chicken processing line model.

Suggested Citation

  • Dorota Kurowicka & Maarten Nauta & Katarzyna Jozwiak & Roger Cooke, 2010. "Updating Parameters of the Chicken Processing Line Model," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(6), pages 934-944, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:30:y:2010:i:6:p:934-944
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2010.01379.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Maarten J. Nauta & Wilma F. Jacobs‐Reitsma & Arie H. Havelaar, 2007. "A Risk Assessment Model for Campylobacter in Broiler Meat," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(4), pages 845-861, August.
    2. Maarten Nauta & Ine Van Der Fels‐Klerx & Arie Havelaar, 2005. "A Poultry‐Processing Model for Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(1), pages 85-98, February.
    3. Cooke, Roger M. & Nauta, Maarten & Havelaar, Arie H. & van der Fels, Ine, 2006. "Probabilistic inversion for chicken processing lines," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 91(10), pages 1364-1372.
    4. Arie H. Havelaar & Marie‐Josee J. Mangen & Aline A. De Koeijer & Marc‐Jeroen Bogaardt & Eric G. Evers & Wilma F. Jacobs‐Reitsma & Wilfrid Van Pelt & Jaap A. Wagenaar & G. Ardine De Wit & Henk Van Der , 2007. "Effectiveness and Efficiency of Controlling Campylobacter on Broiler Chicken Meat," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(4), pages 831-844, August.
    5. Du, C. & Kurowicka, D. & Cooke, R.M., 2006. "Techniques for generic probabilistic inversion," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1164-1187, March.
    6. H. J. Van der Fels‐Klerx & Roger M. Cooke & Maarten N. Nauta & Louis H. Goossens & Arie H. Havelaar, 2005. "A Structured Expert Judgment Study for a Model of Campylobacter Transmission During Broiler‐Chicken Processing," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(1), pages 109-124, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chen Wang & Vicki M. Bier, 2013. "Expert Elicitation of Adversary Preferences Using Ordinal Judgments," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 61(2), pages 372-385, April.

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