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A Probabilistic Model for the Failure Frequency of Underground Gas Pipelines

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  • Roger Cooke
  • Eric Jager

Abstract

A model is constructed for the failure frequency of underground pipelines per kilometer year, as a function of pipe and environmental characteristics. The parameters in the model were quantified, with uncertainty, using historical data and structured expert judgment. Fifteen experts from institutes in The Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Italy, France, Germany, Belgium, Denmark, and Canada participated in the study.

Suggested Citation

  • Roger Cooke & Eric Jager, 1998. "A Probabilistic Model for the Failure Frequency of Underground Gas Pipelines," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(4), pages 511-527, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:18:y:1998:i:4:p:511-527
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1998.tb00365.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Lin, Shi-Woei & Bier, Vicki M., 2008. "A study of expert overconfidence," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(5), pages 711-721.
    2. Hathout, Michel & Vuillet, Marc & Carvajal, Claudio & Peyras, Laurent & Diab, Youssef, 2019. "Expert judgments calibration and combination for assessment of river levee failure probability," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 377-392.
    3. Forys, Monika B. & Kurowicka, Dorota & Peppelman, Bas, 2013. "A probabilistic model for a gas explosion due to leakages in the grey cast iron gas mains," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 270-279.

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