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Expert judgement and uncertainty quantification for climate change

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Oppenheimer

    (Princeton University)

  • Christopher M. Little

    (Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc.)

  • Roger M. Cooke

    (Resources for the Future
    Strathclyde Business School, University of Strathclyde)

Abstract

Expert judgement is often used to assess uncertainties in model-based climate change projections. This Perspective describes a statistical approach to formalizing the role of expert judgement, using Antarctic ice loss as an illustrative example.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Oppenheimer & Christopher M. Little & Roger M. Cooke, 2016. "Expert judgement and uncertainty quantification for climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(5), pages 445-451, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:6:y:2016:i:5:d:10.1038_nclimate2959
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2959
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Peter Harrison Howard & Derek Sylvan, 2020. "Wisdom of the experts: Using survey responses to address positive and normative uncertainties in climate-economic models," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 213-232, September.
    2. Pindyck, Robert S., 2019. "The social cost of carbon revisited," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 140-160.
    3. Alexander M. R. Bakker & Domitille Louchard & Klaus Keller, 2017. "Sources and implications of deep uncertainties surrounding sea-level projections," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 140(3), pages 339-347, February.
    4. De Bruin, Kelly & Kiran Krishnamurthy, Chandra, 2021. "Optimal Climate Policy with Fat-tailed Uncertainty: What the Models Can Tell Us," Papers WP697, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    5. Peter H. Howard & Thomas Sterner, 2017. "Few and Not So Far Between: A Meta-analysis of Climate Damage Estimates," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 68(1), pages 197-225, September.
    6. Jasper Verschuur & Dewi Bars & Caroline A. Katsman & Sierd de Vries & Roshanka Ranasinghe & Sybren S. Drijfhout & Stefan G. J. Aarninkhof, 2020. "Implications of ambiguity in Antarctic ice sheet dynamics for future coastal erosion estimates: a probabilistic assessment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 859-876, September.
    7. Hylke Vries & Roderik S. W. Wal, 2016. "Response to commentary by J. L. Bamber, W. P. Aspinall and R. M. Cooke (2016)," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 137(3), pages 329-332, August.
    8. Tony E. Wong & Alexander M. R. Bakker & Klaus Keller, 2017. "Impacts of Antarctic fast dynamics on sea-level projections and coastal flood defense," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 144(2), pages 347-364, September.
    9. Casey Helgeson & Richard Bradley & Brian Hill, 2018. "Combining probability with qualitative degree-of-certainty metrics in assessment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 149(3), pages 517-525, August.
    10. Fathy, Mohammad & Kazemzadeh Haghighi, Foojan & Ahmadi, Mohammad, 2024. "Uncertainty quantification of reservoir performance using machine learning algorithms and structured expert judgment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    11. Stephan Harrison & Tim Mighall & David A. Stainforth & Philip Allen & Mark Macklin & Edward Anderson & Jasper Knight & Dmitri Mauquoy & David Passmore & Brice Rea & Matteo Spagnolo & Sarah Shannon, 2019. "Uncertainty in geomorphological responses to climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 156(1), pages 69-86, September.
    12. Durante Fabrizio & Puccetti Giovanni & Scherer Matthias & Vanduffel Steven, 2017. "The Vine Philosopher: An interview with Roger Cooke," Dependence Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 256-267, December.
    13. A. Procter & T. McDaniels & R. Vignola, 2017. "Using expert judgments to inform economic evaluation of ecosystem-based adaptation decisions: watershed management for enhancing water supply for Tegucigalpa, Honduras," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 37(4), pages 410-422, December.
    14. David M Costello & Konrad J Kulacki & Mary E McCarthy & Scott D Tiegs & Bradley J Cardinale, 2018. "Ranking stressor impacts on periphyton structure and function with mesocosm experiments and environmental-change forecasts," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(9), pages 1-18, September.
    15. Charlie Wilson & Céline Guivarch & Elmar Kriegler & Bas Ruijven & Detlef P. Vuuren & Volker Krey & Valeria Jana Schwanitz & Erica L. Thompson, 2021. "Evaluating process-based integrated assessment models of climate change mitigation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 1-22, May.
    16. Jérémy Rohmer & Gonéri Cozannet & Jean-Charles Manceau, 2019. "Addressing ambiguity in probabilistic assessments of future coastal flooding using possibility distributions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 155(1), pages 95-109, July.
    17. Timothy McDaniels, 2021. "Four Decades of Transformation in Decision Analytic Practice for Societal Risk Management," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(3), pages 491-502, March.
    18. Zhen Dai & Elizabeth T. Burns & Peter J. Irvine & Dustin H. Tingley & Jianhua Xu & David W. Keith, 2021. "Elicitation of US and Chinese expert judgments show consistent views on solar geoengineering," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 8(1), pages 1-9, December.
    19. Pablo Borges de Amorim & Pedro B. Chaffe, 2019. "Towards a comprehensive characterization of evidence in synthesis assessments: the climate change impacts on the Brazilian water resources," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 155(1), pages 37-57, July.
    20. Marius Zumwald & Benedikt Knüsel & Christoph Baumberger & Gertrude Hirsch Hadorn & David N. Bresch & Reto Knutti, 2020. "Understanding and assessing uncertainty of observational climate datasets for model evaluation using ensembles," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 11(5), September.
    21. Ren, Xin & Nane, Gabriela F. & Terwel, Karel C. & van Gelder, Pieter H.A.J.M., 2024. "Measuring the impacts of human and organizational factors on human errors in the Dutch construction industry using structured expert judgement," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    22. Julie E. Shortridge & Benjamin F. Zaitchik, 2018. "Characterizing climate change risks by linking robust decision frameworks and uncertain probabilistic projections," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(3), pages 525-539, December.
    23. Brian H. MacGillivray, 2019. "Null Hypothesis Testing ≠ Scientific Inference: A Critique of the Shaky Premise at the Heart of the Science and Values Debate, and a Defense of Value‐Neutral Risk Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(7), pages 1520-1532, July.
    24. Robert William Fuller & Tony E Wong & Klaus Keller, 2017. "Probabilistic inversion of expert assessments to inform projections about Antarctic ice sheet responses," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(12), pages 1-13, December.
    25. Roger M. Cooke, 2023. "Averaging quantiles, variance shrinkage, and overconfidence," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(1), March.

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