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Paulo Soares Esteves

Personal Details

First Name:Paulo
Middle Name:Soares
Last Name:Esteves
Suffix:
RePEc Short-ID:pes185
[This author has chosen not to make the email address public]

Affiliation

Banco de Portugal

Lisboa, Portugal
http://www.bportugal.pt/
RePEc:edi:bdpgvpt (more details at EDIRC)

Research output

as
Jump to: Working papers Articles

Working papers

  1. Paulo Soares Esteves & Miguel Portela & António Rua, 2018. "Does domestic demand matter for firms’ exports?," NIPE Working Papers 18/2018, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  2. Paulo Soares Esteves & Elvira Prades, 2017. "On domestic demand and export performance in the euro area countries: Does export concentration matter?," Working Papers 1719, Banco de España.
  3. Rua, António & Soares Esteves, Paulo & Staehr, Karsten & Bobeica, Elena, 2015. "Exports and domestic demand pressure: a dynamic panel data model for the euro area countries," Working Paper Series 1777, European Central Bank.
  4. Rua, António & Soares Esteves, Paulo, 2013. "Is there a role for domestic demand pressure on export performance?," Working Paper Series 1594, European Central Bank.
  5. Paulo Esteves, 2011. "Direct vs bottom-up approach when forecasting GDP: reconciling literature results with institutional practice," Working Papers w201129, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  6. Paulo Esteves & Paulo M.M. Rodrigues, 2010. "Calendar Effects in Daily ATM Withdrawals," Working Papers w201012, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  7. Paulo Esteves, 2009. "Are ATM/POS Data Relevant When Nowcasting Private Consumption?," Working Papers w200925, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  8. Paulo Esteves & Maximiano Pinheiro, 2008. "On the uncertainty and risks of macroeconomic forecasts: Combining judgements with sample and model information," Working Papers w200821, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  9. Fátima Cardoso & Paulo Esteves, 2008. "What is behind the recent evolution of Portuguese terms of trade?," Working Papers w200805, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  10. Fátima Cardoso & Paulo Esteves, 2008. "The effects of low-cost countries on Portuguese manufacturing import prices," Working Papers w200804, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  11. Paulo Esteves & Carolina Reis, 2006. "Measuring export competitiveness: revisiting the effective exchange rate weights for the euro area countries," Working Papers w200611, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  12. Paulo Esteves & Carlos Coimbra, 2004. "Oil prices assumptions in macroeconomic forecasts: should we follow futures market expectations?," Working Papers w200404, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  13. Fernando Martins & Paulo Esteves & José A. F. Machado, 2002. "Modelling Taylor Rule Uncertainty," Working Papers w200203, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
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Articles

  1. Paulo Soares Esteves & Miguel Portela & António Rua, 2022. "Does Domestic Demand Matter for Firms’ Exports?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 311-332, April.
  2. Esteves, Paulo Soares & Prades, Elvira, 2018. "Does export concentration matter in economic adjustment programs? Evidence from the euro-area," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 225-241.
  3. Elena Bobeica & Paulo Soares Esteves & António Rua & Karsten Staehr, 2016. "Exports and domestic demand pressure: a dynamic panel data model for the euro area countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 152(1), pages 107-125, February.
  4. Paulo Esteves & António Rua, 2015. "Is there a role for domestic demand pressure on export performance?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 1173-1189, December.
  5. Esteves, Paulo Soares, 2013. "Direct vs bottom–up approach when forecasting GDP: Reconciling literature results with institutional practice," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 416-420.
  6. Maximiano Pinheiro & Paulo Esteves, 2012. "On the uncertainty and risks of macroeconomic forecasts: combining judgements with sample and model information," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 639-665, June.
  7. Paulo Rodrigues & Paulo Esteves, 2010. "Calendar effects in daily ATM withdrawals," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(4), pages 2587-2597.
  8. Martins, Fernando & Machado, Jose A. F. & Esteves, Paulo Soares, 2004. "Modelling Taylor rule uncertainty: an application to the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 561-572, May.
  9. Carlos Coimbra & Paulo Soares Esteves, 2004. "Oil price assumptions in macroeconomic forecasts: should we follow futures market expectations?," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 28(2), pages 87-106, June.

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Citations

Many of the citations below have been collected in an experimental project, CitEc, where a more detailed citation analysis can be found. These are citations from works listed in RePEc that could be analyzed mechanically. So far, only a minority of all works could be analyzed. See under "Corrections" how you can help improve the citation analysis.

Working papers

  1. Paulo Soares Esteves & Miguel Portela & António Rua, 2018. "Does domestic demand matter for firms’ exports?," NIPE Working Papers 18/2018, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.

    Cited by:

    1. João Vasco Coelho, 2022. "Non‐linear internationalization processes in Portugal: Evidence across retail, construction and software development industries," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(3), pages 539-559, June.
    2. Karsten Staehr, 2020. "Export performance and capacity pressures in Central and Eastern Europe," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2020-4, Bank of Estonia, revised 13 Aug 2020.
    3. Tracy Wilcox & Michelle Greenwood & Alison Pullen & Anne O’Leary Kelly & Deborah Jones, 2021. "Interfaces of domestic violence and organization: Gendered violence and inequality," Gender, Work and Organization, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 701-721, March.

  2. Paulo Soares Esteves & Elvira Prades, 2017. "On domestic demand and export performance in the euro area countries: Does export concentration matter?," Working Papers 1719, Banco de España.

    Cited by:

    1. Ansgar Belke & Jan Wagemester, 2017. "Export Hysteresis, Capacity Constraints and Uncertainty: A Smooth-Transition Analysis for Euro Area Member Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 6634, CESifo.
    2. Nazlı Karamollaoğlu & Cihan Yalçin, 2020. "Exports, real exchange rates and dollarization: empirical evidence from Turkish manufacturing firms," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(5), pages 2527-2557, November.
    3. Kristian Orsini & Mario Pletikosa, 2019. "Croatia's Tourism Industry – Part 2: Curse or Blessing?," European Economy - Economic Briefs 047, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    4. Saša Jakšić & Nataša Erjavec & Boris Cota, 2019. "The role of foreign direct investment and labor productivity in explaining croatian regional export dynamics," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 27(3), pages 835-849, September.

  3. Rua, António & Soares Esteves, Paulo & Staehr, Karsten & Bobeica, Elena, 2015. "Exports and domestic demand pressure: a dynamic panel data model for the euro area countries," Working Paper Series 1777, European Central Bank.

    Cited by:

    1. João Vasco Coelho, 2022. "Non‐linear internationalization processes in Portugal: Evidence across retail, construction and software development industries," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(3), pages 539-559, June.
    2. Karsten Staehr, 2020. "Export performance and capacity pressures in Central and Eastern Europe," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2020-4, Bank of Estonia, revised 13 Aug 2020.
    3. Elena Bobeica & Olegs Tkacevs & Styliani Christodoulopoulou, 2016. "The role of price and cost competitiveness for intra- and extra-euro area trade of euro area countries," Working Papers 2016/04, Latvijas Banka.
    4. Matteo Bugamelli & Silvia Fabiani & Stefano Federico & Alberto Felettigh & Claire Giordano & Andrea Linarello, 2018. "Back on Track? A micro-macro Narrative of Italian Exports," Working Papers 1, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
    5. Esteves, Paulo Soares & Prades, Elvira, 2018. "Does export concentration matter in economic adjustment programs? Evidence from the euro-area," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 225-241.
    6. Juan Laborda & Vicente Salas & Cristina Suárez, 2020. "Manufacturing firms’ export activity: Business and financial cycles overlaps!," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 162, pages 1-14.
    7. Niels Gilbert & Sebastiaan Pool, 2020. "Sectoral allocation and macroeconomic imbalances in EMU," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 156(4), pages 945-984, November.
    8. Paulo Soares Esteves & Miguel Portela & António Rua, 2018. "Does domestic demand matter for firms’ exports?," NIPE Working Papers 18/2018, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    9. Nazlı Karamollaoğlu & Cihan Yalçin, 2020. "Exports, real exchange rates and dollarization: empirical evidence from Turkish manufacturing firms," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(5), pages 2527-2557, November.
    10. Beissinger, Thomas & Hellier, Joël & Marczak, Martyna, 2020. "Divergence in labour force growth: Should wages and prices grow faster in Germany?," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 09-2020, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    11. Duncan van Limbergen & Robert Vermeulen, 2020. "The importance of value chains for euro area trade: a time series perspective," Working Papers 672, DNB.
    12. Soares Esteves, Paulo & Prades, Elvira, 2016. "On domestic demand and export performance in the euro area countries: does export concentration matter?," Working Paper Series 1909, European Central Bank.
    13. Juan Laborda & Sonia Ruano & Ignacio Zamanillo, 2023. "Multi-Country and Multi-Horizon GDP Forecasting Using Temporal Fusion Transformers," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-26, June.
    14. Saša Jakšić & Nataša Erjavec & Boris Cota, 2019. "The role of foreign direct investment and labor productivity in explaining croatian regional export dynamics," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 27(3), pages 835-849, September.
    15. Habanabakize Thomas & Muzindutsi Paul-Francois, 2018. "Analysis of the Keynesian Theory of Employment and Sectoral Job Creation: The Case of the South African Manufacturing Sector," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 18(1), pages 123-143, June.
    16. Serhiy Moroz & Khabibullo Pirmatov & Elena Horska & Ludmila Nagyova & Zuzana Polakova, 2017. "The Effect of Selected Economic Indicators on Export of Goods of Regions of Ukraine," Montenegrin Journal of Economics, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research (ELIT), vol. 13(2), pages 141-150.
    17. Nazlı Karamollaoğlu & Cihan Yalçın, 2017. "Exports of manufacturing firms, exchange rates, and foreign currency exposure: firm level evidence from Turkey," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Uses of central balance sheet data offices' information, volume 45, Bank for International Settlements.

  4. Rua, António & Soares Esteves, Paulo, 2013. "Is there a role for domestic demand pressure on export performance?," Working Paper Series 1594, European Central Bank.

    Cited by:

    1. Jean Pisani-Ferry & André Sapir & Guntram B. Wolff, . "EU-IMF assistance to euro area countries- an early assessment," Blueprints, Bruegel, number 779, June.
    2. Christoph Fischer & Oliver Hossfeld & Karin Radeck, 2018. "On the Suitability of Alternative Competitiveness Indicators for Explaining Real Exports of Advanced Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 119-139, February.
    3. Blaise Gnimassoun, 2014. "The importance of the exchange rate regime in limiting current account imbalances in sub-Saharan African countries," EconomiX Working Papers 2014-22, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    4. Belke, Ansgar & Oeking, Anne & Setzer, Ralph, 2014. "Exports and Capacity Constraints: A smooth transition regression model for six euro-area countries," CEPS Papers 9228, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    5. José Bardaji & Jean‐Charles Bricongne & Benoît Campagne & Guillaume Gaulier, 2019. "Domestic and export performances of French firms," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(3), pages 785-817, March.
    6. João Vasco Coelho, 2022. "Non‐linear internationalization processes in Portugal: Evidence across retail, construction and software development industries," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(3), pages 539-559, June.
    7. Rua, António & Soares Esteves, Paulo & Staehr, Karsten & Bobeica, Elena, 2015. "Exports and domestic demand pressure: a dynamic panel data model for the euro area countries," Working Paper Series 1777, European Central Bank.
    8. Ruling Hong & Mengxun Liu & Haoming Yang & Qianqian Zhang, 2023. "What Drives China’s Exports: Evidence from a Domestic Consumption Expansion Policy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-15, February.
    9. Karsten Staehr, 2020. "Export performance and capacity pressures in Central and Eastern Europe," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2020-4, Bank of Estonia, revised 13 Aug 2020.
    10. Srhoj, Stjepan & Walde, Janette, 2020. "Getting ready for EU Single Market: The effect of export-oriented grant schemes on firm performance," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 279-293.
    11. Blanchard, Olivier & Portugal, Pedro, 2017. "Boom, Slump, Sudden Stops, Recovery, and Policy Options: Portugal and the Euro," IZA Policy Papers 131, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Ansgar Belke & Jan Wagemester, 2017. "Export Hysteresis, Capacity Constraints and Uncertainty: A Smooth-Transition Analysis for Euro Area Member Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 6634, CESifo.
    13. Elena Bobeica & Olegs Tkacevs & Styliani Christodoulopoulou, 2016. "The role of price and cost competitiveness for intra- and extra-euro area trade of euro area countries," Working Papers 2016/04, Latvijas Banka.
    14. Matteo Bugamelli & Silvia Fabiani & Stefano Federico & Alberto Felettigh & Claire Giordano & Andrea Linarello, 2018. "Back on Track? A micro-macro Narrative of Italian Exports," Working Papers 1, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
    15. Jiang, Xiandeng & Shi, Yanlin, 2020. "Does US partisan conflict affect US–China bilateral trade?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 1117-1131.
    16. Pami Dua & Ritu Suri, 2023. "India’s Bilateral Export Growth and Exchange Rate Volatility: A Panel GMM Approach," Springer Books, in: Pami Dua (ed.), Macroeconometric Methods, chapter 0, pages 123-148, Springer.
    17. Ayhab F. Saad, 2017. "Trade and technology adoption," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1), pages 1-24, January.
    18. Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros & Alcidi Cinzia & Leonor Coutinho & Alessandro Giovannini, 2014. "Exit State-of-play in Implementing Macroeconomic Adjustment Programmes in the Euro Area," ROME Working Papers 201405, ROME Network.
    19. Esteves, Paulo Soares & Prades, Elvira, 2018. "Does export concentration matter in economic adjustment programs? Evidence from the euro-area," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 225-241.
    20. Juan Laborda & Vicente Salas & Cristina Suárez, 2020. "Manufacturing firms’ export activity: Business and financial cycles overlaps!," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 162, pages 1-14.
    21. Belke, Ansgar & Oeking, Anne & Setzer, Ralph, 2015. "Exports and Capacity Constraints: Evidence for Several Euro Area Countries," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113228, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    22. Paulo Soares Esteves & Miguel Portela & António Rua, 2018. "Does domestic demand matter for firms’ exports?," NIPE Working Papers 18/2018, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    23. Wang, Hua & Liao, Lingtao & Wu, Ji (George), 2023. "Robot adoption and firm's capacity utilization: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    24. Gkypali, Areti & Love, James H. & Roper, Stephen, 2021. "Export status and SME productivity: Learning-to-export versus learning-by-exporting," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 486-498.
    25. Željko Bogdan Boris Cota Nataša Erjavec, 2017. "Current Account Balance and Export Performances: Evidence Based on New EU Countries," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, vol. 20(2), pages 33-48, November.
    26. Alexander F. McQuoid & JaeBin Ahn, 2015. "Capacity Constrained Exporters: Identifying Increasing Marginal Cost," Departmental Working Papers 49, United States Naval Academy Department of Economics.
    27. Duncan van Limbergen & Robert Vermeulen, 2020. "The importance of value chains for euro area trade: a time series perspective," Working Papers 672, DNB.
    28. Soares Esteves, Paulo & Prades, Elvira, 2016. "On domestic demand and export performance in the euro area countries: does export concentration matter?," Working Paper Series 1909, European Central Bank.
    29. Bugamelli, Matteo & Gaiotti, Eugenio & Viviano, Eliana, 2015. "Domestic and foreign sales: Complements or substitutes?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 46-51.
    30. Roseline Misati & Kethi Ngoka, 2021. "Constraints on the performance and competitiveness of Tanzania's manufacturing exports," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2021-35, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    31. Belke, Ansgar & Oeking, Anne & Setzer, Ralph, 2015. "Domestic demand, capacity constraints and exporting dynamics: Empirical evidence for vulnerable euro area countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 315-325.
    32. Juan Laborda & Sonia Ruano & Ignacio Zamanillo, 2023. "Multi-Country and Multi-Horizon GDP Forecasting Using Temporal Fusion Transformers," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-26, June.
    33. Krichene, H. & Geiger, T. & Frieler, K. & Willner, S.N. & Sauer, I. & Otto, C., 2021. "Long-term impacts of tropical cyclones and fluvial floods on economic growth – Empirical evidence on transmission channels at different levels of development," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    34. Tkačevs, Olegs & Christodoulopoulou, Styliani, 2014. "Measuring the effectiveness of cost and price competitiveness in external rebalancing of euro area countries: What do alternative HCIs tell us?," Working Paper Series 1736, European Central Bank.
    35. Serhiy Moroz & Khabibullo Pirmatov & Elena Horska & Ludmila Nagyova & Zuzana Polakova, 2017. "The Effect of Selected Economic Indicators on Export of Goods of Regions of Ukraine," Montenegrin Journal of Economics, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research (ELIT), vol. 13(2), pages 141-150.
    36. Dai, Xiaoyong & Zhao, Zhiqi, 2021. "Can exporting resolve overcapacity? Evidence from Chinese steel companies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    37. Radovan Kovačević, 2019. "The Export Performance Of The Euro Area: A Panel Quantile Regression Approach," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 64(222), pages 7-62, July – Se.
    38. Ansgar Belke & Anne Oeking & Ralph Setzer, 2014. "Domestic demand pressure and export dynamics – An empirical threshold model analysis for six euro area countries," EcoMod2014 6780, EcoMod.
    39. Gros, Daniel & Alcidi, Cinzia & Belke, Ansgar & Coutinho, Leonor & Giovannini, Alessandro, 2014. "State-of-play in implementing macroeconomic adjustment programmes in the euro area," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100407, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    40. Helena Engemann & Yaghoob Jafari & Thomas Heckelei, 2023. "Institutional quality and the duration of agri‐food trade flows," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(1), pages 135-154, February.

  5. Paulo Esteves, 2011. "Direct vs bottom-up approach when forecasting GDP: reconciling literature results with institutional practice," Working Papers w201129, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.

    Cited by:

    1. António Rua & Carlos Melo Gouveia & Nuno Lourenço, 2020. "Forecasting tourism with targeted predictors in a data-rich environment," Working Papers w202005, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    2. Katja Drechsel & Dr. Rolf Scheufele, 2012. "Bottom-up or Direct? Forecasting German GDP in a Data-rich Environment," Working Papers 2012-16, Swiss National Bank.
    3. Pinkwart, Nicolas, 2018. "Short-term forecasting economic activity in Germany: A supply and demand side system of bridge equations," Discussion Papers 36/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Cobb, Marcus P A, 2018. "Improving Underlying Scenarios for Aggregate Forecasts: A Multi-level Combination Approach," MPRA Paper 88593, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Joan Paredes & Javier J. Pérez & Gabriel Perez Quiros, 2023. "Fiscal targets. A guide to forecasters?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(4), pages 472-492, June.
    6. Christian Grimme & Robert Lehmann & Marvin Noeller, 2019. "Forecasting Imports with Information from Abroad," ifo Working Paper Series 294, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    7. Cobb, Marcus P A, 2017. "Joint Forecast Combination of Macroeconomic Aggregates and Their Components," MPRA Paper 76556, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Christian Glocker & Serguei Kaniovski, 2020. "Macroeconometric Forecasting Using a Cluster of Dynamic Factor Models," WIFO Working Papers 614, WIFO.
    9. Marcus P. A. Cobb, 2020. "Aggregate density forecasting from disaggregate components using Bayesian VARs," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 287-312, January.
    10. Nicoletta Pashourtidou & Christos Papamichael & Charalampos Karagiannakis, 2018. "Forecasting economic activity in sectors of the Cypriot economy," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 12(2), pages 24-66, December.
    11. Lourenço, Nuno & Gouveia, Carlos Melo & Rua, António, 2021. "Forecasting tourism with targeted predictors in a data-rich environment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 445-454.
    12. Cobb, Marcus P A, 2017. "Forecasting Economic Aggregates Using Dynamic Component Grouping," MPRA Paper 81585, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Marcus Cobb, 2014. "GDP Forecasting Bias due to Aggregation Inaccuracy in a Chain- Linking Framework," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 721, Central Bank of Chile.
    14. Cobb, Marcus P A, 2017. "Aggregate Density Forecasting from Disaggregate Components Using Large VARs," MPRA Paper 76849, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Francisco Dias & Maximiano Pinheiro & António Rua, 2018. "A bottom-up approach for forecasting GDP in a data-rich environment," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(10), pages 718-723, June.

  6. Paulo Esteves & Paulo M.M. Rodrigues, 2010. "Calendar Effects in Daily ATM Withdrawals," Working Papers w201012, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.

    Cited by:

    1. J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Manu García & Luis A. Puch & Jesús Ruiz, 2019. "Calendar effects in daily aggregate employment creation and destruction in Spain," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 25-63, March.
    2. Suder, Marcin & Gurgul, Henryk & Barbosa, Belem & Machno, Artur & Lach, Łukasz, 2024. "Effectiveness of ATM withdrawal forecasting methods under different market conditions," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    3. Duarte, Cláudia & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M. & Rua, António, 2017. "A mixed frequency approach to the forecasting of private consumption with ATM/POS data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 61-75.
    4. Guerino Ardizzi & Simone Emiliozzi & Juri Marcucci & Libero Monteforte, 2019. "News and consumer card payments," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1233, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Alexandre Garel & Benjamin Le pendeven, 2021. "Calendar effects and crowdfunded projects," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(3), pages 1407-1417.
    6. Kosse, Anneke, 2013. "Do newspaper articles on card fraud affect debit card usage?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5382-5391.
    7. Cláudia Duarte, 2016. "A Mixed Frequency Approach to Forecast Private Consumption with ATM/POS Data," Working Papers w201601, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    8. Geoffrey R. Dunbar, 2019. "Demographics and the demand for currency," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 1375-1409, October.
    9. Nicole Jonker & Mirjam Plooij & Johan Verburg, 2017. "Did a Public Campaign Influence Debit Card Usage? Evidence from the Netherlands," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 89-121, October.
    10. Wegmüller, Philipp & Glocker, Christian & Guggia, Valentino, 2023. "Weekly economic activity: Measurement and informational content," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 228-243.
    11. Gurgul, Henryk & Suder, Marcin, 2013. "Modeling of Withdrawals from Selected ATMs of the “Euronet” Network," MPRA Paper 68598, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2013.
    12. Gurgul Henryk & Suder Marcin, 2016. "Calendar and Seasonal Effects on the Size of Withdrawals from Atms Managed By Euronet," Statistics in Transition New Series, Statistics Poland, vol. 17(4), pages 691-722, December.
    13. Alexandre Garel & Benjamin Le Pendeven, 2021. "Calendar effects and crowdfunded projects," Post-Print hal-03377772, HAL.

  7. Paulo Esteves, 2009. "Are ATM/POS Data Relevant When Nowcasting Private Consumption?," Working Papers w200925, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.

    Cited by:

    1. Raquel Nadal Cesar Gonçalves, 2022. "Nowcasting Brazilian GDP with Electronic Payments Data," Working Papers Series 564, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    2. Henryk Gurgul & Marcin Suder, 2013. "The Properties of ATMs Development Stages - an Empirical Analysis," Statistics in Transition new series, Główny Urząd Statystyczny (Polska), vol. 14(3), pages 443-466, September.
    3. Duarte, Cláudia & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M. & Rua, António, 2017. "A mixed frequency approach to the forecasting of private consumption with ATM/POS data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 61-75.
    4. Valentina Aprigliano & Guerino Ardizzi & Libero Monteforte, 2017. "Using the payment system data to forecast the Italian GDP," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1098, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Cláudia Duarte, 2016. "A Mixed Frequency Approach to Forecast Private Consumption with ATM/POS Data," Working Papers w201601, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    6. Tut, Daniel, 2023. "FinTech and the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from electronic payment systems," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    7. Gurgul, Henryk & Suder, Marcin, 2013. "Modeling of Withdrawals from Selected ATMs of the “Euronet” Network," MPRA Paper 68598, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2013.
    8. Gurgul Henryk & Suder Marcin, 2016. "Calendar and Seasonal Effects on the Size of Withdrawals from Atms Managed By Euronet," Statistics in Transition New Series, Statistics Poland, vol. 17(4), pages 691-722, December.
    9. Valentina Aprigliano & Guerino Ardizzi & Alessia Cassetta & Alessandro Cavallero & Simone Emiliozzi & Alessandro Gambini & Nazzareno Renzi & Roberta Zizza, 2021. "Exploiting payments to track Italian economic activity: the experience at Banca d’Italia," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 609, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    10. Filipa Lima, 2014. "The use of payments data to improve monetary and financial analysis," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Proceedings of the Porto Workshop on "Integrated management of micro-databases", volume 37, pages 111-114, Bank for International Settlements.

  8. Paulo Esteves & Maximiano Pinheiro, 2008. "On the uncertainty and risks of macroeconomic forecasts: Combining judgements with sample and model information," Working Papers w200821, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.

    Cited by:

    1. Michal Franta & Jozef Barunik & Roman Horvath & Katerina Smidkova, 2011. "Are Bayesian Fan Charts Useful for Central Banks? Uncertainty, Forecasting, and Financial Stability Stress Tests," Working Papers 2011/10, Czech National Bank.
    2. Fabio Busetti & Michele Caivano & Davide Delle Monache & Claudia Pacella, 2020. "The time-varying risk of Italian GDP," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1288, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Knüppel, Malte & Schultefrankenfeld, Guido, 2011. "How informative are central bank assessments of macroeconomic risks?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,13, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Wojciech Charemza & Carlos Diaz Vela & Svetlana Makarova, 2013. "Inflation fan charts, monetary policy and skew normal distribution," Discussion Papers in Economics 13/06, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    5. Liao, Xin & Peng, Zuoxiang & Nadarajah, Saralees, 2013. "Asymptotic expansions for moments of skew-normal extremes," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(5), pages 1321-1329.
    6. Michal Franta & Jozef Baruník & Roman Horváth & Katerina Smídková, 2014. "Are Bayesian Fan Charts Useful? The Effect of Zero Lower Bound and Evaluation of Financial Stability Stress Tests," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(1), pages 159-188, March.
    7. Liao, Xin & Peng, Zuoxiang & Nadarajah, Saralees & Wang, Xiaoqian, 2014. "Rates of convergence of extremes from skew-normal samples," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 40-47.

  9. Fátima Cardoso & Paulo Esteves, 2008. "What is behind the recent evolution of Portuguese terms of trade?," Working Papers w200805, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.

    Cited by:

    1. Josef L. Loening & Masato Higashi, 2010. "Decomposing Terms of Trade Fluctuations in Ethiopia," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 205, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Carlos Figueira, 2017. "Determinants of the Portuguese GDP stagnation during the 2001-2014 period: an empirical investigation," GEE Papers 0068, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised Mar 2017.
    3. Magomedov, Rustam (Магомедов, Рустам) & Idrisova, Vittoria (Идрисова, Виттория), 2018. "Sectoral Indices of the Terms of Trade: Development of Methodology and Overview for Russia [Отраслевые Индексы Условий Торговли: Разработка Методики И Обзор Для России]," Working Papers 061822, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.

  10. Fátima Cardoso & Paulo Esteves, 2008. "The effects of low-cost countries on Portuguese manufacturing import prices," Working Papers w200804, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.

    Cited by:

    1. Juan Carluccio & Erwan Gautier & Sophie Guilloux-Nefussi, 2018. "Dissecting the Impact of Imports from Low-Wage Countries on French Consumer Prices," Working papers 672, Banque de France.

  11. Paulo Esteves & Carolina Reis, 2006. "Measuring export competitiveness: revisiting the effective exchange rate weights for the euro area countries," Working Papers w200611, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.

    Cited by:

    1. Erika Arraño & Faruk Miguel, 2015. "Tipo de Cambio Real: Revisión Internacional," Economic Statistics Series 112, Central Bank of Chile.
    2. Fernando Alexandre & Pedro Bação & João Cerejeira & Miguel Portela, 2009. "Aggregate and sector-specific exchange rate indexes for the Portuguese economy," Notas Económicas, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra, issue 30, pages 6-28, December.
    3. Oguzhan Ozcelik, 2022. "Does the Foreign Trade-Driven Competitive Power of Transition Economies Converge Toward that of EU14 Countries? Evidence from Fourier Panel Unit Root Test with Sharp and Smooth Breaks," EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 0(36), pages 257-282, June.

  12. Paulo Esteves & Carlos Coimbra, 2004. "Oil prices assumptions in macroeconomic forecasts: should we follow futures market expectations?," Working Papers w200404, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.

    Cited by:

    1. Hooi Hooi Lean & Michael McAleer & Wing-Keung Wong, 2010. "Market Efficiency of Oil Spot and Futures: A Mean-Variance and Stochastic Dominance Approach," Working Papers in Economics 10/18, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    2. Prat, Georges & Uctum, Remzi, 2011. "Modelling oil price expectations: Evidence from survey data," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 236-247, June.
    3. Reitz Stefan & Rülke Jan-Christoph & Stadtmann Georg, 2010. "Regressive Oil Price Expectations Toward More Fundamental Values of the Oil Price," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 230(4), pages 454-466, August.
    4. Svetlana Maslyuk & Russell Smyth, 2007. "Unit Root Properties of Crude Oil Spot and Futures Prices," Monash Economics Working Papers 40-07, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    5. Patrizio Pagano & Massimiliano Pisani, 2006. "Risk-Adjusted Forecasts of Oil Prices," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 585, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. Wirl, Franz, 2008. "Why do oil prices jump (or fall)?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1029-1043, March.
    7. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2023. "Oil price assumptions for macroeconomic policy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    8. Lean, H.H. & McAleer, M.J. & Wong, W.-K., 2010. "Market Efficiency of Oil Spot and Futures: A Stochastic Dominance Approach," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2010-11, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    9. Reitz, Stefan & Ruelke, Jan & Stadtmann, Georg, 2009. "Are oil-price-forecasters finally right? -- Regressive expectations towards more fundamental values of the oil price," MPRA Paper 15607, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2009. "Modelling oil price expectations: evidence from survey data," Working Papers hal-04140866, HAL.
    11. Thomas A. Knetsch, 2007. "Forecasting the price of crude oil via convenience yield predictions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(7), pages 527-549.
    12. Daniele Valenti & Matteo Manera & Alessandro Sbuelz, 2018. "Interpreting the Oil Risk Premium: do Oil Price Shocks Matter?," Working Papers 2018.03, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    13. Alfredo Pereira & Rui Pereira, 2013. "Fossil fuel prices and the economic and budgetary challenges of a small energy-importing economy: the case of Portugal," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 12(3), pages 181-214, December.
    14. Ghoshray, Atanu & Johnson, Ben, 2010. "Trends in world energy prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1147-1156, September.
    15. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2021. "Modeling ex-ante risk premia in the oil market," Post-Print hal-03318785, HAL.
    16. Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin & Gokmenoglu, Korhan & Ekinci, Cagdas, 2013. "Persistence in crude oil spot and futures prices," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 29-37.
    17. Chin Wen Cheong, 2010. "A Variance Ratio Test of Random Walk in Energy Spot Markets," Journal of Quantitative Economics, The Indian Econometric Society, vol. 8(1), pages 105-117, January.
    18. Salah Abosedra, 2005. "Futures versus univariate forecast of crude oil prices," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 29(4), pages 231-241, December.

Articles

  1. Paulo Soares Esteves & Miguel Portela & António Rua, 2022. "Does Domestic Demand Matter for Firms’ Exports?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 311-332, April.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  2. Esteves, Paulo Soares & Prades, Elvira, 2018. "Does export concentration matter in economic adjustment programs? Evidence from the euro-area," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 225-241.

    Cited by:

    1. Daniel A. Dias & Carlos Robalo Marques, 2021. "Every Cloud Has a Silver Lining: Cleansing Effects of the Portuguese Financial Crisis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(2), pages 352-376, April.
    2. Daniel A. Dias, 2018. "Every cloud has a silver lining: micro-level evidence on the cleansing effects of the portuguese financial crisis," Working Papers w201818, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    3. Lenoël, Cyrille & Macchiarelli, Corrado & Young, Garry, 2022. "Greece 2010-18: what could we have done differently?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 115240, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Cyrille Lenoël & Corrado Macchiarelli & Garry Young, 2023. "Greece 2010–18: What Could Have Been Done Differently?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 281-315, April.
    5. Paulo Soares Esteves & Miguel Portela & António Rua, 2018. "Does domestic demand matter for firms’ exports?," NIPE Working Papers 18/2018, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.

  3. Elena Bobeica & Paulo Soares Esteves & António Rua & Karsten Staehr, 2016. "Exports and domestic demand pressure: a dynamic panel data model for the euro area countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 152(1), pages 107-125, February.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  4. Paulo Esteves & António Rua, 2015. "Is there a role for domestic demand pressure on export performance?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 1173-1189, December.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  5. Esteves, Paulo Soares, 2013. "Direct vs bottom–up approach when forecasting GDP: Reconciling literature results with institutional practice," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 416-420.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  6. Maximiano Pinheiro & Paulo Esteves, 2012. "On the uncertainty and risks of macroeconomic forecasts: combining judgements with sample and model information," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 639-665, June.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  7. Paulo Rodrigues & Paulo Esteves, 2010. "Calendar effects in daily ATM withdrawals," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(4), pages 2587-2597.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  8. Carlos Coimbra & Paulo Soares Esteves, 2004. "Oil price assumptions in macroeconomic forecasts: should we follow futures market expectations?," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 28(2), pages 87-106, June.
    See citations under working paper version above.

More information

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Statistics

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Co-authorship network on CollEc

NEP Fields

NEP is an announcement service for new working papers, with a weekly report in each of many fields. This author has had 8 papers announced in NEP. These are the fields, ordered by number of announcements, along with their dates. If the author is listed in the directory of specialists for this field, a link is also provided.
  1. NEP-INT: International Trade (7) 2014-11-12 2015-06-05 2016-02-17 2016-06-18 2017-05-28 2019-02-04 2019-04-15. Author is listed
  2. NEP-EEC: European Economics (5) 2014-11-12 2015-06-05 2016-02-17 2016-06-18 2017-05-28. Author is listed
  3. NEP-CBA: Central Banking (1) 2011-11-07
  4. NEP-FOR: Forecasting (1) 2011-11-07
  5. NEP-MAC: Macroeconomics (1) 2017-05-28
  6. NEP-OPM: Open Economy Macroeconomics (1) 2019-02-04
  7. NEP-SBM: Small Business Management (1) 2019-04-15

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