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Export performance and capacity pressures in Central and Eastern Europe

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  • Karsten Staehr

Abstract

This paper investigates whether various measures of capacity pressure or available production capacity may help predict the dynamics of exports from the EU countries in Central and Eastern Europe. The analysis uses annual panel data for the 11 countries from 2001 to 2019. Reduced-form estimations reveal that measures of cost competitiveness have little or no predictive power. The measures of capacity pressure are capacity utilisation in industry, the unemployment rate and the output gap, and they are all robust predictors of the dynamics of exports. The results are robust to various changes in the time and country sample, control variables and specification, and they also hold in structural panel vector autoregressive models.

Suggested Citation

  • Karsten Staehr, 2021. "Export performance and capacity pressures in Central and Eastern Europe," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 165, pages 204-217.
    • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiie:2021-q1-165-13
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exports; Competitiveness; Capacity utilisation; Output gap; Unemployment; Central and Eastern Europe;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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