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Exports and Capacity Constraints: Evidence for Several Euro Area Countries

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  • Belke, Ansgar
  • Oeking, Anne
  • Setzer, Ralph

Abstract

We argue that, under certain conditions, firms consider exports as a substitute for domestic demand. Our econometric model for six euro area countries suggests domestic demand and capacity constraints as additional variables for export equations. We apply the exponential and logistic variant of a smooth transition regression model and find that domestic demand developments are relevant for short-run export dynamics particularly during more extreme stages of the business cycle. A substitutive relationship between domestic and foreign sales can most clearly be found for Spain, Portugal and Italy, providing evidence of the importance of sunk costs and hysteresis in international trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Belke, Ansgar & Oeking, Anne & Setzer, Ralph, 2015. "Exports and Capacity Constraints: Evidence for Several Euro Area Countries," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113228, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc15:113228
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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