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Determinants of the Portuguese GDP stagnation during the 2001-2014 period: an empirical investigation

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  • Carlos Figueira

    (Nova School of Business and Economics)

Abstract

The current paper aims at analysing the long Portuguese output stagnation during the period 2001-2014. Using a VEC model, the effect of exports, investment, public external liabilities and the country’s risk premium on growth is analysed. Our study reveals that, in the long run, Portuguese GDP is determined by exports, the country’s risk-premium and capital formation while in the short-run, growth is negatively affected by the country’s risk premium and external public liabilities. Our findings also support the vulnerability of the Portuguese economy to external developments, in particular, we identified a negative effect of China’s higher trade integration and the relevance of world market conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Figueira, 2017. "Determinants of the Portuguese GDP stagnation during the 2001-2014 period: an empirical investigation," GEE Papers 0068, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised Mar 2017.
    • Handle: RePEc:mde:wpaper:0068
    as

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    File URL: https://www.gee.gov.pt/RePEc/WorkingPapers/GEE_PAPERS_68.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. João Amador & Carlos Coimbra, 2007. "Characteristics of the Portuguese Economic Growth: What has been Missing?," Working Papers w200708, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
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    5. Vanda Almeida & Gabriela Castro & Ricardo Félix, 2010. "Improving competition in the non-tradable goods and labour markets: the Portuguese case," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 9(3), pages 163-193, December.
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    7. Gabriel Fagan, 2007. "Adjusting to the Euro," Working Papers w200703, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Portuguese Economy; Economic Stagnation; Growth Determinants; VEC model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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