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Michael Peter Clements

Not to be confused with: Michael A. Clemens

Personal Details

First Name:Michael
Middle Name:Peter
Last Name:Clements
Suffix:
RePEc Short-ID:pcl24
[This author has chosen not to make the email address public]
Terminal Degree:1993 Economics Group, Nuffield College; Department of Economics; Oxford University (from RePEc Genealogy)

Affiliation

ICMA Centre for Financial Markets
Henley Business School
University of Reading

Reading, United Kingdom
https://www.icmacentre.ac.uk
RePEc:edi:isrdguk (more details at EDIRC)

Research output

as
Jump to: Working papers Articles Chapters Books

Working papers

  1. Michael Clements & Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2024. "An Investigation into the Uncertainty Revision Process of Professional Forecasters," Working Papers 24-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  2. Michael P. Clements & Shixuan Wang, 2023. "Do Professional Forecasters' Phillips Curves Incorporate the Beliefs of Others?," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2023-05, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
  3. Michael Clements & Robert W. Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2022. "Surveys of Professionals," Working Papers 22-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  4. Cepni, Oguzhan & Clements, Michael P., 2021. "How Local is the Local Inflation Factor? Evidence from Emerging European Countries," Working Papers 8-2021, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Economics.
  5. Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
  6. Michael P. Clements, 2020. "Individual Forecaster Perceptions of the Persistence of Shocks to GDP," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2020-02, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
  7. Michael P. Clements, 2020. "Do Survey Joiners and Leavers Differ from Regular Participants? The US SPF GDP Growth and Inflation Forecasts," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2020-01, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
  8. Michael P. Clements, 2018. "Assessing Macro-Forecaster Herding: Modelling versus Testing," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2018-01, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
  9. Michael Clements, 2017. "Do forecasters target first or later releases of national accounts data?," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2017-03, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
  10. Michael P Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvao, 2017. "Data Revisions and Real-time Probabilistic Forecasting of Macroeconomic Variables," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2017-01, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
  11. Michael Clements, 2016. "Sir Clive W.J. Granger's Contributions to Forecasting," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2016-09, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
  12. Michael Clements, 2016. "Are Macroeconomic Density Forecasts Informative?," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2016-02, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
  13. Michael Clements, 2016. "Are Macro-Forecasters Essentially The Same? An Analysis of Disagreement, Accuracy and Efficiency," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2016-08, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
  14. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2016. "An Overview of Forecasting Facing Breaks," Economics Series Working Papers 779, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  15. Michael P. Clements, 2015. "Assessing Macro Uncertainty In Real-Time When Data Are Subject To Revision," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2015-02, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
  16. Michael Clements, 2015. "Forecasters' Disagreement about How the Economy Operates, and the Role of Long-run Relationships," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2015-09, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
  17. Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvão, 2014. "Measuring Macroeconomic Uncertainty: US Inflation and Output Growth," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2014-04, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
  18. Michael P Clements, 2014. "Assessing the Evidence of Macro- Forecaster Herding: Forecasts of Inflation and Output Growth," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2014-12, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
  19. Michael P. Clements, 2014. "Do US Macroeconomic Forecasters Exaggerate Their Differences?," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2014-10, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
  20. Michael P. Clements, 2014. "Anticipating Early Data Revisions to US GDP and the Effects of Releases on Equity Markets," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2014-06, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
  21. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2014. "Robust Approaches to Forecasting," Economics Series Working Papers 697, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  22. Michael P. Clements, 2014. "Long-Run Restrictions and Survey Forecasts of Output, Consumption and Investment," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2014-02, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
  23. Michael P. Clements, 2014. "Real-Time Factor Model Forecasting and the Effects of Instability," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2014-05, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
  24. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2012. "Forecasting by factors, by variables, or both?," Economics Series Working Papers 600, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  25. Clements, Michael P., 2012. "US inflation expectations and heterogeneous loss functions, 1968–2010," Economic Research Papers 270653, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
  26. Clements, Michael P., 2012. "Probability Distributions or Point Predictions? Survey Forecasts of US Output Growth and Inflation," Economic Research Papers 270748, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
  27. Clements, Michael P., 2012. "Subjective and Ex Post Forecast Uncertainty: US Inflation and Output Growth," Economic Research Papers 270629, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
  28. Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvão, 2011. "Improving Real-time Estimates of Output Gaps and Inflation Trends with Multiple-vintage Models," Working Papers 678, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  29. Clements, Michael P., 2011. "Do Professional Forecasters Pay Attention to Data Releases?," Economic Research Papers 270768, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
  30. Clements, Michael P. & Beatriz Galvao, Ana, 2010. "Real-time Forecasting of Inflation and Output Growth in the Presence of Data Revisions," Economic Research Papers 270771, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
  31. Clements, Michael P., 2010. "Why are survey forecasts superior to model forecasts?," Economic Research Papers 270770, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
  32. David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2010. "Forecasting from Mis-specified Models in the Presence of Unanticipated Location Shifts," Economics Series Working Papers 484, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  33. Clements, Michael P., 2008. "Rounding of probability forecasts: The SPF forecast probabilities of negative output growth," Economic Research Papers 269880, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
  34. Clements, Michael P. & Beatriz Galvao, Ana, 2008. "First Announcements and Real Economic Activity," Economic Research Papers 271314, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
  35. Clements, Michael P., 2008. "Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents' forecasts," Economic Research Papers 269881, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
  36. Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvão, 2007. "Macroeconomic Forecasting with Mixed Frequency Data: Forecasting US Output Growth," Working Papers 616, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  37. Clements, Michael P., 2006. "Internal consistency of survey respondentsíforecasts: Evidence based on the Survey of Professional Forecasters," Economic Research Papers 269742, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
  38. Clements, Michael P. & Galvao, Ana Beatriz & Kim, Jae H., 2006. "Quantile Forecasts of Daily Exchange Rate Returns from Forecasts of Realized Volatility," Economic Research Papers 269747, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
  39. Clements, Michael P. & Galvao, Ana Beatriz, 2006. "Macroeconomic Forecasting with Mixed Frequency Data: Forecasting US output growth and inflation," Economic Research Papers 269743, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
  40. Clements, Michael P. & Harvey, David I., 2006. "Forecast Encompassing Tests and Probability Forecasts," Economic Research Papers 269744, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
  41. Michael P. Clements & Philip Hans Franses & Norman R. Swanson, 2003. "Forecasting economic and financial time-series with non-linear models," Departmental Working Papers 200309, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  42. Hans-Martin Krolzig & Michael P. Clements & Department of Economics & University of Warwick, 2001. "Modelling Business Cycle Features Using Switching Regime Models," Economics Series Working Papers 58, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  43. David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2001. "Pooling of Forecasts," Economics Papers 2002-W9, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  44. Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 2001. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Working Paper Series 82, European Central Bank.
  45. Clements, M.P. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Smith, J., 1999. "On SETAR non- linearity and forecasting," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9914-/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  46. Clements, Michael P. & Smith, Jeremy, 1998. "Evaluating The Forecast Densities Of Linear And Non-Linear Models: Applications To Output Growth And Unemployment," Economic Research Papers 268791, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
  47. Clements, Michael P. & Smith, Jeremy, 1998. "Non-Linearities In Exchange Rates," Economic Research Papers 268786, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
  48. Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 1998. "Forecasting With Difference-Stationary And Trend-Stationary Models," Economic Research Papers 268798, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
  49. Clements, Michael & Krolzig, Hans-Martin, 1998. "Business Cycle Asymmetries: Characterisation and Testing based on Markov-Switching Autoregressions," Economic Research Papers 269248, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
  50. Clements, M.P. & Krolzig, H.-M., 1997. "A Comparison of the Forecasting Performance of Markov-Switching and Threshold Autoregressive Models of US GNP," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 489, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  51. Clements, Michael P. & Krolzig, Hans-Martin, 1997. "A Comparison Of The Forecast Performance Of Markov-Switching And Threshold Autoregressive Models Of Us Gnp," Economic Research Papers 268771, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
  52. Clements, Michael P. & Madlener, Reinhard, 1997. "Seasonality, Cointegration, And The Forecasting Of Energy Demand," Economic Research Papers 268766, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
  53. Clements, Michael & Smith, Jeremy, 1997. "Forecasting Seasonal Uk Consumption Components," Economic Research Papers 268761, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
  54. Clements, Michael P. & Smith, Jeremy, 1996. "The Performance of Alternative Forecasting Methods for SETAR Models," Economic Research Papers 268737, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
  55. Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 1996. "Multi-Step Estimation For Forecasting," Economic Research Papers 268696, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
  56. Clements, Michael P., 1996. "Evaluating the rationality of fixed-event forecasts," Economic Research Papers 268705, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
  57. Clements, Michael P & Smith, Jeremy, 1996. "A Monte Carlo Study of the Forecasting Performance of Empirical Setar Models," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 464, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  58. Clements, M.P. & Hendry, D., 1992. "On the Limitations of Comparing Mean Square Forecast Errors," Economics Series Working Papers 99138, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  59. Clements, M.P. & Hendry, D.F., 1992. "Forecasting in Cointegrated Systems," Economics Series Working Papers 99139, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  60. Clements, M.P., 1991. "Testing Structural Hypotheses by Encompassing : Us Wages and Prices is the Mark-Up Pricing Hypothesis Dead?," Economics Series Working Papers 99114, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  61. Clements, M.P., 1990. "The Mathematical Structure Of Models That Exhibit Cointegration: A Survey Of Recent Approaches," Economics Series Working Papers 9985, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  62. Clements, M.P., 1989. "The Estimation And Testing Of Cointegrating Vectors: A Survey Of Recent Approaches And An Application To The U.K. Non-Durable Consumption Function," Economics Series Working Papers 9979, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
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Articles

  1. Jian Chen & Michael P Clements & Andrew Urquhart, 2024. "Modeling Price and Variance Jump Clustering Using the Marked Hawkes Process," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 22(3), pages 743-772.
  2. Clements, Michael P., 2024. "Do professional forecasters believe in the Phillips curve?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 1238-1254.
  3. Cepni, Oguzhan & Clements, Michael P., 2024. "How local is the local inflation factor? Evidence from emerging European countries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 160-183.
  4. Clements, Michael P., 2024. "Survey expectations and adjustments for multiple testing," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 224(C), pages 338-354.
  5. Affan Hameed & Carol Padgett & Michael P. Clements & Subhan Ullah, 2023. "The choice of performance measures, target setting and vesting levels in UK firms' Chief Executive Officer equity‐based compensation," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 4246-4270, October.
  6. Bantis, Evripidis & Clements, Michael P. & Urquhart, Andrew, 2023. "Forecasting GDP growth rates in the United States and Brazil using Google Trends," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1909-1924.
  7. Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvão, 2023. "Density forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressive models under macroeconomic data uncertainty," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(2), pages 164-185, March.
  8. Michael P. Clements, 2022. "Individual forecaster perceptions of the persistence of shocks to GDP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(3), pages 640-656, April.
  9. Michael P. Clements, 2022. "Forecaster Efficiency, Accuracy, and Disagreement: Evidence Using Individual‐Level Survey Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(2-3), pages 537-568, March.
  10. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
    • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
  11. Clements, Michael P. & Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2021. "Measuring the effects of expectations shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
  12. Clements, Michael P., 2021. "Rounding behaviour of professional macro-forecasters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1614-1631.
  13. Clements, Michael P., 2021. "Do survey joiners and leavers differ from regular participants? The US SPF GDP growth and inflation forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 634-646.
  14. Michael P. Clements, 2020. "Are Some Forecasters’ Probability Assessments of Macro Variables Better Than Those of Others?," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-16, May.
  15. Clements, Michael P. & Reade, J. James, 2020. "Forecasting and forecast narratives: The Bank of England Inflation Reports," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1488-1500.
  16. Clements, Michael P., 2019. "Do forecasters target first or later releases of national accounts data?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1240-1249.
  17. Clements, Michael P., 2018. "Are macroeconomic density forecasts informative?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 181-198.
  18. Michael P. Clements, 2018. "Do Macroforecasters Herd?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(2-3), pages 265-292, March.
  19. Meng, Yijun & Clements, Michael P. & Padgett, Carol, 2018. "Independent directors, information costs and foreign ownership in Chinese companies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 139-157.
  20. Michael P. Clements, 2017. "Assessing Macro Uncertainty in Real-Time When Data Are Subject To Revision," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 420-433, July.
  21. Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvão, 2017. "Predicting Early Data Revisions to U.S. GDP and the Effects of Releases on Equity Markets," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 389-406, July.
  22. Clements, Michael P. & Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2017. "Model and survey estimates of the term structure of US macroeconomic uncertainty," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 591-604.
  23. Clements, Michael P., 2016. "Long-run restrictions and survey forecasts of output, consumption and investment," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 614-628.
  24. Jennifer L. Castle & Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2016. "An Overview of Forecasting Facing Breaks," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 12(1), pages 3-23, September.
  25. Clements, Michael P., 2016. "Real-time factor model forecasting and the effects of instability," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 661-675.
  26. Carriero, Andrea & Clements, Michael P. & Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2015. "Forecasting with Bayesian multivariate vintage-based VARs," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 757-768.
  27. Michael P. Clements, 2015. "Do US Macroeconomic Forecasters Exaggerate their Differences?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(8), pages 649-660, December.
  28. Castle, Jennifer L. & Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 2015. "Robust approaches to forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 99-112.
  29. Michael P. Clements, 2015. "Are Professional Macroeconomic Forecasters Able To Do Better Than Forecasting Trends?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(2-3), pages 349-382, March.
  30. Clements, Michael P., 2014. "Probability distributions or point predictions? Survey forecasts of US output growth and inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 99-117.
  31. Michael P. Clements, 2014. "Forecast Uncertainty- Ex Ante and Ex Post : U.S. Inflation and Output Growth," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 206-216, April.
  32. Michael P. Clements, 2014. "US Inflation Expectations and Heterogeneous Loss Functions, 1968–2010," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(1), pages 1-14, January.
  33. Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvão, 2013. "Real‐Time Forecasting Of Inflation And Output Growth With Autoregressive Models In The Presence Of Data Revisions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 458-477, April.
  34. Clements, Michael P. & Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2013. "Forecasting with vector autoregressive models of data vintages: US output growth and inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 698-714.
  35. Castle, Jennifer L. & Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 2013. "Forecasting by factors, by variables, by both or neither?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 305-319.
  36. Clements Michael P., 2012. "Forecasting U.S. Output Growth with Non-Linear Models in the Presence of Data Uncertainty," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 1-27, January.
  37. Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvão, 2012. "Improving Real-Time Estimates of Output and Inflation Gaps With Multiple-Vintage Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 554-562, May.
  38. Clements, Michael P., 2012. "Do professional forecasters pay attention to data releases?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 297-308.
  39. Clements, Michael P. & Harvey, David I., 2011. "Combining probability forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 208-223, April.
  40. Michael P. Clements, 2011. "An Empirical Investigation of the Effects of Rounding on the SPF Probabilities of Decline and Output Growth Histograms," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(1), pages 207-220, February.
  41. Clements, Michael P. & Beatriz Galvão, Ana, 2010. "First announcements and real economic activity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 803-817, August.
  42. Clements, Michael P., 2010. "Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents' forecasts," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 536-549, May.
  43. Michael P. Clements & David I. Harvey, 2010. "Forecast encompassing tests and probability forecasts," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(6), pages 1028-1062.
  44. Clements, Michael P., 2009. "Comments on "Forecasting economic and financial variables with global VARs"," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 680-683, October.
  45. Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvao, 2009. "Forecasting US output growth using leading indicators: an appraisal using MIDAS models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(7), pages 1187-1206.
  46. Clements, Michael P. & Milas, Costas & van Dijk, Dick, 2009. "Forecasting returns and risk in financial markets using linear and nonlinear models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 215-217.
  47. Clements, Michael P & Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2008. "Macroeconomic Forecasting With Mixed-Frequency Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 546-554.
  48. Clements, Michael P. & Galvão, Ana Beatriz & Kim, Jae H., 2008. "Quantile forecasts of daily exchange rate returns from forecasts of realized volatility," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 729-750, September.
  49. Clements, Michael P., 2008. "Consensus and uncertainty: Using forecast probabilities of output declines," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 76-86.
  50. Clements Michael P. & Hendry David F., 2008. "Economic Forecasting in a Changing World," Capitalism and Society, De Gruyter, vol. 3(2), pages 1-20, October.
  51. Clements, Michael P. & Kim, Jae H., 2007. "Bootstrap prediction intervals for autoregressive time series," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 3580-3594, April.
  52. Fred Joutz & Michael P. Clements & Herman O. Stekler, 2007. "An evaluation of the forecasts of the federal reserve: a pooled approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 121-136.
  53. Michael Clements, 2006. "Evaluating the survey of professional forecasters probability distributions of expected inflation based on derived event probability forecasts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 49-64, March.
  54. Michael P. Clements & Robert Witt, 2005. "Forecasting Quarterly Aggregate Crime Series," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 73(6), pages 709-727, December.
  55. Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2005. "Evaluating a Model by Forecast Performance," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(s1), pages 931-956, December.
  56. Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2005. "Guest Editors’ Introduction: Information in Economic Forecasting," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(s1), pages 713-753, December.
  57. David F. Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2004. "Pooling of forecasts," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(1), pages 1-31, June.
  58. Michael P. Clements & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2004. "Can regime-switching models reproduce the business cycle features of US aggregate consumption, investment and output?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(1), pages 1-14.
  59. Clements, Michael P. & Galvao, Ana Beatriz, 2004. "A comparison of tests of nonlinear cointegration with application to the predictability of US interest rates using the term structure," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 219-236.
  60. Clements, Michael P. & Franses, Philip Hans & Swanson, Norman R., 2004. "Forecasting economic and financial time-series with non-linear models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 169-183.
  61. Michael P. Clements, 2004. "Evaluating the Bank of England Density Forecasts of Inflation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(498), pages 844-866, October.
  62. Michael P. Clements & Nick Taylor, 2003. "Evaluating interval forecasts of high-frequency financial data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 445-456.
  63. Michael P. Clements & Marianne Sensier, 2003. "Asymmetric output‐gap effects in Phillips Curve and mark‐up pricing models: Evidence for the US and the UK," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 50(4), pages 359-374, September.
  64. Dick van Dijk & Philip Hans Franses & Michael P. Clements & Jeremy Smith, 2003. "On SETAR non-linearity and forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(5), pages 359-375.
  65. Clements, Michael P., 2003. "Some possible directions for future research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 1-3.
  66. Hendry, David F. & Clements, Michael P., 2003. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 301-329, March.
  67. Clements, Michael P. & Galvão, Ana Beatriz C., 2003. "Testing The Expectations Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates In Threshold Models," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(4), pages 567-585, September.
  68. Clements, Michael P & Krolzig, Hans-Martin, 2003. "Business Cycle Asymmetries: Characterization and Testing Based on Markov-Switching Autoregressions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(1), pages 196-211, January.
  69. Clements, Michael P. & Smith, Jeremy, 2002. "Evaluating multivariate forecast densities: a comparison of two approaches," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 397-407.
  70. Ana B. C. Galvão & Michael P. Clements, 2002. "Conditional mean functions of non-linear models of US output," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 569-586.
  71. Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2002. "Modelling methodology and forecast failure," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(2), pages 319-344, June.
  72. Clements, Michael P., 2002. "Comments on 'The state of macroeconomic forecasting'," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 469-482, December.
  73. Hans-Martin Krolzig & Michael P. Clements, 2002. "Can oil shocks explain asymmetries in the US Business Cycle?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 185-204.
  74. Clements, Michael P. & Smith, Jeremy, 2001. "Evaluating forecasts from SETAR models of exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 133-148, February.
  75. Clements, Michael P & Taylor, Nick, 2001. "Robust Evaluation of Fixed-Event Forecast Rationality," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(4), pages 285-295, July.
  76. Clements, Michael P. & Taylor, Nick, 2001. "Bootstrapping prediction intervals for autoregressive models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 247-267.
  77. Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 2001. "An Historical Perspective on Forecast Errors," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 177, pages 100-112, July.
  78. Michael P. Clements & David F.Hendry, 2001. "Forecasting with difference-stationary and trend-stationary models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(1), pages 1-19.
  79. Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 1999. "On winning forecasting competitions in economics," Spanish Economic Review, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 123-160.
  80. Michael P. Clements & Reinhard Madlener, 1999. "Seasonality, Cointegration, and Forecasting UK Residential Energy Demand," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 46(2), pages 185-206, May.
  81. Clements, Michael P & Smith, Jeremy, 1999. "A Monte Carlo Study of the Forecasting Performance of Empirical SETAR Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 123-141, March-Apr.
  82. Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 1998. "Forecasting economic processes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 111-131, March.
  83. Michael P. Clements & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 1998. "A comparison of the forecast performance of Markov-switching and threshold autoregressive models of US GNP," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 1(Conferenc), pages 47-75.
  84. Clements, Michael P. & Smith, Jeremy, 1997. "The performance of alternative forecasting methods for SETAR models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 463-475, December.
  85. Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 1997. "An empirical study of seasonal unit roots in forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 341-355, September.
  86. Clements, Michael P & Hendry, David F, 1996. "Multi-step Estimation for Forecasting," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(4), pages 657-684, November.
  87. Clements, Michael P & Hendry, David F, 1996. "Intercept Corrections and Structural Change," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 475-494, Sept.-Oct.
  88. Clements, Michael P & Hendry, David F, 1995. "Forecasting in Cointegration Systems," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 127-146, April-Jun.
  89. Clements, Michael P & Hendry, David F, 1995. "Macro-economic Forecasting and Modelling," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(431), pages 1001-1013, July.
  90. Clements, Michael P, 1995. "Rationality and the Role of Judgement in Macroeconomic Forecasting," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(429), pages 410-420, March.
  91. David F. Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 1994. "Can Econometrics Improve Economic Forecasting?," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 130(III), pages 267-298, September.
  92. Clements, Michael P. & Mizon, Grayham E., 1991. "Empirical analysis of macroeconomic time series : VAR and structural models," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 887-917, May.
  93. Walker, John & Rossi, Vanessa & Clements, Michael, 1987. "The World and UK Economy: Analysis and Prospects," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 3(1), pages 1-1, Spring.
  94. Walker, John & Clements, Michael, 1986. "The UK Economy: Analysis and Prospects," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 2(2), pages 1-1, Summer.
  95. Rossi, Vanessa & Clements, Michael, 1986. "The World Economy: Analysis and Prospects," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 2(1), pages 1-1, Summer.

Chapters

  1. Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvão, 2024. "Real-time data and forecasting," Chapters, in: Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvão (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Macroeconomic Forecasting, chapter 13, pages 334-360, Edward Elgar Publishing.
  2. Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvão, 2024. "Introduction to the Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Macroeconomic Forecasting," Chapters, in: Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvão (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Macroeconomic Forecasting, chapter 1, pages 1-14, Edward Elgar Publishing.
  3. Michael P. Clements & David I. Harvey, 2009. "Forecast Combination and Encompassing," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Terence C. Mills & Kerry Patterson (ed.), Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics, chapter 4, pages 169-198, Palgrave Macmillan.
  4. Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2008. "Chapter 1 Forecasting Annual UK Inflation Using an Econometric Model over 1875–1991," Frontiers of Economics and Globalization, in: Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks and Model Uncertainty, pages 3-39, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
  5. Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvao, 2006. "Combining Predictors and Combining Information in Modelling: Forecasting US Recession Probabilities and Output Growth," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Business Cycles, pages 55-73, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
  6. Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 2006. "Forecasting with Breaks," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 12, pages 605-657, Elsevier.
    RePEc:eme:feg111:s1574-8715(07)00201-1 is not listed on IDEAS
    RePEc:eme:cea111:s0573-8555(05)76002-8 is not listed on IDEAS

Books

  1. Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvão (ed.), 2024. "Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Macroeconomic Forecasting," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 22222.
  2. Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F. (ed.), 2011. "The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195398649.
  3. Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2001. "Forecasting Non-Stationary Economic Time Series," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262531895, April.
  4. Clements,Michael & Hendry,David, 1998. "Forecasting Economic Time Series," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521632423, September.

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Statistics

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  21. h-index
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  34. Euclidian citation score
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  37. Wu-Index
  38. Record of graduates

Co-authorship network on CollEc

NEP Fields

NEP is an announcement service for new working papers, with a weekly report in each of many fields. This author has had 39 papers announced in NEP. These are the fields, ordered by number of announcements, along with their dates. If the author is listed in the directory of specialists for this field, a link is also provided.
  1. NEP-FOR: Forecasting (28) 2006-11-18 2006-11-18 2006-11-18 2007-01-14 2007-10-27 2008-10-13 2008-10-13 2010-05-15 2011-01-03 2011-01-03 2011-06-11 2012-03-08 2012-04-10 2012-05-02 2012-09-09 2014-04-11 2014-07-28 2014-10-22 2014-11-07 2014-11-17 2015-03-22 2016-04-09 2016-10-30 2016-10-30 2017-02-19 2019-04-29 2020-02-17 2022-03-21. Author is listed
  2. NEP-ECM: Econometrics (17) 2002-05-03 2002-05-03 2002-07-12 2003-12-07 2006-11-18 2006-11-18 2007-01-14 2007-10-27 2008-10-13 2008-10-13 2010-05-15 2011-01-03 2011-06-11 2012-05-02 2014-04-11 2015-04-02 2016-04-09. Author is listed
  3. NEP-MAC: Macroeconomics (17) 2006-11-18 2006-11-18 2007-10-27 2008-10-13 2008-10-13 2011-01-03 2011-06-11 2012-03-08 2012-04-10 2014-07-28 2014-07-28 2014-11-17 2015-03-22 2016-10-30 2019-04-29 2020-02-17 2021-03-29. Author is listed
  4. NEP-CBA: Central Banking (14) 2006-11-18 2006-11-18 2007-01-14 2007-10-27 2008-10-13 2008-10-13 2010-05-15 2011-01-03 2011-01-03 2011-02-05 2011-06-11 2012-04-10 2015-03-22 2021-03-29. Author is listed
  5. NEP-ETS: Econometric Time Series (11) 2001-12-14 2002-05-03 2002-05-03 2002-07-08 2003-12-07 2006-11-18 2006-11-18 2007-01-14 2010-05-15 2012-05-02 2014-11-07. Author is listed
  6. NEP-MON: Monetary Economics (3) 2012-04-10 2020-02-17 2023-05-08
  7. NEP-LAM: Central and South America (2) 2001-12-04 2002-07-04
  8. NEP-BAN: Banking (1) 2022-03-21
  9. NEP-CWA: Central and Western Asia (1) 2022-03-21
  10. NEP-EEC: European Economics (1) 2001-12-14
  11. NEP-FIN: Finance (1) 2003-12-07
  12. NEP-GER: German Papers (1) 2014-04-11
  13. NEP-IFN: International Finance (1) 2007-01-14
  14. NEP-RMG: Risk Management (1) 2007-01-14
  15. NEP-UPT: Utility Models and Prospect Theory (1) 2022-03-21

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