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Why are survey forecasts superior to model forecasts?

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  • Clements, Michael P.

Abstract

We investigate two characteristics of survey forecasts that are shown to contribute to their superiority over purely model-based forecasts. These are that the consensus forecasts incorporate the e§ects of perceived changes in the long-run outlook, as well as embodying departures from the path toward the long-run expectation. Both characteristics on average tend to enhance forecast accuracy. At the level of the individual forecasts, there is scant evidence that the second characteristic enhances forecast accuracy, and the average accuracy of the individual forecasts can be improved by applying a mechanical correction.

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  • Clements, Michael P., 2010. "Why are survey forecasts superior to model forecasts?," Economic Research Papers 270770, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:uwarer:270770
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.270770
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