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Quantifying the Urban Water Supply Impacts of Climate Change

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  • Jeffrey O’Hara
  • Konstantine Georgakakos

Abstract

The difference in timing between water supply and urban water demand necessitates water storage. Existing reservoirs were designed based upon hydrologic data from a given historical period, and, given recent evidence for climatic change, may be insufficient to meet demand under future climate change scenarios. The focus of this study is to present a generally applicable methodology to assess the ability of existing storage to meet urban water demand under present and projected future climatic scenarios, and to determine the effectiveness of storage capacity expansions. Uncertainties in climatic forcing and projected demand scenarios are considered explicitly by the models. The reservoir system in San Diego, California is used as a case study. We find that the climate change scenarios will be more costly to the city than scenarios using historical hydrologic parameters. The magnitude of the expected costs and the optimal investment policy are sensitive to projected population growth and the accuracy to which our model can predict spills. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2008

Suggested Citation

  • Jeffrey O’Hara & Konstantine Georgakakos, 2008. "Quantifying the Urban Water Supply Impacts of Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 22(10), pages 1477-1497, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:22:y:2008:i:10:p:1477-1497
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-008-9238-8
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    5. Hsiao-Wen Wang & Pin-Han Kuo & Jenq-Tzong Shiau, 2013. "Assessment of climate change impacts on flooding vulnerability for lowland management in southwestern Taiwan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 68(2), pages 1001-1019, September.
    6. Bart Bruggen & Karolien Borghgraef & Chris Vinckier, 2010. "Causes of Water Supply Problems in Urbanised Regions in Developing Countries," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(9), pages 1885-1902, July.
    7. Christina Connell-Buck & Josué Medellín-Azuara & Jay Lund & Kaveh Madani, 2011. "Adapting California’s water system to warm vs. dry climates," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 133-149, December.
    8. Olanike Aladenola & Omotayo Adeboye, 2010. "Assessing the Potential for Rainwater Harvesting," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(10), pages 2129-2137, August.
    9. Aude Lemonsu & Raphaëlle Kounkou-Arnaud & Julien Desplat & Jean-Luc Salagnac & Valéry Masson, 2013. "Evolution of the Parisian urban climate under a global changing climate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 116(3), pages 679-692, February.
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    12. Park, Jangho & Bayraksan, Güzin, 2023. "A multistage distributionally robust optimization approach to water allocation under climate uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 306(2), pages 849-871.

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