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Streamflow Forecast and Reservoir Operation Performance Assessment Under Climate Change

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  • Lanhai Li
  • Honggang Xu
  • Xi Chen
  • S. Simonovic

Abstract

This study attempts to investigate potential impacts of future climate change on streamflow and reservoir operation performance in a Northern American Prairie watershed. System Dynamics is employed as an effective methodology to organize and integrate existing information available on climate change scenarios, watershed hydrologic processes, reservoir operation and water resource assessment system. The second version of the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis Coupled Global Climate Model is selected to generate the climate change scenarios with daily climatic data series for hydrologic modeling. Watershed-based hydrologic and reservoir water dynamics modeling focuses on dynamic processes of both streamflow generation driven by climatic conditions, and the reservoir water dynamics based on reservoir operation rules. The reliability measure describes the effectiveness of present reservoir operation rules to meet various demands which are assumed to remain constant for the next 100 years in order to focus the study on the understanding of the structure and the behaviour of the water supply. Simulation results demonstrate that future climate variation and change may bring more high-peak-streamflow occurrences and more abundant water resources. Current reservoir operation rules can provide a high reliability in drought protection and flood control. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010

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  • Lanhai Li & Honggang Xu & Xi Chen & S. Simonovic, 2010. "Streamflow Forecast and Reservoir Operation Performance Assessment Under Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(1), pages 83-104, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:24:y:2010:i:1:p:83-104
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-009-9438-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Slobodan Simonovic & Lanhai Li, 2004. "Sensitivity of the Red River Basin Flood Protection System to Climate Variability and Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 18(2), pages 89-110, April.
    2. T. P. Barnett & J. C. Adam & D. P. Lettenmaier, 2005. "Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions," Nature, Nature, vol. 438(7066), pages 303-309, November.
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    1. Guangxing Ji & Zhizhu Lai & Haibin Xia & Hao Liu & Zheng Wang, 2021. "Future Runoff Variation and Flood Disaster Prediction of the Yellow River Basin Based on CA-Markov and SWAT," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-19, April.
    2. Sabah Fayaed & Ahmed El-Shafie & Othman Jaafar, 2013. "Integrated Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) Model for Optimal Release Policy," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(10), pages 3679-3696, August.
    3. Ali Assani & Raphaëlle Landry & Jonathan Daigle & Alain Chalifour, 2011. "Reservoirs Effects on the Interannual Variability of Winter and Spring Streamflow in the St-Maurice River Watershed (Quebec, Canada)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(14), pages 3661-3675, November.
    4. Uriel Huaringa Alvarez & Mélanie Trudel & Robert Leconte, 2014. "Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change Using a Reservoir Management Tool to a Northern Watershed: Application to Lièvre River Watershed, Quebec, Canada," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(11), pages 3667-3680, September.
    5. Hongbo Ling & Hailiang Xu & Jinyi Fu, 2013. "Temporal and Spatial Variation in Regional Climate and its Impact on Runoff in Xinjiang, China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(2), pages 381-399, January.
    6. Sajjad Ahmad & Dinesh Prashar, 2010. "Evaluating Municipal Water Conservation Policies Using a Dynamic Simulation Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(13), pages 3371-3395, October.
    7. Umut Okkan & Umut Kirdemir, 2018. "Investigation of the Behavior of an Agricultural-Operated Dam Reservoir Under RCP Scenarios of AR5-IPCC," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(8), pages 2847-2866, June.
    8. Yutao Qi & Liang Bao & Yingying Sun & Jungang Luo & Qiguang Miao, 2016. "A Memetic Multi-objective Immune Algorithm for Reservoir Flood Control Operation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(9), pages 2957-2977, July.
    9. Ruqayah Mohammed & Miklas Scholz, 2017. "Adaptation Strategy to Mitigate the Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions: a Case Study," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(11), pages 3557-3573, September.
    10. Zhihe Chen & Shuai Wei, 2014. "Application of System Dynamics to Water Security Research," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(2), pages 287-300, January.
    11. Hassan Alimohammadi & Ali Reza Massah Bavani & Abbas Roozbahani, 2020. "Mitigating the Impacts of Climate Change on the Performance of Multi-Purpose Reservoirs by Changing the Operation Policy from SOP to MLDR," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(4), pages 1495-1516, March.
    12. Amin Asadollahi & Binod Ale Magar & Bishal Poudel & Asyeh Sohrabifar & Ajay Kalra, 2024. "Application of Machine Learning Models for Improving Discharge Prediction in Ungauged Watershed: A Case Study in East DuPage, Illinois," Geographies, MDPI, vol. 4(2), pages 1-15, June.
    13. Olmstead, Sheila M., 2014. "Climate change adaptation and water resource management: A review of the literature," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 500-509.

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