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A probabilistic framework for assessing vulnerability to climate variability and change: the case of the US water supply system

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  • Romano Foti
  • Jorge Ramirez
  • Thomas Brown

Abstract

We introduce a probabilistic framework for vulnerability analysis and use it to quantify current and future vulnerability of the US water supply system. We also determine the contributions of hydro-climatic and socio-economic drivers to the changes in projected vulnerability. For all scenarios and global climate models examined, the US Southwest including California and the southern Great Plains was consistently found to be the most vulnerable. For most of the US, the largest contributions to changes in vulnerability come from changes in supply. However, for some areas of the West changes in vulnerability are caused mainly by changes in demand. These changes in supply and demand result mainly from changes in evapotranspiration rather than from changes in precipitation. Importantly, changes in vulnerability from projected changes in the standard deviations of precipitation and evapotranspiration are of about the same magnitude or larger than those from changes in the corresponding means over most of the US, except in large areas of the Great Plains, in central California and southern and central Texas. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Romano Foti & Jorge Ramirez & Thomas Brown, 2014. "A probabilistic framework for assessing vulnerability to climate variability and change: the case of the US water supply system," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 125(3), pages 413-427, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:125:y:2014:i:3:p:413-427
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1111-6
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    1. Ferdinand A. Gul & Judy S. L. Tsui, 2004. "Introduction and overview," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: The Governance of East Asian Corporations, chapter 1, pages 1-26, Palgrave Macmillan.
    2. T. P. Barnett & J. C. Adam & D. P. Lettenmaier, 2005. "Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions," Nature, Nature, vol. 438(7066), pages 303-309, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael J. Scott & Don S. Daly & Mohamad I. Hejazi & G. Page Kyle & Lu Liu & Haewon C. McJeon & Anupriya Mundra & Pralit L. Patel & Jennie S. Rice & Nathalie Voisin, 2016. "Sensitivity of future U.S. Water shortages to socioeconomic and climate drivers: a case study in Georgia using an integrated human-earth system modeling framework," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 136(2), pages 233-246, May.
    2. Romano Foti & Jorge Ramirez & Thomas Brown, 2014. "Response surfaces of vulnerability to climate change: the Colorado River Basin, the High Plains, and California," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 125(3), pages 429-444, August.

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