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Evolution of the Parisian urban climate under a global changing climate

Author

Listed:
  • Aude Lemonsu
  • Raphaëlle Kounkou-Arnaud
  • Julien Desplat
  • Jean-Luc Salagnac
  • Valéry Masson

Abstract

The evolution of the Parisian urban climate under a changing climate is analyzed from long-term offline numerical integrations including a specific urban parameterization. This system is forced by meteorological conditions based on present-climate reanalyses (1970–2007), and climate projections (2071–2099) provided by global climate model simulations following two emission scenarios (A1B and A2). This study aims at quantifying the impact of climate change on air temperature within the city and in the surroundings. A systematic increase of 2-meter air temperature is found. In average according to the two scenarios, it reaches + 2.0/2.4°C in winter and + 3.5/5.0°C in summer for the minimum and maximum daily temperatures, respectively. During summer, the warming trend is more pronounced in the surrounding countryside than in Paris and suburbs due to the soil dryness. As a result, a substantial decrease of the strong urban heat islands is noted at nighttime, and numerous events with negative urban heat islands appear at daytime. Finally, a 30% decrease of the heating degree days is quantified in winter between present and future climates. Inversely, the summertime cooling degree days significantly increase in future climate whereas they are negligible in present climate. However, in terms of accumulated degree days, the increase of the demand in cooling remains smaller than the decrease of the demand in heating. Copyright The Author(s) 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Aude Lemonsu & Raphaëlle Kounkou-Arnaud & Julien Desplat & Jean-Luc Salagnac & Valéry Masson, 2013. "Evolution of the Parisian urban climate under a global changing climate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 116(3), pages 679-692, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:116:y:2013:i:3:p:679-692
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-012-0521-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jeffrey O’Hara & Konstantine Georgakakos, 2008. "Quantifying the Urban Water Supply Impacts of Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 22(10), pages 1477-1497, October.
    2. Stéphane Hallegatte & Philippe Ambrosi & Jean Charles Hourcade, 2007. "Using Climate Analogues for Assessing Climate Change Economic Impacts in Urban Areas," Post-Print hal-00164627, HAL.
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    Cited by:

    1. Guo, Xiaofeng & Hendel, Martin, 2018. "Urban water networks as an alternative source for district heating and emergency heat-wave cooling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 79-87.
    2. Kohler, M. & Blond, N. & Clappier, A., 2016. "A city scale degree-day method to assess building space heating energy demands in Strasbourg Eurometropolis (France)," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 40-54.
    3. Ye, Bin & Jiang, Jingjing & Liu, Junguo & Zheng, Yi & Zhou, Nan, 2021. "Research on quantitative assessment of climate change risk at an urban scale: Review of recent progress and outlook of future direction," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    4. Yingjiu Bai & Ikuyo Kaneko & Hikaru Kobayashi & Kazuo Kurihara & Izuru Takayabu & Hidetaka Sasaki & Akihiko Murata, 2014. "A Geographic Information System (GIS)-based approach to adaptation to regional climate change: a case study of Okutama-machi, Tokyo, Japan," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 19(5), pages 589-614, June.
    5. Elmira Jamei & Gokul Thirunavukkarasu & Majed Abuseif & Mehdi Seyedmahmoudian & Saad Mekhilef & Alex Stojcevski & Hing-Wah Chau, 2023. "Simulation-Based Study on the Effect of Green Roofs on Summer Energy Performance in Melbourne," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-19, November.
    6. Valéry Masson & Colette Marchadier & Luc Adolphe & Rahim Aguejdad & P. Avner & Marc Bonhomme & Geneviève Bretagne & X. Briottet & Bruno Bueno & Cécile de Munck & O. Doukari & Stéphane Hallegatte & Jul, 2014. "Adapting cities to climate change: A systemic modelling approach," Post-Print hal-01136215, HAL.

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