IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v18y2004i2p89-110.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Sensitivity of the Red River Basin Flood Protection System to Climate Variability and Change

Author

Listed:
  • Slobodan Simonovic
  • Lanhai Li

Abstract

An original modeling framework for assessment of climate variation and change impacts on the performance of complex flood protection system has been implemented in the evaluation of the impact of climate variability and change on the reliability, vulnerability and resiliency of the Red River Basin flood protection system (Manitoba, Canada). The modeling framework allows for an evaluation of different climate change scenarios generated by the global climate models. Temperature and precipitation are used as the main factors affecting flood flow generation. System dynamics modeling approach proved to be of great value in the development of system performance assessment model. The most important impact of climate variability and change on hydrologic processes is reflected in the change of flood patterns: flood starting time, peak value and timing. The results show increase in the annual precipitation and the annual streamflow volume in the Red River basin under the future climate change scenarios. Most of the floods generated using three different climate models had an earlier starting time and peak time. The assessment of the performance of Red River flood protection system is based on the flood flows, the capacity of flood control structures and failure flow levels at different locations in the basin. In the Assiniboine River Basin, higher reliabilities at downstream locations are obtained indicating that Shellmouth reservoir plays an important role in reducing downstream flooding. However, a different trend was identified in the Red River Basin. The study results show that flood protection capacity of the Red River infrastructure is sufficient under low reliability criteria but may not be sufficient under high reliability criteria. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2004

Suggested Citation

  • Slobodan Simonovic & Lanhai Li, 2004. "Sensitivity of the Red River Basin Flood Protection System to Climate Variability and Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 18(2), pages 89-110, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:18:y:2004:i:2:p:89-110
    DOI: 10.1023/B:WARM.0000024702.40031.b2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1023/B:WARM.0000024702.40031.b2
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1023/B:WARM.0000024702.40031.b2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Slobodan Simonovic & Richard Carson, 2003. "Flooding in the Red River Basin – Lessons from Post Flood Activities," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 28(2), pages 345-365, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Guangyang Wu & Lanhai Li & Sajjad Ahmad & Xi Chen & Xiangliang Pan, 2013. "A Dynamic Model for Vulnerability Assessment of Regional Water Resources in Arid Areas: A Case Study of Bayingolin, China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(8), pages 3085-3101, June.
    2. Lanhai Li & Honggang Xu & Xi Chen & S. Simonovic, 2010. "Streamflow Forecast and Reservoir Operation Performance Assessment Under Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(1), pages 83-104, January.
    3. S. Rehana & P. Mujumdar, 2014. "Basin Scale Water Resources Systems Modeling Under Cascading Uncertainties," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(10), pages 3127-3142, August.
    4. Kaveh Madani & Miguel Mariño, 2009. "System Dynamics Analysis for Managing Iran’s Zayandeh-Rud River Basin," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(11), pages 2163-2187, September.
    5. Marie Minville & Stéphane Krau & François Brissette & Robert Leconte, 2010. "Behaviour and Performance of a Water Resource System in Québec (Canada) Under Adapted Operating Policies in a Climate Change Context," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(7), pages 1333-1352, May.
    6. Xiao-Bo Luan & Pu-Te Wu & Shi-Kun Sun & Xiao-Lei Li & Yu-Bao Wang & Xue-Rui Gao, 2018. "Impact of Land Use Change on Hydrologic Processes in a Large Plain Irrigation District," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(9), pages 3203-3217, July.
    7. Jew Das & Nanduri V. Umamahesh, 2016. "Downscaling Monsoon Rainfall over River Godavari Basin under Different Climate-Change Scenarios," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(15), pages 5575-5587, December.
    8. Alireza Gohari & Ali Mirchi & Kaveh Madani, 2017. "System Dynamics Evaluation of Climate Change Adaptation Strategies for Water Resources Management in Central Iran," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(5), pages 1413-1434, March.
    9. Jeffrey O’Hara & Konstantine Georgakakos, 2008. "Quantifying the Urban Water Supply Impacts of Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 22(10), pages 1477-1497, October.
    10. Hyung-Il Eum & Slobodan Simonovic, 2010. "Integrated Reservoir Management System for Adaptation to Climate Change: The Nakdong River Basin in Korea," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(13), pages 3397-3417, October.
    11. Elmira Hassanzadeh & Mahdi Zarghami & Yousef Hassanzadeh, 2012. "Determining the Main Factors in Declining the Urmia Lake Level by Using System Dynamics Modeling," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(1), pages 129-145, January.
    12. Farhad Yazdandoost & Sogol Moradian & Ardalan Izadi, 2020. "Evaluation of Water Sustainability under a Changing Climate in Zarrineh River Basin, Iran," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(15), pages 4831-4846, December.
    13. Slobodan P. Simonovic, 2017. "Bringing Future Climatic Change into Water Resources Management Practice Today," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(10), pages 2933-2950, August.
    14. Marie Minville & François Brissette & Stéphane Krau & Robert Leconte, 2009. "Adaptation to Climate Change in the Management of a Canadian Water-Resources System Exploited for Hydropower," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(14), pages 2965-2986, November.
    15. Yong-Ying Zhu & Hui-Cheng Zhou, 2009. "Rough Fuzzy Inference Model and its Application in Multi-factor Medium and Long-term Hydrological Forecast," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(3), pages 493-507, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chau, Vu Ngoc & Cassells, Sue M. & Holland, John, 2014. "Measuring direct losses to rice production from extreme flood events in Quang Nam province, Vietnam," 2014 Conference (58th), February 4-7, 2014, Port Macquarie, Australia 165813, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    2. Ryan Plummer & Steven Renzetti & Ryan Bullock & Maria de Lourdes Melo Zurita & Julia Baird & Diane Dupont & Timothy Smith & Dana Thomsen, 2018. "The roles of capitals in building capacity to address urban flooding in the shift to a new water management approach," Environment and Planning C, , vol. 36(6), pages 1068-1087, September.
    3. Vu Chau & Sue Cassells & John Holland, 2015. "Economic impact upon agricultural production from extreme flood events in Quang Nam, central Vietnam," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(2), pages 1747-1765, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:18:y:2004:i:2:p:89-110. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.