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Modelling Resilience of a Water Supply System under Climate Change and Population Growth Impacts

Author

Listed:
  • Pradeep Amarasinghe

    (Queensland University of Technology (QUT))

  • An Liu

    (Queensland University of Technology (QUT)
    Shenzhen University)

  • Prasanna Egodawatta

    (Queensland University of Technology (QUT))

  • Paul Barnes

    (Queensland University of Technology (QUT))

  • James McGree

    (Queensland University of Technology (QUT))

  • Ashantha Goonetilleke

    (Queensland University of Technology (QUT))

Abstract

Climate change impacts and increased demand due to population growth are among the most common disruptions or pressures that can undermine the service potential of a water supply system. Consequently, the successful management of a water supply system depends on an in-depth understanding of the resilience of the system to such pressures. This study developed a robust modelling approach to assess the resilience of a water supply system enabling the identification of critical trigger points at which the system would fail. The trigger points identified included maximum rainfall reduction percentage to maintain system functionality under increased demand and minimum initial storage beyond which the probability of failure increases rapidly. Additionally, a logistic regression model was developed for taking into consideration the cumulative effects of rainfall, demand and storage variations in order to predict the probability of failure of a water supply system. The study outcomes are expected to provide improved guidance to infrastructure system operators for enhancing the efficiency and reliability of water supply systems under threats posed by climate change and population growth impacts.

Suggested Citation

  • Pradeep Amarasinghe & An Liu & Prasanna Egodawatta & Paul Barnes & James McGree & Ashantha Goonetilleke, 2017. "Modelling Resilience of a Water Supply System under Climate Change and Population Growth Impacts," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(9), pages 2885-2898, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:31:y:2017:i:9:d:10.1007_s11269-017-1646-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-017-1646-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jeffrey O’Hara & Konstantine Georgakakos, 2008. "Quantifying the Urban Water Supply Impacts of Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 22(10), pages 1477-1497, October.
    2. Hosseini, Seyedmohsen & Barker, Kash & Ramirez-Marquez, Jose E., 2016. "A review of definitions and measures of system resilience," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 47-61.
    3. Michael Short & William Peirson & Gregory Peters & Ronald Cox, 2012. "Managing Adaptation of Urban Water Systems in a Changing Climate," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(7), pages 1953-1981, May.
    4. Feng, Y.Y. & Chen, S.Q. & Zhang, L.X., 2013. "System dynamics modeling for urban energy consumption and CO2 emissions: A case study of Beijing, China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 252(C), pages 44-52.
    5. Oz Sahin & Rodney Stewart & Fernanda Helfer, 2015. "Bridging the Water Supply–demand Gap in Australia: Coupling Water Demand Efficiency with Rain-independent Desalination Supply," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(2), pages 253-272, January.
    6. Debón, A. & Carrión, A. & Cabrera, E. & Solano, H., 2010. "Comparing risk of failure models in water supply networks using ROC curves," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 43-48.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ayyoob Sharifi, 2020. "Urban Resilience Assessment: Mapping Knowledge Structure and Trends," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-18, July.

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