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ScenaLand: a simple methodology for developing land use and management scenarios

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  • Amandine Valérie Pastor

    (LISAH, University Montpellier, INRAE, IRD, Institut Agro
    ITAP, Univ Montpellier, INRAE, Institut Agro
    Research Group for Environmental Lifecycle and Sustainability Assessment
    University of Lisbon)

  • Joao Pedro Nunes

    (University of Lisbon
    Wageningen University and Research)

  • Rossano Ciampalini

    (LISAH, University Montpellier, INRAE, IRD, Institut Agro
    University of Florence)

  • Haithem Bahri

    (University of Carthage, INRGREF)

  • Mohamed Annabi

    (University of Carthage, INRAT)

  • Mohamed Chikhaoui

    (Institut Agronomique Et Vétérinaire Hassan II)

  • Armand Crabit

    (Univ Montpellier, CIRAD, INRAE, Institut Agro, IRD)

  • Stéphane Follain

    (Univ. Bourgogne Franche-Comté)

  • Jan Jacob Keizer

    (University of Aveiro)

  • Jérôme Latron

    (Spanish Research Council (CSIC))

  • Feliciana Licciardello

    (University of Catania)

  • Laurène Marien

    (Univ Montpellier, CIRAD, INRAE, Institut Agro, IRD)

  • Insaf Mekki

    (University of Carthage, INRGREF)

  • Mariano Moreno de las Heras

    (Spanish Research Council (CSIC)
    King Juan Carlos University
    University of Barcelona)

  • Antonio J. Molina

    (Spanish Research Council (CSIC)
    University of Barcelona
    Polytechnical University of Valencia)

  • Mustapha Naimi

    (Institut Agronomique Et Vétérinaire Hassan II)

  • Mohamed Sabir

    (Ecole Nationale Forestière d’Ingénieurs (ENFI))

  • Sandra Valente

    (University of Aveiro)

  • Damien Raclot

    (LISAH, University Montpellier, INRAE, IRD, Institut Agro)

Abstract

Scenarios serve science by testing the sensitivity of a system and/or society to adapt to the future. In this study, we present a new land use scenario methodology called ScenaLand. This methodology aims to develop plausible and contrasting land use and management (LUM) scenarios, useful to explore how LUM (e.g. soil and water conservation techniques) may affect ecosystem services under global change in a wide range of environments. ScenaLand is a method for constructing narrative and spatially explicit land use scenarios that are useful for end-users and impact modellers. This method is innovative because it merges literature and expert knowledge, and its low data requirement makes it easy to be implemented in the context of inter-site comparison, including global change projections. ScenaLand was developed and tested on six different Mediterranean agroecological and socioeconomic contexts during the MASCC research project (Mediterranean agricultural soil conservation under global change). The method first highlights the socioeconomic trends of each study site including emerging trends such as new government laws, LUM techniques through a qualitative survey addressed to local experts. Then, the method includes a ranking of driving factors, a matrix about land use evolution, and soil and water conservation techniques. ScenaLand also includes a framework to develop narratives along with two priority axes (contextualized to environmental protection vs. land productivity in this study). In the context of this research project, four contrasting scenarios are proposed: S1 (business-as-usual), S2 (market-oriented), S3 (environmental protection), and S4 (sustainable). Land use maps are then built with the creation of LUM allocation rules based on agroecological zoning. ScenaLand resulted in a robust and easy method to apply with the creation of 24 contrasted scenarios. These scenarios come not only with narratives but also with spatially explicit maps that are potentially used by impact modellers and other end-users. The last part of our study discusses the way the method can be implemented including a comparison between sites and the possibilities to implement ScenaLand in other contexts.

Suggested Citation

  • Amandine Valérie Pastor & Joao Pedro Nunes & Rossano Ciampalini & Haithem Bahri & Mohamed Annabi & Mohamed Chikhaoui & Armand Crabit & Stéphane Follain & Jan Jacob Keizer & Jérôme Latron & Feliciana L, 2022. "ScenaLand: a simple methodology for developing land use and management scenarios," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 27(8), pages 1-29, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:masfgc:v:27:y:2022:i:8:d:10.1007_s11027-022-10024-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s11027-022-10024-7
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