IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v157y2019i3d10.1007_s10584-019-02570-y.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Increasing risks of apple tree frost damage under climate change

Author

Listed:
  • Peter Pfleiderer

    (Climate Analytics
    IRI THESys, Humboldt Universität Berlin
    Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

  • Inga Menke

    (Climate Analytics)

  • Carl-Friedrich Schleussner

    (Climate Analytics
    IRI THESys, Humboldt Universität Berlin
    Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

Abstract

Anthropogenic climate change is affecting agriculture and crop production. The responses of horticultural and agricultural systems to changing climatic conditions can be non-linear and at times counter-intuitive. Depending on the characteristics of the system, the actual impact can arise as a result of a combination of climate hazards or compound events. Here, we show that compound events can lead to increased risk of frost damage for apple fruit trees in Germany in a 2 °C warmer world of up to 10% relative to present day. Although the absolute number of frost days is declining, warmer winters also lead to earlier blossom of fruit trees, which in turn can lead to regionally dependent increased risks of the occurrence of frost days after apple blossom. In southern Germany, warmer winters may also lead to an increase in years in which apple yield is negatively affected by a lack of sufficient amount of cold days to trigger the seasonal response of the trees. Our results show how cropping system responses to seasonal climate can lead to unexpected effects of increased risk of frost damage as a result of warmer winters. An improved understanding of ecosystem responses to changes in climate signals is important to fully assess the impacts of climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Pfleiderer & Inga Menke & Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, 2019. "Increasing risks of apple tree frost damage under climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 157(3), pages 515-525, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:157:y:2019:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-019-02570-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-019-02570-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-019-02570-y
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-019-02570-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David W. Wolfe & Arthur T. DeGaetano & Gregory M. Peck & Mary Carey & Lewis H. Ziska & John Lea-Cox & Armen R. Kemanian & Michael P. Hoffmann & David Y. Hollinger, 2018. "Unique challenges and opportunities for northeastern US crop production in a changing climate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(1), pages 231-245, January.
    2. Holger Hoffmann & Thomas Rath, 2013. "Future Bloom and Blossom Frost Risk for Malus domestica Considering Climate Model and Impact Model Uncertainties," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(10), pages 1-13, October.
    3. Qiang Liu & Shilong Piao & Ivan A. Janssens & Yongshuo Fu & Shushi Peng & Xu Lian & Philippe Ciais & Ranga B. Myneni & Josep Peñuelas & Tao Wang, 2018. "Extension of the growing season increases vegetation exposure to frost," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-8, December.
    4. Yann Vitasse & Martine Rebetez, 2018. "Unprecedented risk of spring frost damage in Switzerland and Germany in 2017," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 149(2), pages 233-246, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Natalia Matłok & Małgorzata Szostek & Maciej Balawejder, 2024. "Soil Recycling of Waste Biomass in the Production of Malus domestica Fruit Tree Seedlings," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-13, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hrozencik, Aaron & Aillery, Marcel, 2021. "Trends in U.S. Irrigated Agriculture: Increasing Resilience Under Water Supply Scarcity," Economic Information Bulletin 327359, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    2. Thorn, Alexandra M. & Baker, Michael J. & Peters, Christian J., 2021. "Estimating biological capacity for grass-finished ruminant meat production in New England and New York," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    3. Hrozencik, Aaron & Aillery, Marcel, 2021. "Trends in U.S. Irrigated Agriculture: Increasing Resilience Under Water Supply Scarcity," USDA Miscellaneous 316792, United States Department of Agriculture.
    4. Christopher J. Picard & Jonathan M. Winter & Charlotte Cockburn & Janel Hanrahan & Natalie G. Teale & Patrick J. Clemins & Brian Beckage, 2023. "Twenty-first century increases in total and extreme precipitation across the Northeastern USA," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(6), pages 1-26, June.
    5. David W. Wolfe & Arthur T. DeGaetano & Gregory M. Peck & Mary Carey & Lewis H. Ziska & John Lea-Cox & Armen R. Kemanian & Michael P. Hoffmann & David Y. Hollinger, 2018. "Unique challenges and opportunities for northeastern US crop production in a changing climate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(1), pages 231-245, January.
    6. Abelardo García-Martín & Luis L. Paniagua & Francisco J. Moral & Francisco J. Rebollo & María A. Rozas, 2021. "Spatiotemporal Analysis of the Frost Regime in the Iberian Peninsula in the Context of Climate Change (1975–2018)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-22, July.
    7. Haoyu Qiu & Qin Yan & Yuchuan Yang & Xu Huang & Jinmei Wang & Jiajie Luo & Lang Peng & Ge Bai & Liuyue Zhang & Rui Zhang & Yongshuo H. Fu & Chaoyang Wu & Josep Peñuelas & Lei Chen, 2024. "Flowering in the Northern Hemisphere is delayed by frost after leaf-out," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    8. Czesław Koźmiński & Jadwiga Nidzgorska-Lencewicz & Agnieszka Mąkosza & Bożena Michalska, 2021. "Ground Frosts in Poland in the Growing Season," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-18, June.
    9. Funes, Inmaculada & Aranda, Xavier & Biel, Carmen & Carbó, Joaquim & Camps, Francesc & Molina, Antonio J. & Herralde, Felicidad de & Grau, Beatriz & Savé, Robert, 2016. "Future climate change impacts on apple flowering date in a Mediterranean subbasin," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 164(P1), pages 19-27.
    10. Robert Finger & David Wüpper & Chloe McCallum, 2023. "The (in)stability of farmer risk preferences," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(1), pages 155-167, February.
    11. Yoshimitsu Masaki, 2020. "Future risk of frost on apple trees in Japan," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 159(3), pages 407-422, April.
    12. Castaño-Sánchez, José P. & Karsten, Heather D. & Rotz, C. Alan, 2022. "Double cropping and manure management mitigate the environmental impact of a dairy farm under present and future climate," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    13. Robert Kennedy Smith & Der-Chen Chang, 2020. "The utilization of a recursive algorithm to determine trends of soil moisture deficits in the Mid-Atlantic United States," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(1), pages 217-235, November.
    14. Guogang Wang & Shengnan Huang & Yongxiang Zhang & Sicheng Zhao & Chengji Han, 2022. "How Has Climate Change Driven the Evolution of Rice Distribution in China?," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(23), pages 1-17, December.
    15. Ryan Ruggiero & Donald Ross & Joshua W. Faulkner, 2022. "Tile Drainage Flow Partitioning and Phosphorus Export in Vermont USA," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-18, January.
    16. S. K. Birthisel & B. A. Eastman & A. R. Soucy & M. Paul & R. S. Clements & A. White & M. P. Acquafredda & W. Errickson & L-H. Zhu & M. C. Allen & S. A. Mills & G. Dimmig & K. M. Dittmer, 2020. "Convergence, continuity, and community: a framework for enabling emerging leaders to build climate solutions in agriculture, forestry, and aquaculture," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(4), pages 2181-2195, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:157:y:2019:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-019-02570-y. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.