IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v19y2022i23p16297-d994319.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How Has Climate Change Driven the Evolution of Rice Distribution in China?

Author

Listed:
  • Guogang Wang

    (Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Chinses Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100089, China)

  • Shengnan Huang

    (Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Chinses Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100089, China)

  • Yongxiang Zhang

    (School of Economics and Management, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100089, China)

  • Sicheng Zhao

    (Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Chinses Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100089, China)

  • Chengji Han

    (State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, China Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100089, China)

Abstract

Estimating the impact of climate change risks on rice distribution is one of the most important elements of climate risk management. This paper is based on the GEE (Google Earth Engine) platform and multi-source remote sensing data; the authors quantitatively extracted rice production distribution data in China from 1990 to 2019, analysed the evolution pattern of rice distribution and clusters and explored the driving effects between climatic and environmental conditions on the evolution of rice production distribution using the non-parametric quantile regression model. The results show that: The spatial variation of rice distribution is significant, mainly concentrated in the northeast, south and southwest regions of China; the distribution of rice in the northeast is expanding, while the distribution of rice in the south is extending northward, showing a spatial evolution trend of “north rising and south retreating”. The positive effect of precipitation on the spatial distribution of rice has a significant threshold. This shows that when precipitation is greater than 800 mm, there is a significant positive effect on the spatial distribution of rice production, and this effect will increase with precipitation increases. Climate change may lead to a continuous northward shift in the extent of rice production, especially extending to the northwest of China. This paper’s results will help implement more spatially targeted climate change adaptation measures for rice to cope with the changes in food production distribution caused by climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Guogang Wang & Shengnan Huang & Yongxiang Zhang & Sicheng Zhao & Chengji Han, 2022. "How Has Climate Change Driven the Evolution of Rice Distribution in China?," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(23), pages 1-17, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:23:p:16297-:d:994319
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/19/23/16297/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/19/23/16297/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David W. Wolfe & Arthur T. DeGaetano & Gregory M. Peck & Mary Carey & Lewis H. Ziska & John Lea-Cox & Armen R. Kemanian & Michael P. Hoffmann & David Y. Hollinger, 2018. "Unique challenges and opportunities for northeastern US crop production in a changing climate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(1), pages 231-245, January.
    2. Ruiqing Miao & Madhu Khanna & Haixiao Huang, 2016. "Responsiveness of Crop Yield and Acreage to Prices and Climate," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 98(1), pages 191-211.
    3. Wenjian He & Yiyang Liu & Huaping Sun & Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary, 2020. "How Does Climate Change Affect Rice Yield in China?," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-16, September.
    4. Ross Gillard & Andrew Gouldson & Jouni Paavola & James Van Alstine, 2016. "Transformational responses to climate change: beyond a systems perspective of social change in mitigation and adaptation," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 7(2), pages 251-265, March.
    5. Matteo Fasiolo & Simon N. Wood & Margaux Zaffran & Raphaël Nedellec & Yannig Goude, 2021. "Fast Calibrated Additive Quantile Regression," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 116(535), pages 1402-1412, July.
    6. Vera Shanshan Lin & Yuan Qin & Tianyu Ying & Shujie Shen & Guangming Lyu, 2022. "Night-time economy vitality index: Framework and evidence," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(3), pages 665-691, May.
    7. Qichang Xie & Qiankun Sun & Junxian Liu, 2020. "Local weighted composite quantile estimation and smoothing parameter selection for nonparametric derivative function," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(3), pages 215-233, March.
    8. Jean L. Steiner & David D. Briske & David P. Brown & Caitlin M. Rottler, 2018. "Vulnerability of Southern Plains agriculture to climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(1), pages 201-218, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chen, Bowen & Dennis, Elliott J. & Featherstone, Allen, 2022. "Weather Impacts the Agricultural Production Efficiency of Wheat: The Emerging Role of Precipitation Shocks," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 47(3), September.
    2. Bissan Ghaddar & Ignacio Gómez-Casares & Julio González-Díaz & Brais González-Rodríguez & Beatriz Pateiro-López & Sofía Rodríguez-Ballesteros, 2023. "Learning for Spatial Branching: An Algorithm Selection Approach," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 35(5), pages 1024-1043, September.
    3. Du, Xiaoxue & Ye, Fanglin, 2018. "Adaptation to Climate Change: the Role of Crop Insurance," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274373, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Ciska Ulug & Lummina Horlings & Elen-Maarja Trell, 2021. "Collective Identity Supporting Sustainability Transformations in Ecovillage Communities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-18, July.
    5. Hrozencik, Aaron & Aillery, Marcel, 2021. "Trends in U.S. Irrigated Agriculture: Increasing Resilience Under Water Supply Scarcity," Economic Information Bulletin 327359, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    6. Xiaoguang Chen & Madhu Khanna & Lu Yang, 2022. "The impacts of temperature on Chinese food processing firms," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 66(2), pages 256-279, April.
    7. Lisi, Francesco & Grossi, Luigi & Quaglia, Federico, 2023. "Evaluation of Cost-at-Risk related to the procurement of resources in the ancillary services market. The case of the Italian electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    8. Lee, Seunghyun, 2022. "Effects of Wet Spring on Prevented Planting," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322348, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    9. Thomas, Timothy S., 2015. "US maize data reveals adaptation to heat and water stress:," IFPRI discussion papers 1485, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    10. repec:ags:aaea22:335522 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Jerome Dumortier & Miguel Carriquiry & Amani Elobeid, 2021. "Impact of climate change on global agricultural markets under different shared socioeconomic pathways," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(6), pages 963-984, November.
    12. Cai, Qingyin & Çakır, Metin & Beatty, Timothy & Park, Timothy A., 2022. "Drought and the Specialty Crops Production in California," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322530, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    13. Thorn, Alexandra M. & Baker, Michael J. & Peters, Christian J., 2021. "Estimating biological capacity for grass-finished ruminant meat production in New England and New York," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    14. Shon M Ferguson & Johan Gars, 2020. "Measuring the impact of agricultural production shocks on international trade flows," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 47(3), pages 1094-1132.
    15. Peter Pfleiderer & Inga Menke & Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, 2019. "Increasing risks of apple tree frost damage under climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 157(3), pages 515-525, December.
    16. Le Zhang & Xueyan Li & Yanlong Guo, 2024. "Research on the Influencing Factors of Spatial Vitality of Night Parks Based on AHP–Entropy Weights," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-20, June.
    17. Konstantinos Metaxoglou & Aaron Smith, 2020. "Productivity Spillovers From Pollution Reduction: Reducing Coal Use Increases Crop Yields," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(1), pages 259-280, January.
    18. Yu, Chengzheng & Miao, Ruiqing & Khanna, Madhu, 2021. "Maladaptation of U.S. Corn and Soybean Yields to a Changing Climate," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315037, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    19. Gouel, Christophe & Laborde, David, 2021. "The crucial role of domestic and international market-mediated adaptation to climate change," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    20. Wang, Teng & Yi, Fujin & Liu, Huilin & Wu, Ximing & Zhong, Funing, 2021. "Can Agricultural Mechanization Have a Mitigation Effect on China's Yield Variability?," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315098, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    21. Prabhu Pingali & Anaka Aiyar & Mathew Abraham & Andaleeb Rahman, 2019. "Transforming Food Systems for a Rising India," Palgrave Studies in Agricultural Economics and Food Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-3-030-14409-8.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:23:p:16297-:d:994319. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.