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Future climate change impacts on apple flowering date in a Mediterranean subbasin

Author

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  • Funes, Inmaculada
  • Aranda, Xavier
  • Biel, Carmen
  • Carbó, Joaquim
  • Camps, Francesc
  • Molina, Antonio J.
  • Herralde, Felicidad de
  • Grau, Beatriz
  • Savé, Robert

Abstract

Chilling temperatures are important in apple and other fruit production because they are needed to break full dormancy, which is a prerequisite for effective and synchronous bud-break and flowering. Temperature increase related to climate change could lead to inadequate chilling in certain areas, which could affect the suitability for some species or cultivars to survive or yield in that location. The aim of this study was to estimate how climate change could affect flowering date and, consequently, feasibility of the most significant apple cultivars in the lower Fluvià subbasin (correspondent to the Protected Geographical Indication “Poma de Girona”). The estimations are based on a chilling and forcing requirements approach for each apple cultivar in this region, through a statistical analysis. The chilling-forcing sequential model, together with meteorological projections based on two climate change scenarios (B1 and A2), were used to estimate apple flowering dates along the 21st Century. Results show, in general, that apple cultivars could suffer delays on flowering date since the mid century and they could present serious disorders as a consequence of insufficient chilling in the long term in A2 scenario, which could affect crop feasibility in the region.

Suggested Citation

  • Funes, Inmaculada & Aranda, Xavier & Biel, Carmen & Carbó, Joaquim & Camps, Francesc & Molina, Antonio J. & Herralde, Felicidad de & Grau, Beatriz & Savé, Robert, 2016. "Future climate change impacts on apple flowering date in a Mediterranean subbasin," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 164(P1), pages 19-27.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:164:y:2016:i:p1:p:19-27
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2015.06.013
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    1. Rodríguez, Alfredo & Pérez-López, David & Centeno, Ana & Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita, 2021. "Viability of temperate fruit tree varieties in Spain under climate change according to chilling accumulation," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    2. Hanan Ali Alrteimei & Zulfa Hanan Ash’aari & Farrah Melissa Muharram, 2022. "Last Decade Assessment of the Impacts of Regional Climate Change on Crop Yield Variations in the Mediterranean Region," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-21, October.
    3. Oduor, Brian Omondi & Campo-Bescós, Miguel Ángel & Lana-Renault, Noemí & Casalí, Javier, 2023. "Effects of climate change on streamflow and nitrate pollution in an agricultural Mediterranean watershed in Northern Spain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    4. Lu, Yongquan & Liu, Guilin & Xian, Yuyang & Tang, Jiaqi & Zhong, Liming, 2024. "Climate change brings both opportunities and challenges to rural revitalization in China: Evidence from apple geographical indication predictions," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    5. Koffi Djaman & Komlan Koudahe & Murali Darapuneni & Suat Irmak, 2021. "Chilling and Heat Accumulation of Fruit and Nut Trees and Flower Bud Vulnerability to Early Spring Low Temperatures in New Mexico: Meteorological Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-23, February.
    6. Funes, I. & Savé, R. & de Herralde, F. & Biel, C. & Pla, E. & Pascual, D. & Zabalza, J. & Cantos, G. & Borràs, G. & Vayreda, J. & Aranda, X., 2021. "Modeling impacts of climate change on the water needs and growing cycle of crops in three Mediterranean basins," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 249(C).

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