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Unique challenges and opportunities for northeastern US crop production in a changing climate

Author

Listed:
  • David W. Wolfe

    (Cornell University)

  • Arthur T. DeGaetano

    (Cornell University)

  • Gregory M. Peck

    (Cornell University)

  • Mary Carey

    (United States Department of Agriculture)

  • Lewis H. Ziska

    (United States Department of Agriculture)

  • John Lea-Cox

    (University of Maryland)

  • Armen R. Kemanian

    (Pennsylvania State University)

  • Michael P. Hoffmann

    (Cornell University)

  • David Y. Hollinger

    (United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service)

Abstract

Climate change may both exacerbate the vulnerabilities and open up new opportunities for farming in the Northeastern USA. Among the opportunities are double-cropping and new crop options that may come with warmer temperatures and a longer frost-free period. However, prolonged periods of spring rains in recent years have delayed planting and offset the potentially beneficial longer frost-free period. Water management will be a serious challenge for Northeast farmers in the future, with projections for increased frequency of heavy rainfall events, as well as projections for more frequent summer water deficits than this historically humid region has experienced in the past. Adaptations to increase resilience to such changes include expanded irrigation capacity, modernized water monitoring and irrigation scheduling, farm drainage systems that collect excess rain into ponds for use as a water source during dry periods, and improved soil water holding capacity and drainage. Among the greatest vulnerabilities over the next several decades for the economically important perennial fruit crop industry of the region is an extended period of spring frost risk associated with warmer winter and early spring temperatures. Improved real-time frost warning systems, careful site selection for new plantings, and use of misting, wind machine, or other frost protection measures will be important adaptation strategies. Increased weed and pest pressure associated with longer growing seasons and warmer winters is another increasingly important challenge. Pro-active development of non-chemical control strategies, improved regional monitoring, and rapid-response plans for targeted control of invasive weeds and pests will be necessary.

Suggested Citation

  • David W. Wolfe & Arthur T. DeGaetano & Gregory M. Peck & Mary Carey & Lewis H. Ziska & John Lea-Cox & Armen R. Kemanian & Michael P. Hoffmann & David Y. Hollinger, 2018. "Unique challenges and opportunities for northeastern US crop production in a changing climate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(1), pages 231-245, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:146:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-017-2109-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2109-7
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    2. Hrozencik, Aaron & Aillery, Marcel, 2021. "Trends in U.S. Irrigated Agriculture: Increasing Resilience Under Water Supply Scarcity," USDA Miscellaneous 316792, United States Department of Agriculture.
    3. Ryan Ruggiero & Donald Ross & Joshua W. Faulkner, 2022. "Tile Drainage Flow Partitioning and Phosphorus Export in Vermont USA," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-18, January.
    4. Robert Kennedy Smith & Der-Chen Chang, 2020. "The utilization of a recursive algorithm to determine trends of soil moisture deficits in the Mid-Atlantic United States," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(1), pages 217-235, November.
    5. Hrozencik, Aaron & Aillery, Marcel, 2021. "Trends in U.S. Irrigated Agriculture: Increasing Resilience Under Water Supply Scarcity," Economic Information Bulletin 327359, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    6. Guogang Wang & Shengnan Huang & Yongxiang Zhang & Sicheng Zhao & Chengji Han, 2022. "How Has Climate Change Driven the Evolution of Rice Distribution in China?," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(23), pages 1-17, December.
    7. S. K. Birthisel & B. A. Eastman & A. R. Soucy & M. Paul & R. S. Clements & A. White & M. P. Acquafredda & W. Errickson & L-H. Zhu & M. C. Allen & S. A. Mills & G. Dimmig & K. M. Dittmer, 2020. "Convergence, continuity, and community: a framework for enabling emerging leaders to build climate solutions in agriculture, forestry, and aquaculture," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(4), pages 2181-2195, October.
    8. Castaño-Sánchez, José P. & Karsten, Heather D. & Rotz, C. Alan, 2022. "Double cropping and manure management mitigate the environmental impact of a dairy farm under present and future climate," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    9. Thorn, Alexandra M. & Baker, Michael J. & Peters, Christian J., 2021. "Estimating biological capacity for grass-finished ruminant meat production in New England and New York," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    10. Peter Pfleiderer & Inga Menke & Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, 2019. "Increasing risks of apple tree frost damage under climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 157(3), pages 515-525, December.
    11. Christopher J. Picard & Jonathan M. Winter & Charlotte Cockburn & Janel Hanrahan & Natalie G. Teale & Patrick J. Clemins & Brian Beckage, 2023. "Twenty-first century increases in total and extreme precipitation across the Northeastern USA," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(6), pages 1-26, June.

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