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Future Bloom and Blossom Frost Risk for Malus domestica Considering Climate Model and Impact Model Uncertainties

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  • Holger Hoffmann
  • Thomas Rath

Abstract

The future bloom and risk of blossom frosts for Malus domestica were projected using regional climate realizations and phenological ( = impact) models. As climate impact projections are susceptible to uncertainties of climate and impact models and model concatenation, the significant horizon of the climate impact signal was analyzed by applying 7 impact models, including two new developments, on 13 climate realizations of the IPCC emission scenario A1B. Advancement of phenophases and a decrease in blossom frost risk for Lower Saxony (Germany) for early and late ripeners was determined by six out of seven phenological models. Single model/single grid point time series of bloom showed significant trends by 2021–2050 compared to 1971–2000, whereas the joint signal of all climate and impact models did not stabilize until 2043. Regarding blossom frost risk, joint projection variability exceeded the projected signal. Thus, blossom frost risk cannot be stated to be lower by the end of the 21st century despite a negative trend. As a consequence it is however unlikely to increase. Uncertainty of temperature, blooming date and blossom frost risk projection reached a minimum at 2078–2087. The projected phenophases advanced by 5.5 d K−1, showing partial compensation of delayed fulfillment of the winter chill requirement and faster completion of the following forcing phase in spring. Finally, phenological model performance was improved by considering the length of day.

Suggested Citation

  • Holger Hoffmann & Thomas Rath, 2013. "Future Bloom and Blossom Frost Risk for Malus domestica Considering Climate Model and Impact Model Uncertainties," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(10), pages 1-13, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0075033
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0075033
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    Cited by:

    1. Yoshimitsu Masaki, 2020. "Future risk of frost on apple trees in Japan," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 159(3), pages 407-422, April.
    2. David W. Wolfe & Arthur T. DeGaetano & Gregory M. Peck & Mary Carey & Lewis H. Ziska & John Lea-Cox & Armen R. Kemanian & Michael P. Hoffmann & David Y. Hollinger, 2018. "Unique challenges and opportunities for northeastern US crop production in a changing climate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(1), pages 231-245, January.
    3. Funes, Inmaculada & Aranda, Xavier & Biel, Carmen & Carbó, Joaquim & Camps, Francesc & Molina, Antonio J. & Herralde, Felicidad de & Grau, Beatriz & Savé, Robert, 2016. "Future climate change impacts on apple flowering date in a Mediterranean subbasin," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 164(P1), pages 19-27.
    4. Peter Pfleiderer & Inga Menke & Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, 2019. "Increasing risks of apple tree frost damage under climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 157(3), pages 515-525, December.

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