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Unprecedented risk of spring frost damage in Switzerland and Germany in 2017

Author

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  • Yann Vitasse

    (University of Neuchatel
    WSL Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research)

  • Martine Rebetez

    (University of Neuchatel
    WSL Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research)

Abstract

Spring frosts are feared by farmers, fruit growers, and wine growers as they can cause significant damage to crops when they occur during the development of the plants. In the second half of April 2017, following a very warm period that had caused premature vegetation growth, a cold air mass from the Arctic penetrated central and western Europe, causing severe damage to natural and cultivated vegetation over broad areas. Here, we analyze how exceptional this event was in Switzerland and Germany in relation to the accumulated growing degree days (GDD), used as a proxy for plant phenology advancement. Although this damaging frost was not the latest on record in terms of calendar days, our results show that it was, in some regions, unprecedented in relation to the accumulated warmth during the preceding period, at least since the beginning of instrumental temperature records (1864). Our results also highlight how global warming has considerably increased the number of days with mean temperature above 5 °C in late winter and early spring, especially since 1970 (+ 16.8 ± 4.7 °C days decade−1). However, in spite of earlier spring phenology due to climate warming, our results suggest that the risk of damaging frost events to vegetation has remained unchanged over the last 150 years in lowlands of Switzerland and Germany, due to the concurring earlier occurrence of the last potentially damaging frosts (about − 20 days since 1864). Our analyses reveal therefore that the April 2017 damaging frost was a true outlier in terms of risk of frost damage to plants.

Suggested Citation

  • Yann Vitasse & Martine Rebetez, 2018. "Unprecedented risk of spring frost damage in Switzerland and Germany in 2017," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 149(2), pages 233-246, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:149:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s10584-018-2234-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-018-2234-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wang, Enli & Engel, Thomas, 1998. "Simulation of phenological development of wheat crops," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 1-24, September.
    2. Erica Kistner & Olivia Kellner & Jeffrey Andresen & Dennis Todey & Lois Wright Morton, 2018. "Vulnerability of specialty crops to short-term climatic variability and adaptation strategies in the Midwestern USA," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(1), pages 145-158, January.
    3. Yongshuo H. Fu & Hongfang Zhao & Shilong Piao & Marc Peaucelle & Shushi Peng & Guiyun Zhou & Philippe Ciais & Mengtian Huang & Annette Menzel & Josep Peñuelas & Yang Song & Yann Vitasse & Zhenzhong Ze, 2015. "Declining global warming effects on the phenology of spring leaf unfolding," Nature, Nature, vol. 526(7571), pages 104-107, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Czesław Koźmiński & Jadwiga Nidzgorska-Lencewicz & Agnieszka Mąkosza & Bożena Michalska, 2021. "Ground Frosts in Poland in the Growing Season," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-18, June.
    2. Robert Finger & David Wüpper & Chloe McCallum, 2023. "The (in)stability of farmer risk preferences," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(1), pages 155-167, February.
    3. Peter Pfleiderer & Inga Menke & Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, 2019. "Increasing risks of apple tree frost damage under climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 157(3), pages 515-525, December.

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