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Estimating the Impact of Avian Flu on International Tourism Demand Using Panel Data

Author

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  • Hsiao-I Kuo

    (Department of Senior Citizen Service Management, Chaoyang University of Technology, Taiwan)

  • Chia-Lin Chang
  • Bing-Wen Huang
  • Chi-Chung Chen
  • Michael McAleer

    (Econometric Institute, Erasmus University, Rotterdam, The Netherlands and Department of Applied Economics, National Chung Hsing University, Taichung, Taiwan)

Abstract

This paper investigates the impacts of avian flu on global and Asian tourism using panel data procedures. Both static and dynamic fixed effects panel data models are adopted to estimate the impacts of this infectious disease. The empirical results from static and dynamic fixed effects panel data models are consistent and indicate that the number of affected poultry outbreaks has significant impacts on the international tourism of global and Asian affected countries. The high mortality rate among humans, the potential of a global flu pandemic and some media frenzy with hype and speculation might adversely affect the images of these infected destinations as a safe tourist destination. Moreover, it was found that the average damage to Asian tourism was more serious, which might have been induced by an ineffective suppression in numerous Asian infected countries. In addition, Asia was the earliest affected region and the area infected most seriously by avian flu, both in humans and in poultry. Since the potential risks and damage arising from avian flu and the subsequent pandemic influenza are much greater than for previous diseases, the need to take necessary precautions in the event of an outbreak of avian flu and pandemic influenza warrants further attention and action in modelling and managing international tourism demand and risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Hsiao-I Kuo & Chia-Lin Chang & Bing-Wen Huang & Chi-Chung Chen & Michael McAleer, 2009. "Estimating the Impact of Avian Flu on International Tourism Demand Using Panel Data," Tourism Economics, , vol. 15(3), pages 501-511, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:15:y:2009:i:3:p:501-511
    DOI: 10.5367/000000009789036611
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Chia-Lin Chang & Thanchanok Khamkaew & Michael McAleer, 2010. "Estimating Price Effects in an Almost Ideal Demand Model of Outbound Thai Tourism to East Asia," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-735, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    3. Pham, Tien Duc & Dwyer, Larry & Su, Jen-Je & Ngo, Tramy, 2021. "COVID-19 impacts of inbound tourism on Australian economy," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    4. Okuyama, Tadahiro, 2018. "Analysis of optimal timing of tourism demand recovery policies from natural disaster using the contingent behavior method," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 37-54.
    5. Chih-Hai Yang & Hsun-Yu Lin, 2014. "Revisiting the Relationship between World Heritage Sites and Tourism," Tourism Economics, , vol. 20(1), pages 73-86, February.
    6. Yap, Ghialy & Allen, David, 2011. "Investigating other leading indicators influencing Australian domestic tourism demand," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 81(7), pages 1365-1374.
    7. João-Pedro Ferreira & Christa D. Court & Estefania Basurto-Cedeño & Lori Pennington-Gray, 2024. "Using the 2016 Zika outbreak to estimate the potential tourism impacts of a Chikungunya event in Florida," Tourism Economics, , vol. 30(4), pages 1062-1080, June.
    8. Marija Bratić & Aleksandar Radivojević & Nenad Stojiljković & Olivera Simović & Emil Juvan & Miha Lesjak & Eva Podovšovnik, 2021. "Should I Stay or Should I Go? Tourists’ COVID-19 Risk Perception and Vacation Behavior Shift," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-19, March.
    9. Seetaram, Neelu & Petit, Sylvain, 2012. "Panel data analysis in Tourism Research," MPRA Paper 75086, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Asai, Manabu & Caporin, Massimiliano & McAleer, Michael, 2015. "Forecasting Value-at-Risk using block structure multivariate stochastic volatility models," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 40-50.
    11. Bao-Linh Tran & Chi-Chung Chen & Wei-Chun Tseng & Shu-Yi Liao, 2020. "Tourism under the Early Phase of COVID-19 in Four APEC Economies: An Estimation with Special Focus on SARS Experiences," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(20), pages 1-13, October.
    12. Ali Asgary & Ali Ihsan Ozdemir, 2020. "Global risks and tourism industry in Turkey," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 54(5), pages 1513-1536, December.
    13. Xi Wu & Adam Blake, 2023. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Crisis on Air Travel Demand: Some Evidence From China," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(1), pages 21582440231, January.
    14. Zhang, Ke & Hou, Yuansi & Li, Gang, 2020. "Threat of infectious disease during an outbreak: Influence on tourists' emotional responses to disadvantaged price inequality," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    15. Martín Cicowiez & Natalia Porto & Manuela Cerimelo, 2024. "Short- and long-term effects of domestic tourism promotion in Argentina after COVID-19," Tourism Economics, , vol. 30(7), pages 1880-1899, November.
    16. Jose I Castillo-Manzano & Mercedes Castro-Nuño & Lourdes Lopez-Valpuesta & à lvaro Zarzoso, 2021. "Quality versus quantity: An assessment of the impact of Michelin-starred restaurants on tourism in Spain," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(5), pages 1166-1174, August.
    17. J. James Reade & Carl Singleton, 2020. "Demand for Public Events in the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Case Study of European Football," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2020-09, Department of Economics, University of Reading, revised 01 Oct 2020.
    18. Bilal & Adeel Nasir & Umar Farooq & Muhammad Farhan Bashir, 2024. "Stock returns, government response strategies, and daily new case bursts during COVID‐19: A cross‐country perspective," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 465-485, January.
    19. Peng Yang & Haiyan Song & Long Wen & Han Liu, 2024. "Modeling and forecasting listed tourism firms’ risk in China using a trend asymmetric GARCH-MIDAS model," Tourism Economics, , vol. 30(6), pages 1404-1422, September.
    20. Gian Maria Campedelli & Alberto Aziani & Serena Favarin, 2020. "Exploring the Effects of COVID-19 Containment Policies on Crime: An Empirical Analysis of the Short-term Aftermath in Los Angeles," Papers 2003.11021, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2020.
    21. Izzeldin, Marwan & Muradoğlu, Yaz Gülnur & Pappas, Vasileios & Sivaprasad, Sheeja, 2021. "The impact of Covid-19 on G7 stock markets volatility: Evidence from a ST-HAR model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    22. Martin Falk & Eva Hagsten & Xiang Lin, 2023. "Uneven domestic tourism demand in times of pandemic," Tourism Economics, , vol. 29(3), pages 596-611, May.
    23. Han Liu & Ying Liu & Yonglian Wang, 2021. "Exploring the influence of economic policy uncertainty on the relationship between tourism and economic growth with an MF-VAR model," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(5), pages 1081-1100, August.
    24. Junxiong Li & Alan G. Hallsworth & J. Andres Coca‐Stefaniak, 2020. "Changing Grocery Shopping Behaviours Among Chinese Consumers At The Outset Of The COVID‐19 Outbreak," Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, Royal Dutch Geographical Society KNAG, vol. 111(3), pages 574-583, July.

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