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Estimating the Impact of Avian Flu on International Tourism Demand Using Panel Data

Author

Listed:
  • Hsiao-I Kuo

    (Department of Senior Citizen Service Management, Chaoyang University of Technology, Taiwan)

  • Chia-Lin Chang
  • Bing-Wen Huang
  • Chi-Chung Chen
  • Michael McAleer

    (Econometric Institute, Erasmus University, Rotterdam, The Netherlands and Department of Applied Economics, National Chung Hsing University, Taichung, Taiwan)

Abstract

This paper investigates the impacts of avian flu on global and Asian tourism using panel data procedures. Both static and dynamic fixed effects panel data models are adopted to estimate the impacts of this infectious disease. The empirical results from static and dynamic fixed effects panel data models are consistent and indicate that the number of affected poultry outbreaks has significant impacts on the international tourism of global and Asian affected countries. The high mortality rate among humans, the potential of a global flu pandemic and some media frenzy with hype and speculation might adversely affect the images of these infected destinations as a safe tourist destination. Moreover, it was found that the average damage to Asian tourism was more serious, which might have been induced by an ineffective suppression in numerous Asian infected countries. In addition, Asia was the earliest affected region and the area infected most seriously by avian flu, both in humans and in poultry. Since the potential risks and damage arising from avian flu and the subsequent pandemic influenza are much greater than for previous diseases, the need to take necessary precautions in the event of an outbreak of avian flu and pandemic influenza warrants further attention and action in modelling and managing international tourism demand and risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Hsiao-I Kuo & Chia-Lin Chang & Bing-Wen Huang & Chi-Chung Chen & Michael McAleer, 2009. "Estimating the Impact of Avian Flu on International Tourism Demand Using Panel Data," Tourism Economics, , vol. 15(3), pages 501-511, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:15:y:2009:i:3:p:501-511
    DOI: 10.5367/000000009789036611
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
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    13. Chih-Hai Yang & Hsun-Yu Lin, 2014. "Revisiting the Relationship between World Heritage Sites and Tourism," Tourism Economics, , vol. 20(1), pages 73-86, February.
    14. Yap, Ghialy & Allen, David, 2011. "Investigating other leading indicators influencing Australian domestic tourism demand," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 81(7), pages 1365-1374.
    15. Neelu Seetaram & Sylvain Petit, 2012. "Panel data analysis in Tourism Research," Post-Print hal-01831529, HAL.
    16. João-Pedro Ferreira & Christa D. Court & Estefania Basurto-Cedeño & Lori Pennington-Gray, 2024. "Using the 2016 Zika outbreak to estimate the potential tourism impacts of a Chikungunya event in Florida," Tourism Economics, , vol. 30(4), pages 1062-1080, June.
    17. Junxiong Li & Alan G. Hallsworth & J. Andres Coca‐Stefaniak, 2020. "Changing Grocery Shopping Behaviours Among Chinese Consumers At The Outset Of The COVID‐19 Outbreak," Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, Royal Dutch Geographical Society KNAG, vol. 111(3), pages 574-583, July.
    18. Xi Wu & Adam Blake, 2023. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Crisis on Air Travel Demand: Some Evidence From China," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(1), pages 21582440231, January.
    19. Marija Bratić & Aleksandar Radivojević & Nenad Stojiljković & Olivera Simović & Emil Juvan & Miha Lesjak & Eva Podovšovnik, 2021. "Should I Stay or Should I Go? Tourists’ COVID-19 Risk Perception and Vacation Behavior Shift," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-19, March.
    20. Izzeldin, Marwan & Muradoğlu, Yaz Gülnur & Pappas, Vasileios & Sivaprasad, Sheeja, 2021. "The impact of Covid-19 on G7 stock markets volatility: Evidence from a ST-HAR model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    21. Zhang, Ke & Hou, Yuansi & Li, Gang, 2020. "Threat of infectious disease during an outbreak: Influence on tourists' emotional responses to disadvantaged price inequality," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    22. Martin Falk & Eva Hagsten & Xiang Lin, 2023. "Uneven domestic tourism demand in times of pandemic," Tourism Economics, , vol. 29(3), pages 596-611, May.

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