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Exploring the Effects of COVID-19 Containment Policies on Crime: An Empirical Analysis of the Short-term Aftermath in Los Angeles

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  • Gian Maria Campedelli
  • Alberto Aziani
  • Serena Favarin

Abstract

This work investigates whether and how COVID-19 containment policies had an immediate impact on crime trends in Los Angeles. The analysis is conducted using Bayesian structural time-series and focuses on nine crime categories and on the overall crime count, daily monitored from January 1st 2017 to March 28th 2020. We concentrate on two post-intervention time windows - from March 4th to March 16th and from March 4th to March 28th 2020 - to dynamically assess the short-term effects of mild and strict policies. In Los Angeles, overall crime has significantly decreased, as well as robbery, shoplifting, theft, and battery. No significant effect has been detected for vehicle theft, burglary, assault with a deadly weapon, intimate partner assault, and homicide. Results suggest that, in the first weeks after the interventions are put in place, social distancing impacts more directly on instrumental and less serious crimes. Policy implications are also discussed.

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  • Gian Maria Campedelli & Alberto Aziani & Serena Favarin, 2020. "Exploring the Effects of COVID-19 Containment Policies on Crime: An Empirical Analysis of the Short-term Aftermath in Los Angeles," Papers 2003.11021, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2020.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2003.11021
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    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19
    2. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Behavioral issues

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    Cited by:

    1. Langton, Samuel & Dixon, Anthony & Farrell, Graham, 2021. "Small area variation in crime effects of COVID-19 policies in England and Wales," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    2. Carter, Travis M. & Turner, Noah D., 2021. "Examining the immediate effects of COVID-19 on residential and commercial burglaries in Michigan: An interrupted time-series analysis," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    3. Mohler, George & Bertozzi, Andrea L. & Carter, Jeremy & Short, Martin B. & Sledge, Daniel & Tita, George E. & Uchida, Craig D. & Brantingham, P. Jeffrey, 2020. "Impact of social distancing during COVID-19 pandemic on crime in Los Angeles and Indianapolis," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    4. Langton, Samuel & Farrell, Graham & Dixon, Anthony, 2020. "Six Months In: Pandemic Crime Trends in England and Wales," SocArXiv t7ne8, Center for Open Science.
    5. Matthew Valasik & Shannon E. Reid, 2021. "East Side Story: Disaggregating Gang Homicides in East Los Angeles," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-17, February.
    6. Hodgkinson, Tarah & Andresen, Martin A. & Frank, Richard & Pringle, Darren, 2022. "Crime down in the Paris of the prairies: Spatial effects of COVID-19 and crime during lockdown in Saskatoon, Canada," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    7. Arenas-Arroyo, Esther & Fernández-Kranz, Daniel & Nollenberger, Natalia, 2020. "Can't Leave You Now! Intimate Partner Violence under Forced Coexistence and Economic Uncertainty," IZA Discussion Papers 13570, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Lin Liu & Jiayu Chang & Dongping Long & Heng Liu, 2022. "Analyzing the Impact of COVID-19 Lockdowns on Violent Crime," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(23), pages 1-10, November.
    9. Kandaswamy Paramasivan & Rahul Subburaj & Saish Jaiswal & Nandan Sudarsanam, 2022. "Empirical evidence of the impact of mobility on property crimes during the first two waves of the COVID-19 pandemic," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 1-14, December.
    10. Carlos Díaz & Sebastian Fossati & Nicolás Trajtenberg, 2022. "Stay at home if you can: COVID‐19 stay‐at‐home guidelines and local crime," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(4), pages 1067-1113, December.
    11. Iskandar Zainuddin Rela & Zaimah Ramli & Muhammad Zamrun Firihu & Weka Widayati & Abd Hair Awang & Nasaruddin Nasaruddin, 2022. "COVID-19 Risk Management and Stakeholder Action Strategies: Conceptual Frameworks for Community Resilience in the Context of Indonesia," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(15), pages 1-19, July.
    12. Giulia Lausi & Alessandra Pizzo & Clarissa Cricenti & Michela Baldi & Rita Desiderio & Anna Maria Giannini & Emanuela Mari, 2021. "Intimate Partner Violence during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Review of the Phenomenon from Victims’ and Help Professionals’ Perspectives," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(12), pages 1-17, June.
    13. Payne, Jason Leslie & Langfield, Cameron Thomas, 2021. "Drug offence detection during the pandemic: a spatiotemporal study of drug markets," SocArXiv sbh7j, Center for Open Science.
    14. Langton, Samuel & Dixon, Anthony & Farrell, Graham, 2021. "Small area variation in crime effects of COVID-19 policies in England and Wales," SocArXiv cw6a4, Center for Open Science.

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