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The Effect of Natural Gas Shortages on the Mexican Economy

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  • Alcaraz Carlo
  • Villalvazo Martin Sergio

Abstract

The Mexican economy experienced a shortage of natural gas from the second quarter of 2012 through the second half of 2013. In order to deal with this problem, the state-owned national supplier of natural gas (Pemex) implemented a system that restricts the amount of natural gas used by the manufacturing sector. With this information, we have constructed a "shortage index" that represents the percentage of natural gas restricted per month in each region. We quantify the effect of natural gas shortages on the manufacturing sector and the GDP using a panel data model with state and time fixed effects. We estimate that the natural gas shortage reduced the Mexican GDP annual growth rate by 0.28 percentage points in the second quarter of 2013.

Suggested Citation

  • Alcaraz Carlo & Villalvazo Martin Sergio, 2016. "The Effect of Natural Gas Shortages on the Mexican Economy," Working Papers 2016-10, Banco de México.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2016-10
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bharat Kumar Meher & Iqbal Thonse Hawaldar & Latasha Mohapatra & Adel M. Sarea, 2020. "The Impact of COVID-19 on Price Volatility of Crude Oil and Natural Gas Listed on Multi Commodity Exchange of India," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(5), pages 422-431.
    2. Raymond Li & Chi-Keung Woo & Asher Tishler & Jay Zarnikau, 2022. "Price Responsiveness of Residential Demand for Natural Gas in the United States," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-22, June.
    3. Gao, Yanyan & Zheng, Jianghuai, 2022. "Clearing the air through pipes? An evaluation of the air pollution reduction effect of China's natural gas pipeline projects," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    4. Li, Raymond & Woo, Chi-Keung & Tishler, Asher & Zarnikau, Jay, 2022. "How price responsive is industrial demand for natural gas in the United States?," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    5. Li, Raymond & Woo, Chi-Keung & Tishler, Asher & Zarnikau, Jay, 2022. "Price responsiveness of commercial demand for natural gas in the US," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
    6. Matheus Belucio & Renato Santiago & José Alberto Fuinhas & Luiz Braun & José Antunes, 2022. "The Impact of Natural Gas, Oil, and Renewables Consumption on Carbon Dioxide Emissions: European Evidence," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-16, July.
    7. Haoying Wang & Rafael Garduno Rivera, 2022. "The Growing US-Mexico Natural Gas Trade and Its Regional Economic Impacts in Mexico," Papers 2208.06928, arXiv.org.
    8. Ibarra-Ramírez Raúl, 2021. "The Yield Curve as a Predictor of Economic Activity in Mexico: The Role of the Term Premium," Working Papers 2021-07, Banco de México.
    9. Chai, Jian & Zhang, Xiaokong & Lu, Quanying & Zhang, Xuejun & Wang, Yabo, 2021. "Research on imbalance between supply and demand in China's natural gas market under the double-track price system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    10. Hailemariam, Abebe & Smyth, Russell, 2019. "What drives volatility in natural gas prices?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 731-742.
    11. Beyca, Omer Faruk & Ervural, Beyzanur Cayir & Tatoglu, Ekrem & Ozuyar, Pinar Gokcin & Zaim, Selim, 2019. "Using machine learning tools for forecasting natural gas consumption in the province of Istanbul," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 937-949.
    12. Anton Pichler & Jan Hurt & Tobias Reisch & Johannes Stangl & Stefan Thurner, 2024. "Economic impacts of a drastic gas supply shock and short-term mitigation strategies," Papers 2409.07981, arXiv.org.
    13. Murshed, Muntasir, 2023. "Efficacies of technological progress and renewable energy transition in amplifying national electrification rates: contextual evidence from developing countries," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    14. Wang, TianTian & Zhang, Dayong & Clive Broadstock, David, 2019. "Financialization, fundamentals, and the time-varying determinants of US natural gas prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 707-719.
    15. Chen, Jiandong & Yu, Jie & Ai, Bowei & Song, Malin & Hou, Wenxuan, 2019. "Determinants of global natural gas consumption and import–export flows," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 588-602.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Public Economy;

    JEL classification:

    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • H40 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - General
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology

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