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Investigating other leading indicators influencing Australian domestic tourism demand

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  • Yap, Ghialy
  • Allen, David

Abstract

In the tourism demand literature, much of the research focuses on income and price variables as demand determinants for travel. Nevertheless, the literature has neglected other possible indicators such as consumers’ perceptions of the future course of the economy, household debt and the number of hours worked in paid jobs. In fact, several studies found that these indicators could influence consumers in making decisions to travel. In this paper, we examine whether there are other indicators that can influence future Australian domestic tourism demand. The econometric model used in this study is a panel three-stage least squares (3SLS) model. Using the data on Australian domestic tourism demand, the empirical results reveal several points: first, it is found that the consumer sentiment index has significant impacts on VFR, but not on holiday tourism. Furthermore, the business confidence index has no influence on business tourism demand. The study also finds that an increase in household debt could encourage more Australians to travel domestically, indicating that Australians may consider increasing debt as their confidence to spend increases. Lastly, working hours have a statistically significant effect in the case of holiday tourism data.

Suggested Citation

  • Yap, Ghialy & Allen, David, 2011. "Investigating other leading indicators influencing Australian domestic tourism demand," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 81(7), pages 1365-1374.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:matcom:v:81:y:2011:i:7:p:1365-1374
    DOI: 10.1016/j.matcom.2010.05.005
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    4. Shaidathul Jemin, 2023. "The Relationship between Macroeconomic Factors and Tourism Demand for OIC Countries ," GATR Journals jber238, Global Academy of Training and Research (GATR) Enterprise.
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    6. Noelia Oses & Jon Kepa Gerrikagoitia & Aurkene Alzua, 2016. "Modelling and prediction of a destination’s monthly average daily rate and occupancy rate based on hotel room prices offered online," Tourism Economics, , vol. 22(6), pages 1380-1403, December.
    7. Dragouni, Mina & Filis, George & Gavriilidis, Konstantinos & Santamaria, Daniel, 2016. "Sentiment, mood and outbound tourism demand," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 80-96.
    8. Yap, Ghialy, 2013. "The impacts of exchange rates on Australia's domestic and outbound travel markets," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 139-150.
    9. Chiang-Ming Chen, 2013. "Research Note: Estimating the Work Time Effect on Hotel Room Demand," Tourism Economics, , vol. 19(6), pages 1461-1466, December.
    10. Wang, Yu Shan, 2014. "Effects of budgetary constraints on international tourism expenditures," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 9-18.
    11. Sagaert, Yves R. & Aghezzaf, El-Houssaine & Kourentzes, Nikolaos & Desmet, Bram, 2018. "Tactical sales forecasting using a very large set of macroeconomic indicators," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 264(2), pages 558-569.
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