IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v12y2020i18p7585-d413547.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impact of Climate Change in West Africa on Cereal Production Per Capita in 2050

Author

Listed:
  • Dimitri Defrance

    (UMR ABSYS, INRAE, CIRAD, Montpellier SupAgro, CHEAM-IAMM, UMR SYSTEM, 34060 Montpellier, France
    UMR Eco&Sols, IRD, CIRAD, INRAE, Montpellier SupAgro, Université Montpellier, 34060 Montpellier, France)

  • Benjamin Sultan

    (UMR ESPACE-DEV, Université Montpellier, IRD, Université Guyane, Université Réunion, Université Antilles, Université Avignon, 34090 Montpellier, France)

  • Mathieu Castets

    (UMR TETIS, CIRAD, INRAE, Maison de la Télédétection, 34090 Montpellier, France)

  • Adjoua Moise Famien

    (LOCEAN, Sorbonne Universités UPMC-CNRS-IRD-MNHN, IPSL, 75006 Paris, France
    LAPAMF-UFR SSMT, Université Félix Houphouët Boigny, Abidjan 22, 22BP582 Ivory Coast, France)

  • Christian Baron

    (UMR TETIS, CIRAD, INRAE, Maison de la Télédétection, 34090 Montpellier, France)

Abstract

Food security is a crucial issue in the Sahel and could be endangered by climate change and demographic pressure during the 21st century. Higher temperatures and changes in rainfall induced by global warming are threatening rainfed agriculture in this region while the population is expected to increase approximately three-fold until 2050. Our study quantifies the impact of climate change on food security by combining climate modelling (16 models from CMIP5), crop yield (simulated by agronomic model, SARRA-O) and demographic evolution (provided by UN projection) under two future climatic scenarios. We simulate yield for the main crops in five countries in West Africa and estimate the population pressure on crop production to assess the number of available cereal production per capita. We found that, although uncertain, the African monsoon evolution leads to an increase of rainfall in Eastern Sahel and a decrease in Western Sahel under the RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway) scenario from IPCC, leading to the higher temperature increase by the end of the 21st century. With regard to the abundance of food for the inhabitants, all the scenarios in each country show that in 2050, local agricultural production will be below 50 kg per capita. This situation can have impact on crop import and regional migration.

Suggested Citation

  • Dimitri Defrance & Benjamin Sultan & Mathieu Castets & Adjoua Moise Famien & Christian Baron, 2020. "Impact of Climate Change in West Africa on Cereal Production Per Capita in 2050," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-19, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:18:p:7585-:d:413547
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/18/7585/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/18/7585/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xu Tian & Xiaohua Yu, 2019. "Crop yield gap and yield convergence in African countries," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 11(6), pages 1305-1319, December.
    2. David Rowell & Catherine Senior & Michael Vellinga & Richard Graham, 2016. "Can climate projection uncertainty be constrained over Africa using metrics of contemporary performance?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(4), pages 621-633, February.
    3. Oweis, Theib & Hachum, Ahmed, 2009. "Optimizing supplemental irrigation: Tradeoffs between profitability and sustainability," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 96(3), pages 511-516, March.
    4. S. Lebel & L. Fleskens & P. Forster & L. Jackson & S. Lorenz, 2015. "Evaluation of In Situ Rainwater Harvesting as an Adaptation Strategy to Climate Change for Maize Production in Rainfed Africa," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(13), pages 4803-4816, October.
    5. David P. Rowell & Catherine A. Senior & Michael Vellinga & Richard J. Graham, 2016. "Can climate projection uncertainty be constrained over Africa using metrics of contemporary performance?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(4), pages 621-633, February.
    6. A. J. Challinor & J. Watson & D. B. Lobell & S. M. Howden & D. R. Smith & N. Chhetri, 2014. "A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(4), pages 287-291, April.
    7. Richard H. Moss & Jae A. Edmonds & Kathy A. Hibbard & Martin R. Manning & Steven K. Rose & Detlef P. van Vuuren & Timothy R. Carter & Seita Emori & Mikiko Kainuma & Tom Kram & Gerald A. Meehl & John F, 2010. "The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment," Nature, Nature, vol. 463(7282), pages 747-756, February.
    8. Mojisola O. Adeniyi, 2016. "The consequences of the IPCC AR5 RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios on precipitation in West Africa," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(2), pages 245-263, November.
    9. Kazi Ahmed & Guiling Wang & Miao Yu & Jawoo Koo & Liangzhi You, 2015. "Potential impact of climate change on cereal crop yield in West Africa," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 133(2), pages 321-334, November.
    10. Turner, Neil C. & Rao, K.P.C., 2013. "Simulation analysis of factors affecting sorghum yield at selected sites in eastern and southern Africa, with emphasis on increasing temperatures," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 53-62.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dilys S. MacCarthy & Myriam Adam & Bright S. Freduah & Benedicta Yayra Fosu-Mensah & Peter A. Y. Ampim & Mouhamed Ly & Pierre S. Traore & Samuel G. K. Adiku, 2021. "Climate Change Impact and Variability on Cereal Productivity among Smallholder Farmers under Future Production Systems in West Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-22, May.
    2. Adam Płachciak & Jakub Marcinkowski, 2022. "Humanitarian Assistance in G5 Sahel: Social Sustainability Context of Macrologistics Potential," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-25, July.
    3. Martin Schultze & Stephen Kankam & Safiétou Sanfo & Christine Fürst, 2024. "Agricultural Yield Responses to Climate Variabilities in West Africa: A Food Supply and Demand Analysis," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-22, March.
    4. Hamid El Bilali & Susanna Rokka & Generosa Calabrese & Teresa Borelli & Francesca Grazioli & Sheirita Reine Fanta Tietiambou & Jacques Nanema & Iro Dan Guimbo & Lawali Dambo & Bassirou Nouhou & Maria , 2024. "Conservation and Promotion of Neglected and Underutilized Crop Species in West Africa: Policy and Governance," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-20, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nicole Costa Resende Ferreira & Jarbas Honorio Miranda, 2021. "Projected changes in corn crop productivity and profitability in Parana, Brazil," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 3236-3250, March.
    2. Sabina Thaler & Herbert Formayer & Gerhard Kubu & Miroslav Trnka & Josef Eitzinger, 2021. "Effects of Bias-Corrected Regional Climate Projections and Their Spatial Resolutions on Crop Model Results under Different Climatic and Soil Conditions in Austria," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-39, October.
    3. Grundy, Michael J. & Bryan, Brett A. & Nolan, Martin & Battaglia, Michael & Hatfield-Dodds, Steve & Connor, Jeffery D. & Keating, Brian A., 2016. "Scenarios for Australian agricultural production and land use to 2050," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 70-83.
    4. Amin, Asad & Nasim, Wajid & Mubeen, Muhammad & Ahmad, Ashfaq & Nadeem, Muhammad & Urich, Peter & Fahad, Shah & Ahmad, Shakeel & Wajid, Aftab & Tabassum, Fareeha & Hammad, Hafiz Mohkum & Sultana, Syeda, 2018. "Simulated CSM-CROPGRO-cotton yield under projected future climate by SimCLIM for southern Punjab, Pakistan," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 213-222.
    5. Xu, Hanqing & Tian, Zhan & He, Xiaogang & Wang, Jun & Sun, Laixiang & Fischer, Günther & Fan, Dongli & Zhong, Honglin & Wu, Wei & Pope, Edward & Kent, Chris & Liu, Junguo, 2019. "Future increases in irrigation water requirement challenge the water-food nexus in the northeast farming region of China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 594-604.
    6. Vasilii Erokhin & Alexander Esaulko & Elena Pismennaya & Evgeny Golosnoy & Olga Vlasova & Anna Ivolga, 2021. "Combined Impact of Climate Change and Land Qualities on Winter Wheat Yield in Central Fore-Caucasus: The Long-Term Retrospective Study," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-28, December.
    7. Wiebe, Keith & Sulser, Timothy B & Dunston, Shahnila & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Fuglie, Keith & Willenbockel, Dirk & Nelson, Gerald C., 2020. "Modeling impacts of faster productivity growth to inform the CGIAR initiative on Crops to End Hunger," SocArXiv h2g6r, Center for Open Science.
    8. Ambarish V. Karmalkar & Jeanne M. Thibeault & Alexander M. Bryan & Anji Seth, 2019. "Identifying credible and diverse GCMs for regional climate change studies—case study: Northeastern United States," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 154(3), pages 367-386, June.
    9. Seshagiri Rao Kolusu & Christian Siderius & Martin C. Todd & Ajay Bhave & Declan Conway & Rachel James & Richard Washington & Robel Geressu & Julien J. Harou & Japhet J. Kashaigili, 2021. "Sensitivity of projected climate impacts to climate model weighting: multi-sector analysis in eastern Africa," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 1-20, February.
    10. Guiomar Carranza-Gallego & Gloria I. Guzmán & Roberto Garcia-Ruíz & Manuel González de Molina & Eduardo Aguilera, 2019. "Addressing the Role of Landraces in the Sustainability of Mediterranean Agroecosystems," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(21), pages 1-16, October.
    11. Cai, Yiyong & Newth, David & Finnigan, John & Gunasekera, Don, 2015. "A hybrid energy-economy model for global integrated assessment of climate change, carbon mitigation and energy transformation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 381-395.
    12. Chateau, J. & Dellink, R. & Lanzi, E. & Magne, B., 2012. "Long-term economic growth and environmental pressure: reference scenarios for future global projections," Conference papers 332249, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    13. A. N. Hristov & A. T. Degaetano & C. A. Rotz & E. Hoberg & R. H. Skinner & T. Felix & H. Li & P. H. Patterson & G. Roth & M. Hall & T. L. Ott & L. H. Baumgard & W. Staniar & R. M. Hulet & C. J. Dell &, 2018. "Climate change effects on livestock in the Northeast US and strategies for adaptation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(1), pages 33-45, January.
    14. Namra Ghaffar & Bushra Noreen & Maryam Muhammad Ali & Amna Ali, 2021. "Rice Yield Estimation in Sawat Region Incorporating The Local Physio-Climatic Parameters," International Journal of Agriculture & Sustainable Development, 50sea, vol. 3(2), pages 46-50, June.
    15. Philip Antwi-Agyei & Andrew J. Dougill & Lindsay C. Stringer, 2017. "Assessing Coherence between Sector Policies and Climate Compatible Development: Opportunities for Triple Wins," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-16, November.
    16. F. Castro-Llanos & G. Hyman & J. Rubiano & J. Ramirez-Villegas & H. Achicanoy, 2019. "Climate change favors rice production at higher elevations in Colombia," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 24(8), pages 1401-1430, December.
    17. Gong, Ziqian & Baker, Justin S. & Wade, Christopher M. & Havlík, Petr, 2024. "Irrigation intensification in U.S. agriculture under climate change – an adaptation mechanism or trade-induced response?," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 343581, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    18. Thamo, Tas & Addai, Donkor & Kragt, Marit E. & Kingwell, Ross S. & Pannell, David J. & Robertson, Michael J., 2019. "Climate change reduces the mitigation obtainable from sequestration in an Australian farming system," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 63(4), October.
    19. Gerald Nelson & Jessica Bogard & Keith Lividini & Joanne Arsenault & Malcolm Riley & Timothy B. Sulser & Daniel Mason-D’Croz & Brendan Power & David Gustafson & Mario Herrero & Keith Wiebe & Karen Coo, 2018. "Income growth and climate change effects on global nutrition security to mid-century," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 1(12), pages 773-781, December.
    20. De Li Liu & Garry J. O’Leary & Brendan Christy & Ian Macadam & Bin Wang & Muhuddin R. Anwar & Anna Weeks, 2017. "Effects of different climate downscaling methods on the assessment of climate change impacts on wheat cropping systems," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 144(4), pages 687-701, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:18:p:7585-:d:413547. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.