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Simulated CSM-CROPGRO-cotton yield under projected future climate by SimCLIM for southern Punjab, Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Amin, Asad
  • Nasim, Wajid
  • Mubeen, Muhammad
  • Ahmad, Ashfaq
  • Nadeem, Muhammad
  • Urich, Peter
  • Fahad, Shah
  • Ahmad, Shakeel
  • Wajid, Aftab
  • Tabassum, Fareeha
  • Hammad, Hafiz Mohkum
  • Sultana, Syeda Refat
  • Anwar, Sumera
  • Baloch, Shahbaz Khan
  • Wahid, Abdul
  • Wilkerson, Carol Jo
  • Hoogenboom, Gerrit

Abstract

Climate change is widely affecting the agriculture sector in Pakistan with an estimated annual loss of up to 16 billion dollars by the end of 21st century (GOP, 2015). Southern Punjab is famous for producing more cotton than the entire province of Sindh in Pakistan but here the climatic variations largely affect the cotton production. The present research was carried out in Vehari, an arid area of Southern Punjab, Pakistan, to determine the intensity of the climatic impacts on the projected agricultural production of cotton in southern Punjab for 2025 and 2050 using SimCLIM(climate model) with CSM (crop simulation model)-CROPGRO-Cotton by comparing with observed data (2013 and 2014).The integrated assessment model (IAM) SimCLIM uses a statistical approach for regional downscaling. Scenarios for two general circulation models (GCMs) (BCC-CSM1–1 and MIROC5) and three greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCP-8.5, 6.0, 4.5) were developed. The three levels of phosphorous (0, 57, and 114kg ha−1) were applied to find the yield output of cotton cultivars (MNH-886 and FH-142) for the prediction of development and yield with different GCMs. The model predicted that FH-142 would give a higher percentage yield than MNH-886 for 2025 and 2050; the lowest percentage yield would be for MNH-886 at maturity for three RCPs. The lowest percentage change in the yield was projected for MNH-886 by RCP-8.5 (−0.77) and (−0.85) for 2025 and 2050, respectively. Farmers might have to apply a moderate level of phosphorous (57kg P ha−1)to avoid the potential threat of climate change. Both the cultivars MNH-886 and FH-142 are suitable for 57kg P ha−1, but cultivar FH-142 performed better when compared to MNH-886 for GCM and three RCPs.

Suggested Citation

  • Amin, Asad & Nasim, Wajid & Mubeen, Muhammad & Ahmad, Ashfaq & Nadeem, Muhammad & Urich, Peter & Fahad, Shah & Ahmad, Shakeel & Wajid, Aftab & Tabassum, Fareeha & Hammad, Hafiz Mohkum & Sultana, Syeda, 2018. "Simulated CSM-CROPGRO-cotton yield under projected future climate by SimCLIM for southern Punjab, Pakistan," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 213-222.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:167:y:2018:i:c:p:213-222
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2017.05.010
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    2. Muntwyler, Anna & Panagos, Panos & Morari, Francesco & Berti, Antonio & Jarosch, Klaus A. & Mayer, Jochen & Lugato, Emanuele, 2023. "Modelling phosphorus dynamics in four European long-term experiments," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    3. Syed Ali Asghar Shah & Muhammad Sajid Mehmood & Ihsan Muhammad & Muhammad Irfan Ahamad & Huixin Wu, 2024. "Adapting Harvests: A Comprehensive Study of Farmers’ Perceptions, Adaptation Strategies, and Climatic Trends in Dera Ghazi Khan, Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(16), pages 1-21, August.
    4. Leo, Stephen & De Antoni Migliorati, Massimiliano & Nguyen, Trung H. & Grace, Peter R., 2023. "Combining remote sensing-derived management zones and an auto-calibrated crop simulation model to determine optimal nitrogen fertilizer rates," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    5. Zheng, Zhen & Hoogenboom, Gerrit & Cai, Huanjie & Wang, Zikai, 2020. "Winter wheat production on the Guanzhong Plain of Northwest China under projected future climate with SimCLIM," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    6. Adnan Arshad & Muhammad Ali Raza & Yue Zhang & Lizhen Zhang & Xuejiao Wang & Mukhtar Ahmed & Muhammad Habib-ur-Rehman, 2021. "Impact of Climate Warming on Cotton Growth and Yields in China and Pakistan: A Regional Perspective," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-22, January.

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