IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v154y2019i3d10.1007_s10584-019-02411-y.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Identifying credible and diverse GCMs for regional climate change studies—case study: Northeastern United States

Author

Listed:
  • Ambarish V. Karmalkar

    (University of Massachusetts Amherst, Massachusetts)

  • Jeanne M. Thibeault

    (University of Connecticut)

  • Alexander M. Bryan

    (University of Massachusetts Amherst, Massachusetts)

  • Anji Seth

    (University of Connecticut)

Abstract

Climate data obtained from global climate models (GCMs) form the basis of most studies of regional climate change and its impacts. Using the northeastern U.S. as a test case, we develop a framework to systematically sub-select reliable models for use in climate change studies in the region. Model performance over the historical period is evaluated first for a wide variety of standard and process metrics including large-scale atmospheric circulation features that drive regional climate variability. The inclusion of process-based metrics allows identification of credible models in capturing key processes relevant for the climate of the northeastern U.S. Model performance is then used in conjunction with the assessment of redundancy in model projections, especially in summer precipitation, to eliminate models that have better performing counterparts. Finally, we retain some mixed-performing models to maintain the range of climate model uncertainty, required by the fact that model biases are not strongly related to their respective projections. This framework leads to the retention of 16 of 36 CMIP5 GCMs that (a) have a satisfactory historical performance for a variety of metrics and (b) provide diverse climate projections consistent with uncertainties in the multi-model ensemble (MME). Overall, the models show significant variations in their performance across metrics and seasons with none emerging as the best model in all metrics. The retained set reduces the number of models by more than one half, easing the computational burden of using the entire CMIP5 MME, while still maintaining a wide range of projections for risk assessment. The retention of some mixed-performing models to maintain ensemble uncertainty suggests a potential to narrow the ranges in temperature and precipitation. But any further refinement should be based on a more detailed analysis of models in capturing regional climate variability and extremes to avoid providing overconfident projections.

Suggested Citation

  • Ambarish V. Karmalkar & Jeanne M. Thibeault & Alexander M. Bryan & Anji Seth, 2019. "Identifying credible and diverse GCMs for regional climate change studies—case study: Northeastern United States," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 154(3), pages 367-386, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:154:y:2019:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-019-02411-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-019-02411-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-019-02411-y
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-019-02411-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Clara Deser & Reto Knutti & Susan Solomon & Adam S. Phillips, 2012. "Communication of the role of natural variability in future North American climate," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(11), pages 775-779, November.
    2. David Rowell & Catherine Senior & Michael Vellinga & Richard Graham, 2016. "Can climate projection uncertainty be constrained over Africa using metrics of contemporary performance?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(4), pages 621-633, February.
    3. Penny Whetton & Kevin Hennessy & John Clarke & Kathleen McInnes & David Kent, 2012. "Use of Representative Climate Futures in impact and adaptation assessment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 115(3), pages 433-442, December.
    4. David P. Rowell & Catherine A. Senior & Michael Vellinga & Richard J. Graham, 2016. "Can climate projection uncertainty be constrained over Africa using metrics of contemporary performance?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(4), pages 621-633, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Seshagiri Rao Kolusu & Christian Siderius & Martin C. Todd & Ajay Bhave & Declan Conway & Rachel James & Richard Washington & Robel Geressu & Julien J. Harou & Japhet J. Kashaigili, 2021. "Sensitivity of projected climate impacts to climate model weighting: multi-sector analysis in eastern Africa," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 1-20, February.
    2. Dimitri Defrance & Benjamin Sultan & Mathieu Castets & Adjoua Moise Famien & Christian Baron, 2020. "Impact of Climate Change in West Africa on Cereal Production Per Capita in 2050," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-19, September.
    3. Taylor, Chris & Cullen, Brendan & D'Occhio, Michael & Rickards, Lauren & Eckard, Richard, 2018. "Trends in wheat yields under representative climate futures: Implications for climate adaptation," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 1-10.
    4. Lauren Rickards & John Wiseman & Taegen Edwards & Che Biggs, 2014. "The Problem of Fit: Scenario Planning and Climate Change Adaptation in the Public Sector," Environment and Planning C, , vol. 32(4), pages 641-662, August.
    5. Michael R. Grose & James S. Risbey & Penny H. Whetton, 2017. "Tracking regional temperature projections from the early 1990s in light of variations in regional warming, including ‘warming holes’," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 140(2), pages 307-322, January.
    6. S. Camici & L. Brocca & T. Moramarco, 2017. "Accuracy versus variability of climate projections for flood assessment in central Italy," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(2), pages 273-286, March.
    7. Christopher W. Callahan & Justin S. Mankin, 2022. "National attribution of historical climate damages," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(3), pages 1-19, June.
    8. Chenyao Yang & Helder Fraga & Wim Ieperen & Henrique Trindade & João A. Santos, 2019. "Effects of climate change and adaptation options on winter wheat yield under rainfed Mediterranean conditions in southern Portugal," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 154(1), pages 159-178, May.
    9. Buckwell, Andrew & Fleming, Christopher & Smart, James & Mackey, Brendan & Ware, Daniel & Hallgren, Willow & Sahin, Oz & Nalau, Johanna, 2018. "Valuing aggregated ecosystem services at a national and regional scale for Vanuatu using a remotely operable, rapid assessment methodology," 2018 Conference (62nd), February 7-9, 2018, Adelaide, Australia 273524, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    10. Charles D. Kolstad & Frances C. Moore, 2020. "Estimating the Economic Impacts of Climate Change Using Weather Observations," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 14(1), pages 1-24.
    11. Wenhao Dong & Yi Ming & Yi Deng & Zhaoyi Shen, 2024. "Recent wetting trend over Taklamakan and Gobi Desert dominated by internal variability," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    12. Shuai-Lei Yao & Jing-Jia Luo & Gang Huang, 2016. "Internal Variability-Generated Uncertainty in East Asian Climate Projections Estimated with 40 CCSM3 Ensembles," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(3), pages 1-12, March.
    13. Lu Dong & L. Ruby Leung & Fengfei Song & Jian Lu, 2021. "Uncertainty in El Niño-like warming and California precipitation changes linked by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    14. Astrid Kause & Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Fai Fung & Andrea Taylor & Jason Lowe, 2020. "Visualizations of Projected Rainfall Change in the United Kingdom: An Interview Study about User Perceptions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-21, April.
    15. Emanuele Bevacqua & Laura Suarez-Gutierrez & Aglaé Jézéquel & Flavio Lehner & Mathieu Vrac & Pascal Yiou & Jakob Zscheischler, 2023. "Advancing research on compound weather and climate events via large ensemble model simulations," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-16, December.
    16. Stephan Harrison & Tim Mighall & David A. Stainforth & Philip Allen & Mark Macklin & Edward Anderson & Jasper Knight & Dmitri Mauquoy & David Passmore & Brice Rea & Matteo Spagnolo & Sarah Shannon, 2019. "Uncertainty in geomorphological responses to climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 156(1), pages 69-86, September.
    17. Chelsea L. Parker & Priscilla A. Mooney & Melinda A. Webster & Linette N. Boisvert, 2022. "The influence of recent and future climate change on spring Arctic cyclones," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-14, December.
    18. Thomas Mendlik & Andreas Gobiet, 2016. "Selecting climate simulations for impact studies based on multivariate patterns of climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 381-393, April.
    19. Cha Zhao & François Brissette, 2022. "Impacts of large-scale oscillations on climate variability over North America," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 173(1), pages 1-21, July.
    20. Nayruti Trivedi & Murali Venkatraman & Clement Chu & Ivan Cole, 2014. "Effect of climate change on corrosion rates of structures in Australia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 124(1), pages 133-146, May.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:154:y:2019:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-019-02411-y. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.