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The consequences of the IPCC AR5 RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios on precipitation in West Africa

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  • Mojisola O. Adeniyi

    (University of Ibadan)

Abstract

Projected changes in precipitation for the 21st century using Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 Wm−2 are analysed over a limited domain of West Africa. These analyses are done to help address the challenges of climate change impact assessment over this highly vulnerable region. Thirty general circulation model historical precipitation simulations are evaluated using mean absolute error with optimum value of two standard deviations in CRU data. Relatively skillful models for precipitation simulation over Western West Africa (WWA), Central Guinea Coast (CGC), Eastern Guinea Coast (EGC), Lower Eastern Sahel (LES), and Eastern Sahel (ES) are selected for precipitation projection analysis. LES and ES are expected to be significantly wetter throughout the 21st century with reference to 1985-2004 simulations. Delayed onset at EGC and WWA, false onset at CGC coupled with significant increase in precipitation rate at LES and ES may result in crop failure, displacement and destruction of infrastructure if no adaptation strategy is put in place.

Suggested Citation

  • Mojisola O. Adeniyi, 2016. "The consequences of the IPCC AR5 RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios on precipitation in West Africa," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(2), pages 245-263, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:139:y:2016:i:2:d:10.1007_s10584-016-1774-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1774-2
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    1. Detlef Vuuren & Jae Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & Allison Thomson & Kathy Hibbard & George Hurtt & Tom Kram & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Toshihiko Masui & Malte Meinshausen & N, 2011. "The representative concentration pathways: an overview," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 5-31, November.
    2. Shilpa Rao and Keywan Riahi, 2006. "The Role of Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases in Climate Change Mitigation: Long-term Scenarios for the 21st Century," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 177-200.
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    Cited by:

    1. Oudah Yobom, 2020. "Climate change and variability: empirical evidence for countries and agroecological zones of the Sahel," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 159(3), pages 365-384, April.
    2. Dimitri Defrance & Benjamin Sultan & Mathieu Castets & Adjoua Moise Famien & Christian Baron, 2020. "Impact of Climate Change in West Africa on Cereal Production Per Capita in 2050," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-19, September.
    3. Mohammad Amin Asadi Zarch, 2022. "Past and Future Global Drought Assessment," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(13), pages 5259-5276, October.

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