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Numerical Simulation of the Period 1971–2100 over the Mediterranean Area with a Regional Model, Scenario SRES-A1B

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  • Bucchignani Edoardo

    (REMHI Division Euro Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change (CMCC), 81043 Capua, Italy
    Meteo System & Instrumentation Laboratory, Italian Aerospace Research Center (CIRA), 81043 Capua, Italy)

  • Mercogliano Paola

    (REMHI Division Euro Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change (CMCC), 81043 Capua, Italy
    Meteo System & Instrumentation Laboratory, Italian Aerospace Research Center (CIRA), 81043 Capua, Italy)

  • Montesarchio Myriam

    (REMHI Division Euro Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change (CMCC), 81043 Capua, Italy
    Meteo System & Instrumentation Laboratory, Italian Aerospace Research Center (CIRA), 81043 Capua, Italy)

  • Zollo Alessandra Lucia

    (REMHI Division Euro Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change (CMCC), 81043 Capua, Italy
    Meteo System & Instrumentation Laboratory, Italian Aerospace Research Center (CIRA), 81043 Capua, Italy)

Abstract

In this work, we discuss the results of numerical simulations performed with the regional model COSMO-CLM over the Mediterranean area at a spatial resolution of 14 km, employing an optimized model configuration. An assessment of model capabilities to reproduce the main features of the recent and past climate has been performed, using two different simulations: The first simulation is driven by the ERA40 Reanalysis and the second, by the CMCC-MED global model. Validation is performed through a comparison with the E-OBS dataset. Climate projections, according to the SRES A1B emission scenario, have been further analyzed in terms of change of 2-m temperature and precipitation, and have shown a significant warming expected at the end of the 21st Century, along with a general reduction in precipitation, particularly evident in spring and summer.

Suggested Citation

  • Bucchignani Edoardo & Mercogliano Paola & Montesarchio Myriam & Zollo Alessandra Lucia, 2017. "Numerical Simulation of the Period 1971–2100 over the Mediterranean Area with a Regional Model, Scenario SRES-A1B," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-17, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:9:y:2017:i:12:p:2192-:d:120512
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fredrik Boberg & Jens H. Christensen, 2012. "Overestimation of Mediterranean summer temperature projections due to model deficiencies," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(6), pages 433-436, June.
    2. Richard H. Moss & Jae A. Edmonds & Kathy A. Hibbard & Martin R. Manning & Steven K. Rose & Detlef P. van Vuuren & Timothy R. Carter & Seita Emori & Mikiko Kainuma & Tom Kram & Gerald A. Meehl & John F, 2010. "The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment," Nature, Nature, vol. 463(7282), pages 747-756, February.
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