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An Integrated Modelling Approach to Study Future Water Demand Vulnerability in the Montargil Reservoir Basin, Portugal

Author

Listed:
  • Carina Almeida

    (Centro de Ciência e Tecnologia do Ambiente e do Mar (MARETEC), Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1, 1049-001 Lisboa, Portugal
    AQUALOGUS, Rua do Mar da China N.º 1 Escritório 2.4, Parque das Nações, 1990-137 Lisboa, Portugal)

  • Tiago B. Ramos

    (Centro de Ciência e Tecnologia do Ambiente e do Mar (MARETEC), Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1, 1049-001 Lisboa, Portugal)

  • João Sobrinho

    (Centro de Ciência e Tecnologia do Ambiente e do Mar (MARETEC), Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1, 1049-001 Lisboa, Portugal)

  • Ramiro Neves

    (Centro de Ciência e Tecnologia do Ambiente e do Mar (MARETEC), Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1, 1049-001 Lisboa, Portugal)

  • Rodrigo Proença de Oliveira

    (Civil Engineering Research and Innovation for Sustainability (CERIS), Instituto Superior Técnico; Av. Rovisco Pais, 1, 1049-001 Lisboa, Portugal)

Abstract

This paper describes an integrated modelling approach to study water use vulnerability in a typical Mediterranean basin under different climate change projections. The soil water assessment tool (SWAT) and the MOHID (from modelo hidrodinâmico ) Water model were used to evaluate the impacts of two climate scenarios (GFDL-ESM2M and IPSL-CM5A-LR) on water availability in Montargil’s basin and reservoir (Portugal) during two decadal timelines (2030 and 2060). Reservoir performance metrics were estimated considering also two water demand scenarios: an average of the water demand in the last 10 years; and the largest annual demand of the last 10 years. The SWAT model results showed a future decrease of inflows to the reservoir, with its volumetric reliability decreasing from 100% in the historical simulation to about 60–70% in the IPSL-CM5A-LR climate scenario and 40–50% in the GFDL-ESM2M climate scenario. The time reliability also decreased to less than 30%, while the resiliency for the water demand decreased to an average 20–35% for both climate scenarios. These impacts indicate the importance of the managing systems in an integrative mode to prevent water resources reduction in the region.

Suggested Citation

  • Carina Almeida & Tiago B. Ramos & João Sobrinho & Ramiro Neves & Rodrigo Proença de Oliveira, 2019. "An Integrated Modelling Approach to Study Future Water Demand Vulnerability in the Montargil Reservoir Basin, Portugal," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-20, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:1:p:206-:d:194656
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    References listed on IDEAS

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