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Short-Term Power Forecasting Model for Photovoltaic Plants Based on Historical Similarity

Author

Listed:
  • Claudio Monteiro

    (Faculty of Engineering, University of Porto, Dr. Roberto Frias, Porto s/n 4200-465, Portugal)

  • Tiago Santos

    (Faculty of Engineering, University of Porto, Dr. Roberto Frias, Porto s/n 4200-465, Portugal)

  • L. Alfredo Fernandez-Jimenez

    (Electrical Engineering Department, University of La Rioja, Luis de Ulloa 20, Logroño 26004, Spain)

  • Ignacio J. Ramirez-Rosado

    (Electrical Engineering Department, University of Zaragoza, Maria de Luna 3, Zaragoza 50018, Spain)

  • M. Sonia Terreros-Olarte

    (Electrical Engineering Department, University of La Rioja, Luis de Ulloa 20, Logroño 26004, Spain)

Abstract

This paper proposes a new model for short-term forecasting of electric energy production in a photovoltaic (PV) plant. The model is called HIstorical SImilar MIning (HISIMI) model; its final structure is optimized by using a genetic algorithm, based on data mining techniques applied to historical cases composed by past forecasted values of weather variables, obtained from numerical tools for weather prediction, and by past production of electric power in a PV plant. The HISIMI model is able to supply spot values of power forecasts, and also the uncertainty, or probabilities, associated with those spot values, providing new useful information to users with respect to traditional forecasting models for PV plants. Such probabilities enable analysis and evaluation of risk associated with those spot forecasts, for example, in offers of energy sale for electricity markets. The results of spot forecasting of an illustrative example obtained with the HISIMI model for a real-life grid-connected PV plant, which shows high intra-hour variability of its actual power output, with forecasting horizons covering the following day, have improved those obtained with other two power spot forecasting models, which are a persistence model and an artificial neural network model.

Suggested Citation

  • Claudio Monteiro & Tiago Santos & L. Alfredo Fernandez-Jimenez & Ignacio J. Ramirez-Rosado & M. Sonia Terreros-Olarte, 2013. "Short-Term Power Forecasting Model for Photovoltaic Plants Based on Historical Similarity," Energies, MDPI, vol. 6(5), pages 1-20, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:6:y:2013:i:5:p:2624-2643:d:25898
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    Cited by:

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    2. Lan, Hai & Zhang, Chi & Hong, Ying-Yi & He, Yin & Wen, Shuli, 2019. "Day-ahead spatiotemporal solar irradiation forecasting using frequency-based hybrid principal component analysis and neural network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 247(C), pages 389-402.
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    5. Barukčić, M. & Hederić, Ž. & Hadžiselimović, M. & Seme, S., 2018. "A simple stochastic method for modelling the uncertainty of photovoltaic power production based on measured data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PB), pages 246-256.
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    7. Gandoman, Foad H. & Abdel Aleem, Shady H.E. & Omar, Noshin & Ahmadi, Abdollah & Alenezi, Faisal Q., 2018. "Short-term solar power forecasting considering cloud coverage and ambient temperature variation effects," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 793-805.
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    9. Zendehboudi, Sohrab & Rezaei, Nima & Lohi, Ali, 2018. "Applications of hybrid models in chemical, petroleum, and energy systems: A systematic review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 2539-2566.
    10. Promphak Dawan & Kobsak Sriprapha & Songkiate Kittisontirak & Terapong Boonraksa & Nitikorn Junhuathon & Wisut Titiroongruang & Surasak Niemcharoen, 2020. "Comparison of Power Output Forecasting on the Photovoltaic System Using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems and Particle Swarm Optimization-Artificial Neural Network Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-18, January.
    11. Ümmühan Başaran Filik & Tansu Filik & Ömer Nezih Gerek, 2018. "A Hysteresis Model for Fixed and Sun Tracking Solar PV Power Generation Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-15, March.
    12. Chih-Chiang Wei, 2019. "Evaluation of Photovoltaic Power Generation by Using Deep Learning in Solar Panels Installed in Buildings," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-18, September.
    13. Honglu Zhu & Xu Li & Qiao Sun & Ling Nie & Jianxi Yao & Gang Zhao, 2015. "A Power Prediction Method for Photovoltaic Power Plant Based on Wavelet Decomposition and Artificial Neural Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-15, December.
    14. Kihan Kim & Jin Hur, 2019. "Weighting Factor Selection of the Ensemble Model for Improving Forecast Accuracy of Photovoltaic Generating Resources," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-13, August.
    15. Mariz B. Arias & Sungwoo Bae, 2021. "Solar Photovoltaic Power Prediction Using Big Data Tools," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-19, December.
    16. Luca Massidda & Marino Marrocu, 2018. "Quantile Regression Post-Processing of Weather Forecast for Short-Term Solar Power Probabilistic Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-20, July.
    17. Jha, Sunil Kr. & Bilalovic, Jasmin & Jha, Anju & Patel, Nilesh & Zhang, Han, 2017. "Renewable energy: Present research and future scope of Artificial Intelligence," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 297-317.
    18. Fei Wang & Zhao Zhen & Chun Liu & Zengqiang Mi & Miadreza Shafie-khah & João P. S. Catalão, 2018. "Time-Section Fusion Pattern Classification Based Day-Ahead Solar Irradiance Ensemble Forecasting Model Using Mutual Iterative Optimization," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-17, January.
    19. Alfredo Nespoli & Emanuele Ogliari & Silvia Pretto & Michele Gavazzeni & Sonia Vigani & Franco Paccanelli, 2021. "Electrical Load Forecast by Means of LSTM: The Impact of Data Quality," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-11, February.
    20. Nguyen Gia Minh Thao & Kenko Uchida, 2018. "An Improved Interval Fuzzy Modeling Method: Applications to the Estimation of Photovoltaic/Wind/Battery Power in Renewable Energy Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-26, February.
    21. Yue Chen & Zhizhong Guo & Abebe Tilahun Tadie & Hongbo Li & Guizhong Wang & Yingwei Hou, 2019. "Tie-Line Reserve Power Probability Margin for Day-Ahead Dispatching in Power Systems with High Proportion Renewable Power Sources," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-23, December.
    22. Mohammed A. Bou-Rabee & Muhammad Yasin Naz & Imad ED. Albalaa & Shaharin Anwar Sulaiman, 2022. "BiLSTM Network-Based Approach for Solar Irradiance Forecasting in Continental Climate Zones," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-12, March.

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